Lieberman leading in Ohio

[eablair3]

okay, ... I just saw a poll on CNN a minute or two ago, and the results had Joe LIeberman leading in OHIO.

How is Lieberman leading in Ohio?

The poll results were:

Lieberman 18%
Gepahrdt 14%
Kucinich 12%
Dean 9%
Kerry 9%
Sharpton 6%
Clark 6%
Braun 4%
Edwards 2%

any interpretations from people in Ohio? Lieberman?

[corarose]

1. Someone is messing with the polls

They want Lieberman as a front runner because they know he will lose.

[blm]

2. It's still in the name recognition phase.

Although Ohio does have a very strong fundamentalist population.

[CMT]

3. not surprising

Ohio is a late primary and people have not been paying attention. Lieberman as the 2000 VP candidate has name recognition. This has been the case in a number of states and as people find out more about the other candidates it seems that Lieberman falls. Besides his lead is not that overwhelming.

[VolcanoJen]

8. Ohio's primary is on March 2!

I firmly believe every state (but especially the larger ones, bolded) holding primaries that day will be in play and important; in fact, this is March 2 might be the day the race is decided:

Minnesota (18)
California (54)
Connecticut
Georgia (13)
Hawaii (4)
Maryland (12)
Massachusetts (12)
Missouri (11)
New York (33)
Ohio (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Texas (32)
Vermont (3)

As far as Ohio is concerned, nothing really ramped-up here yet, but the campaigns are starting to call and organize. If the past is a good indication, look for a big push in these states right after the big primaries in the first weeks of February (Arizona, Missouri, Michigan).

[ShaneGR]

10. Yeah, here in Ohio we'll get a full dose of Democrat from Feb-Nov

They are just focused on the early primaries right now.

[CMT]

11. the candidates haven't really been paying attention to the state

as of yet, they will and I still think Lieberman's lead will not last.
but you are correct Ohio will have a crucial primary and role in the fall campaign.

[bif]

4. Say it ain't so, Joe!

n/t

[La_Serpiente]

5. Is this Gallup?

Their polls have been seeming a little weird lately.

[Ninga]

6. Who conducted the poll??? And

when was it taken? From my limited prospective, Liberman leading in Ohio is a fluke. I would have thought maybe Kerry or Gephardt. I am a Dean supporter and know that state wide that nearly 10,000 people have attended Dean Meetups, that was the latest news we received last week.

In NE Ohio, Liberman has not made the major papers very much. Mostly Kerry, Gephardt and Dean news. In Sunday's Cleveland Plain Dealer editoral page, a very strong column in support of Dean was written.

Go figure, Liberman?

[eablair3]

7. not sure -- it was on CNN, fwiw

I'm not sure who did the poll. I just saw the graphic when they put it up on CNN's Inside Politics ... I paused my tivo and posted the results. I'll have to look it up. I assume CNN on line should have it.

[HFishbine]

15. I think your puzzlement

can be explained by the fact that the poll seems to indicate that people in Ohio really aren't paying attention yet. Among those who identified themselves as liberal, the top choice was Lieberman. Among those who identified themselves as conservatives, it was Kucinich. The poll also has a MoE of 5.4%

See post #14.

[newyawker99]

16. Hi Ninga!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[ShaneGR]

9. No one is doing anything in Ohio

It sucks, there are small organizations set-up by supporters, but no one is running commercials, or doing any serious campaigning.

[Kolesar]

12. This surprises me. Joe Lie's name recognition must be still carrying him

The whole list looks like name recognition. Gephardt and Kucinich are well-known names among Democrats. Dean seems to be climbing ever so slowly on the backs of his volunteers.

[Zynx]

13. Ohioans are not paying attention en masse.

Therefore, Joe is doing well.

[HFishbine]

14. Here it is

Accurate as posted above, except Edwards is at 1%.

In a sign that Ohioans are not yet paying attention, 24% of those who identify themselves as liberals chose Lieberman, followed by Dean, then Kerry.

Among those who identify themselves as conservative, the top choice was Kucinich.

With that glaring observation in mind, here are some other factoids:
------------------

Name recognition: Lieberman 86%, Gephardt 73%, Sharpton 70%, Kucinich 62% (Go figure), Kerry 61%, Dean 58%, Clark 51%, Edwards 44%, MB 42%

Net favorability (favorable opinion minus unfavorable):

Lieberman: +19
Gephardt: +14
Kerry: +10
Dean +8
DK: +3
MB: +3
AS: -21

Something that always puzzles me whenever I see it, all the candidates
except for Wes Clark had lower name recognition in this poll than in September.

All candidates had a decline in favorability since September except for Clark and Edwards.

Margin of error +/- 5.4%

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/PDF/OhioPoll/op111003.pdf

[matcom]

17. MSNBC REPORTING: Lieberman at 5% in Ohio

Gephardt LEADING with 27%
Dean #2 at 20%

shows you what is "in" polls these days :eyes:

[matcom]

18. kick

cause i think this is really important.

exactly WHAT does MSNBC's "poll" tell us because it is so vastly different from the "poll" above

[Ksec]

19. Ohio here

and theres no accounting for good taste.

ID RATHER STEP ON A LAND MINE.