How a pro-same sex marriage ruling in MA could hurt Bush.

[David__77]

It is widely expected that the Massachusettes high court will soon rule that marriage licenses must be issued to same sex couples wishing to marry. Some conservative Republicans are almost hopeful for this scenario, believing that the focus on the issue will help Bush, as a majority of voters nationally are opposed to recognizing same sex marriages.

However, the administration is clearly reluctant to have any sustained focus on a domestic issue. As with Bush I, junior is a "foreign affairs" president. His advisors know that preventing a focus on Bush's anti-abortion rights, anti-public education and anti-gay views is important in order to win "swing voters." A focus on gay issues could district from the Bush message for 2004.

While the Democratic candidate likely will oppose same sex marriage, at the same time this candidate will also oppose a Constitutional amendment banning states from recognizing such marriages. Bush will be faced with a horrible quandry: either support a Constitutional amendment, and make this a major issue in 2004, and be required to talk about homosexuality in general, and waffle and completely alienate the religious right. This could alternately either cost him the fervent support of many conservatives or on the other hand create a strong media focus on Bush the right-winger, versus Bush the pseudo-Democrat with his Medicare expansion and other fuzzy issues, which is how he plans to campaign.