Disregard the polls. ABB will win big. Here's a few reasons why.

[TruthIsAll]

The polls are a snapshot, generally weighted to teflonize Bush. But the trend for * is DOWN. A year from now, if his (bogus) ratings are over 47%, Diebold will just make up the difference.


- In the last three presidential elections, disregarding third parties, the Dems got 13.5 million more votes than the Repubs (127mm-113mm) or 52.6% of the total Dem/Rep votes.

- in 2000, Gore won officially by 540,000 votes. He had 51mm total.
- Nader received 2.7%, almost 3 mm votes. We can assume that 2 mm would have gone to Gore, for a net increase of 1 mm.
- In Florida, at least 55,000 blacks were disenfranchised by Harris and Jeb. Bush.
- There were 110,000 double/tripled punched votes, of which Gore was on 75,000 ballots. Give Gore a net gain of 30,000.
-There were 60,000 votes lost due to hanging chads. Give Gore a net gain of 10,000.
- There were illegal, late absentee votes counted for Bush -perhaps 10,000.

Just counting Florida votes stolen from Gore and votes lost to Nader, Gore's winning overall margin should have been at least 1.65 mm.

In addition, there were at least 5 mm invalidated votes in the other states. How many to Gore? You can be sure a large majority of them, since most of them were in poor, urban areas.

Now, in 2004, we have several factors to consider.
1) ABB: Dems will be greatly energized to payback for the 2000 coup.
2) True Conservative Republicans are switching to the Dems. Assuming that 2% (1 of 50) do, that's 1 mm votes.
3) Muslims who voted for Bush will vote for ABB. Assume 1 mm.
4) Independents, the biggest block of all, are trending away from Bush. Assuming 33mm Indies vote, 20mm for ABB (60%), a net of 7mm .

Lets total it up.

Gore's margin: 540,000 votes
Add Florida votes stolen: 100,000
Add Nader votes net to ABB: 1 mm
Add: Repubs for ABB: 1 mm
Add: Muslims for ABB: 1 mm
Add: Independents for ABB: 7 mm

Total net to ABB:10.6 mm

Assume: 110 mm votes
ABB: 62 mm (56%, a 3% increase over the 3-election Dem average)
Bush:48 mm (2 mm net decline in votes)

[LittleApple81]

1. ABB has my vote! Let us select ABB as our candidate!

In all seriousness, I as a person without a democratic primary in my state, have no say about who is the Democratic candidate.
I only hope it is not Liebermann, that would be hard to swallow for me.

[TruthIsAll]

4. Imagine what will happen if ABB turns out to be charismatic...

and who connects with the people through eloquence, common sense and the TRUTH...

B
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S
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I
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T
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.....

[meti57b]

2. I like your numbers!

[TruthIsAll]

3. As of today Bush loses by 50-44 (Newsweek)..and that's inflated for Bush.

We can assume the real numbers are more like 52-42, in agreement with my numbers above (56-44)
...........................................................

50 percent of US voters want Bush out: poll
Sat Nov 8, 4:34 PM ET Add U.S. National - AFP to My Yahoo!

NEW YORK (AFP) - Fifty percent of registered US voters do not want President George W. Bush (news - web sites) re-elected to a second term, and 44 percent do, according to a Newsweek poll.

A month ago, the poll showed those for and against another Bush term split evenly

[rasputin1952]

5. While i like your #'s...

it still comes down to the Grassroots reality of getting the vote out.

As long as this country remains in the less than 50% voter turnout, we are truly in a position to mock democracy's core value, the peoples participation in representative gov't.

It is my belief, that the more people that vote, the quicker bush will be gone. All of the predictions in the world, will not change what Diebold and the GOP are planning. There needs to be a paper trail, and it needs to be in force by the next election. We need to have exit polling, and we need to be prepared to challenge anything the GOP comes up with that is even slightly reeking of illegal/unfair.

When I worked the polls in AZ, if someone came in, and used a camera in the polling place to record voters, they would have been arrested without much ado. In fact, if the police didn't show up quickly enough, I would have been fearful for the cameramans safety!

Get out the vote....that is the key to undisputed victory in '04.

:kick: