Can someone explain why Dean is polling only 4% with the youth vote?

[Bertrand]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=755

by youth im referring to the 18-29 demographic. Are Zogbys numbers an anomaly (especially considering Sharpton and Clark quadruple him) or are the numbers true? If true, why?

Edit: i believe it's 18-29, not 30

[pruner]

1. the MOE is very high on the subgroups in that poll

for all we know, there could've only been 30 people in that age group who were polled.

[Bertrand]

3. what do you mean by "much"?

all i could find was "The margin of survey error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Error margins are higher in sub-groups." Even if the MOE was higher for the subgroups, Dean is still being topped by Sharpton and Clark by 4 times which im sure is indicative of it being correct, if the data is assumed to be valid.

[BuckeFushe]

2. They haven't taken their headphones off?

They're at the movies?

They're playing XBOX/PlayStation games.

They are too busy with school work?

They don't care?

[StClone]

13. They vote in a low numbers anyway

Guess a good guy like Dean should have an Arnoldesque acting career to attract them with really important issues.

[AntiLempa]

19. you're right. . .

College students do vote in low numbers. In a lot of districts, it is damn near impossible for us to a register. I had a hell of a time registering, and I am a full time resident.

A lot of my peers also see nothing to vote for. In 2000 we were left with Gore and Bush. I realize that Gore excites a lot of people on DU, but to folks my age he was more of a disappointment. His wife is toxic on music censorship and Lieberman is. . .well, he's Lieberman.

A lot of folks believe that third parties should at least be allowed into the debates. Instead the Democrats and Republicans lock out any candidate that isn't a D or an R. I Perot received too many votes after being allowed into the debates.

Even now it seems predetermined. Edwards, Mosely Braun, Sharpton, and Kucinich bust their asses on the campaign trail and barely anything is said about them. Clark announces and he is automatically the media and many dem insiders' golden boy. That's odd.

[MODemocrat]

32. Gore has never excited me, but he's so intelligent

That's so important when you're in charge of the whole damned country. Bush scares me to death, and anyone who can think straight should be. He has not done one good thing for this country, other than putting it in reverse, and ramming it in a ditch. As far as the media goes, they are all bought and paid for, and don't give any real news; look how they spin and twirl with Bush trying to make him look like he's worth something. :thumbsdown: :scared:

[JohnKleeb]

16. So we shouldnt breech out to the young vote?

Actually these arent "kids", 18-30 year olds are more adult than kid, now my age group 13-18 could be called that label and we dont vote. I go to movies often, I love my PS2 thank you :D, school work can be a hassle, and I for sure care. We need to try get youth support, this was what made President Clinton very well received. These arent kids we are talking about here, these are young votes. *takes headphones off*

[tsipple]

4. A Couple Reasons

1. It's VERY tough to poll that demographic. A lot of them are away at college...or war. :-(

2. The margin of error in those subsamples is enormous.

[awnavy]

5. Students favor Bush in Harvard poll

http://www.uwire.com/content/topnews102303002.html

(U-WIRE) CAMBRIDGE, Mass. -- College students are more likely to register as Republicans and support President Bush than the general public, according to a survey released Wednesday by Harvard University's Institute of Politics.
The nationwide poll of 1,202 undergraduates revealed that 61 percent approve of Bush's performance as president, compared to 53 percent of all voters.

College students, 81 percent of whom say they will definitely or probably vote in the 2004 elections, could tip the scales in next year's presidential race, the survey results indicated.

[JohnKleeb]

7. Christ the youth is right wing these days

:hi: I am of the slightly more younger generation. I am 16. Hopefully our subgeneration is hardcore liberal :shrug: I dont know personally. And on this poll I am curious to know being that I hear that Dean has a good following with the youth voters.

[camero]

8. This is Harvard mind you

The upper crust will always be for people like Bush.

[Bertrand]

9. They polled likely Democratic primary voters, not the general pop

but if the argument is that the kids are conservative, how is it that not only Wesley Clark but Al Sharpton is topping him considerably?

[Bertrand]

6. It doesnt list the margin of error

but as i said, two other candidates top him by alot so it shows they have a clear advantage within that demographic.

[dsc]

24. That depends on what the MOE actually is

The word quadrupled was used so I assume Clark and Sharpton are at 16 to Dean's 4. The MOE for the poll itself was 4.2. Even using that MOE Clark and Sharpton's 16 can be as low as 12 and Dean's 4 can be as high as 8. Make the MOE 6% which is not at all unreasonable and Clark and Sharpton could be down to 10 and Dean could be at 10. So this clear lead could be an illusion.

[AntiLempa]

10. I'm twenty two

I'm twenty two and have been called "left of left." For the sake of fairness I'll accept that label and leave my opinions out of this. With my job I work with college students on a daily basis. A majority of them (about 95%) consider themselves democrats or left of center. I would say that most of them support Clark, Gephardt, or Kerry. A lot of them like Sharpton and Kucinich but say thye don't have a snowball's chance in hell.

Dean takes a beating by these folks because they don't trust him. A common criticism is that he'll say whatever it takes to get support. Another common complaint is that he is a centrist that pretends to be more liberal than he is.

Just what I have heard. . .

[Kahuna]

12. Boy those kids are smark. God bless them.

They give me some hope for the future of our country.

[Skwmom]

25. I wish more adults were as smart as you kids.

It's your future at stake. I really hope we don't screw up this next election for you.

[Kahuna]

11. But...but... He's "Generation Dean....."

What an ego to make a proclamation like that. :eyes:

[w4rma]

15. Definitely *not* a McGovern-style candidate. Maybe Gingrch? (n/t)

[AntiLempa]

17. For the record

This 22 year old thinks Clark is worse than Dean. Not a personal attack, I just think it's funny that Edwards, Mosely Braun, Kucinich, and Sharpton have been busting their asses on the campaign trail and get hardly any attention. In comes Wes Clark and he is the media's golden boy. That says something to me, and that something sure isn't positive!

[KittyWampus]

22. Clark Is The Media's Golden Boy? LOL

That must be why they trotted out Norman Schwartzkopf to mouth General Shelton's smear even though Norm's never met Clark.

That must be why the media has featured the Clark at GOP Dinner and not bothered to report on Dean's being Lionized at the CATO Institute.

That must be why after the 2nd to last debate Kristol said Dean won even though Kerry landed a serious body blow by saying "we elect a president and not a staff".

That must be why someone started a thread about Dean's Teflon being like Junior's- only the people who agreed were too niave to realise that Dean's "Teflon" stems from media compliance.

[AntiLempa]

23. . . .

He's getting attention, isn't he? Clark has been getting a lot more attention that other candidates. There have been very many positive pieces on him. Can you deny that?

So they reported that he was at a GOP dinner, is it true? Call Hannity and O'Reilly If you are pissed that Fox didn't report that Cato likes Dean. I'm sure they would like to smear Dean.

What's your take on youth not supporting Dean in the Zogby poll?

[OKNancy]

28. Did anyone hear Joe Klien on CNN criticize Clark for

his black turtleneck! I couldn't believe it. It sounded so like "earthtones"

And not only that I heard sooooo many people say he looked nice, handsome and relaxed, and that it was a nice change.

Oh well?

[Skwmom]

26. I think you need to reconsider that. Wes is far from the Media's golden

boy. They have attacked him from day one.

[AntiLempa]

29. and why do you think Dean isn't popular amongst the youth?

[mot78]

14. Zogby polls have no credibility

the seem to go against the trends of other polls.

[agingdem]

18. Because...

he's strident and inflexible and self-righteous. In other words, he's mommy and daddy telling them to clean their plate or there will be hell to pay.

[leesa]

20. Because reality to them is an action movie or a video game?

The younger folk here should correct me if wrong, but they are enveloped in a very right wing controlled world, probably including the RW chrisitan fundie church their parents go to. I would imaging those not able to think outside the box would not be able to imagine any other world.

[AntiLempa]

21. Dem strategy

The Dems need to develop a strategy to gain the youth vote. The Republican Party has been very successful because they support the Christian Right. On the other hand, the Democrats ignore what they label the extreme element of the party. The extreme element are those that protest NAFTA, the WTO, Plan Colombia, Corporate Governance, the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation, and other radical things.

There are some folks on DU that are very negative towards the younger generation. We should look at this and learn.

[RapidCreek]

27. Because there isn't a draft.

RC

[Bertrand]

30. Could you elaborate on this?

How would a draft shift the youth vote away from Sharpton and Clark to Dean?

[ErasureAcer]

31. Dean flip flops

Young people, like myself(21), want honest politicians like Dennis Kucinich.