Election 2004: Why Dean Can Win

[dkf]

http://www.moore-info.com/Poll_Updates/2004%20Election%20%20Why%20Dean%20can%20win%20Sept%2003.htm

TO: Moore Information Clients & Friends

FROM: Hans Kaiser & Bob Moore

RE: Election 2004: Why Dean Can Win, September 2003

A recent article by David Brooks left readers with the distinct impression that Republican pollsters are all of the opinion that Howard Dean cannot possibly beat George Bush. We regret that he didn’t check with us first, as it is our belief that Dean has the potential to be a formidable candidate who could give the President a very difficult race.

The conventional wisdom that has some Republicans giddy about a potential Dean candidacy is not only misguided, it is counterproductive. Writing off a candidate like Dean by selectively sorting statistical gobble-de-gook and mixing it into a broth of “empirical” sociological evidence ignores the political realities of our time.

Howard Dean can win because he believes in what he is saying, because he can semi-legitimately spin his record as Governor into one of fiscal conservatism, and because he comes across as if he actually cares about people. We don’t know what the issues will be 14 months from now. Perhaps the economy will be rolling and the President will be soaring. If that’s the case, no one can beat him.

But there is the potential for the economy to remain sluggish and stagnant and conditions in the Middle East are impossible to predict. Should these situations remain status quo or worsen, America will be looking for someone new, someone fresh, someone who can shake America out of the doldrums and reinvigorate the body politic. Dean would provide solutions and excitement where the other Democrats, while perhaps polished and attractive, are not as convincing because they don’t have the perceived conviction of a Howard Dean.

Howard Dean has many qualities that make him a strong candidate, but the best way to judge his ability to win is simply to do the math. Below is a list of states we believe Howard Dean could win. We have broken them down into three columns. The first column is basically the Democrat base. The second column consists of Democrat leaners/swing states. The third column is Republican leaning states where Democrats have won in the recent past and could do so again.

--more

[Dagaz]

1. Which states that are Bush states will Dean be strong in

The red and blue are backwards but this is a non partisan look at things. Put together a scenario where Dean wins the election.


http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html#map

[dkf]

2. Table from article

Democrat Base
California 55
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
Wash, D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11

Electoral votes 183

Democrat leaning/
swing states
Iowa 7
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10

Electoral votes 87

Total 270

Republican leaning
Florida 27
Missouri 11
New Hampshire 4
Ohio 20

Electoral votes 62

Total 332

As you see, Dean can win even without Florida. Furthermore, of the 23 states that make up these 270 electoral votes, Bush only won two in 2002, squeaking by in Nevada but only getting 49.5% of the total vote, and winning West Virginia with 51.9%. With no significant opposition to Harry Reid in the Senate race and the nuclear repository issue alive and kicking, Nevada is going to be tough for the President. And West Virginia is a very Democrat state, where Dean’s willingness to work with the NRA on gun owners’ rights will go a long way toward deflecting the “liberal” charge.

...So Bush starts with 206 and Dean starts with 183. Judge for yourself whether or not you think Dean could be formidable in the states above. Because as Al Gore learned in 2000, the popular vote doesn’t elect the President. The Electoral College does, and when you do the math, a Dean candidacy is a lot more realistic than people think.

The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but he will not appear threatening to folks in the middle. More than any other candidate in the field, he will be able to present himself as one who cares about people (doctor), who balances budgets (governor), and who appears well grounded while looking presidential. To be sure, he doesn’t look that way to the GOP base, but that has no bearing on the election, because they will never vote for him anyway. He can appeal to the middle and Republicans can ignore his candidacy at our peril. We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover.

[readmylips]

3. Arizona Swing State...

Prez Clinton took Arizona twice. Howard Dean has a huge organization in AZ. Besides, we have a new democrat Governor, Miss Napolitano.

[tsipple]

4. Other Winnable States

That list excludes New Hampshire (certainly winnable), Arkansas (VP slot?), and Lousiana (VP slot?). Those states are in play, too.

[REP]

5. I Think Missouri Can Go Blue

I have to defend my home state! Remember, they did elect Mel Carnahan, even though he was dead at the time (even dead he is more charismatic than Asscroft).

Missouri is getting pissed off. I don't think Bush can win them without a lot of work, and even then, maybe not.

[jeter]

6. First of all, this analysis is bullshit

Very overly optimistic for Bush.

There is no way PA is Republican. Bush's popularity it plummeting there.

Nevada, New Mexico (which went Dem in last three elections), West Virginia also can hardly be called "definitely Bush."

Other possibilities include:

Arizona, Colorado, Arkansas and Louisiana (if Clark has place on ticket), and Florida.

Ohio and Missouri were also put under the "definitely Bush" column. Which is optimistic at best.

My numbers then: (Dems do better than GOP)

GOP (definite/leading - 178)
Dem (definite/leading - 212) - I took away 5 for NH.
Either way - 148

Democrats can win as much as 360 to 178
Or lose as badly as 326 to 212

The average is Democrats winning 286 to 252.

P.S. That President elect site had Bush winning the 2000 race substantially.

[jumptheshadow]

7. The math in the swing states

These states are leaning Republican in this poll:

Republican leaning
Florida 27
Missouri 11
New Hampshire 4
Ohio 20

If Wesley Clark is our nominee then we pick up all the Dean states AND we take Florida and Missouri. Clark is a much stronger candidate, I believe.

Florida = Take the Democratic base and add a larger portion of the military/military family vote. Clark also does well in the over-65 retiree category.

Missouri = This is an Arkansas border state with a large, no nonsense German-American population that will most likely be the swing vote here. They will relate to Clark's pragmatism, I suspect, and will judge him to be the candidate best qualified to clean up Bush's mess.

On edit: Any campaign that wants to win should plan on winning in Florida.