Who would be helped/hurt if we cut the presidential pack down by a third?

[TheReligiousLeft]

Say these are the candidates left (per Newsweek they are the top 6 right now).

Howard Dean 16
Wesley Clark 15
Dick Gephardt 9
Joe Lieberman 8
John Kerry 7
Carol Moseley Braun 7

How would things fall out?

I think Wesley Clark and maybe Lieberman would pick up Edward's voters, CMB would get Sharptons and Dick and Howard would split Dennis'. Does that sound right to you? I think, if I'm right, that would makes
That would mean the new order would be...
Wesley Clark 20
Howard Dean 17
Carol Moseley Braun 11
Dick Gephardt 10
Joe Lieberman 10
John Kerry 7
Looks like Kerry and Gephardt would be pushed out by Ms. Braun. She'd be 3rd!
I happen to be backing Kerry and Dean, so maybe I'm backing the wrong horse.

[metisnation]

1. no way

keep the pack wide so we are more elusive! Make the Gop move centers through our candidates. Fence sitters will want them to make up their mind and potentially vote them out.

[IndianaGreen]

2. Let the voters decide, not the party hacks!

Just who in the hell you had in mind to decide which candidates will get invited to the next debate? Terry McCauliff? That loser! He should be the one that gets canned.

[TheReligiousLeft]

6. I'm not saying keep them out of the debates

I'm just saying, if the bottom 3rd quit who would benefit?

[liberalcapitalist]

3. CMB over Kucinich?

This shows that polls are bogus. There are 17,000 people in the Kucinich Meetup campaign. I doubt there are 17,000 people outside of active participants in the other eight campaigns/ freepers who could even identify the gorgeous CMB on sight.

[rucky]

4. That only tells me

who has internet access, transportation, & day jobs.

[rucky]

5. Kucinich to Geppy? How do you figgure?

IWR? 87B? No way.

I think Clark & Dean stand to benefit when the bottom of the pack drop out.

[TheReligiousLeft]

8. Labor...

For some reason I thought Kucinich had some labor ties, and I thought they held similar views on free trade... I'm not sure what made me think that. What is 87B?
Danke

[rucky]

11. Kuch is a union man

but the union endorsements seem to be going Dean's way.

87B = Gep voted for the 87 Billion dollars. Kucinich has consistently voted against Gep on war-related issues. That's a dealbreaker for many Kucinich supporters - including this one.

[liberalcapitalist]

12. Dean will benefit if/when Kucinich drops out

Despite the fact that the candidates are quite different, most Kucinich supporters I've met with in real life and talked to online have Dean as their backup "practical" candidate.

[ThirdWheelLegend]

14. Not so sure...

Dean has been 'slighting' Kucinich lately. Well we'll just call it lying.

Dismissing him as an 'opponent' in a TV ad was not a good idea. Dean didn't apologize or pull the ad. Doesn't really warm the hearts of Kucinich supporters. Plus the recent flipflop on CFR. That is also an issue with Kucinich supporters.

Right now Kerry, Sharpton, Braun, Edwards and maybe Gephardt and Clark would have to drop before my vote goes to Dean. So if all of them drop before Ohio, then maybe I vote for Dean.

:shrug:

TWL

p.s. Kerry is probably where my vote would go first if Dennis K drops.

[Lady President]

7. Nah!

I have a hard time believing the original numbers. Did the entire Moseley-Braun family randomly get polled?

How do you figure that Kerry wouldn't get any of the other voters? The Kucinich voters would go all over the place~ environmentalist would go to Kerry, Green (or even Lieberman,) the anti-war vote to Dean or Clark, and the true liberals to Kerry. Edwards and Kerry are supposedly friends, so Kerry could get some of his votes. I think with Edwards there would be a lot of behind closed doors VP or AG discussions before he would throw his support anywhere. Kerry and Sharpton also get along very well, so who knows. Gephardt would probably still get most of the union endorsements the bottom three had.

You can keep betting on your horses. :)

[TheReligiousLeft]

9. Woohhhoooooo! Go Kerry, Go Dean!

And from out of no where Kerry the valiant Thoroughbred surges forward, and not far behind him Dean the darkhorse blasts past Gephardt of the Glue factory and Lieberman quarterhorse!

[corarose]

10. Leiberman needs to go

He is not going to win so he should step aside.

[jsw_81]

13. Kucinich, Sharpton and Moseley Braun should NOT be included in the debates

They are not serious candidates, and all they do is take time away from those who are serious candidates (including Lieberman, even though I would never support him). A nut like Sharpton belongs outside the debate hall with the Greenies and the LaRouche people. Get him off the stage already!

[liberalcapitalist]

15. join the GOP

Yeah, let's get the Blacks, women, and non-corporate whores off the stage.

Shame on you!

Kucinich is a VERY serious candidate, too.

[jsw_81]

19. Kucinich is a serious candidate?

That's the funniest thing I've heard all week. My cat has a better chance of winning next year's election than Dennis Kucinich. And don't even try to imply that I'm racist for wanting Sharpton and Moseley Braun off the stage. Both of them are as corrupt as hell (especially Moseley Braun), and they do not deserve to share the stage with serious candidates.

[elperromagico]

20. Just because Kucinich won't win

doesn't mean he doesn't have the "fire in the belly." I believe the man wants to be President, and feels that he could do much good in the office. I'm inclined to agree with him, though I am not a hardcore Kucinich supporter.

Let the man speak.

[gottaB]

25. No need to imply that you're racist--

Or corrupt as hell (especially).

Whatever measure you choose, if you apply it fairly and equally, you can't exclude Braun, Kucinich and Sharpton as a group, or Braun and Sharpton as a pair. Name one criterion for exclusion. Corruption is too vague. It could be seen as a code word. Think about it--not just whether it's a code word, but why it could be seen that way. Once you clearly define what you mean by corruption, accept standards of evidence and proof, then how are you going to apply that criterion in a way that takes out only Braun and Sharpton? It can't be done.

[ThirdWheelLegend]

17. yeah enough with addressing the issues!

let's get to good old fashioned politicizing! Less substance more media!

Wooooohooo

:eyes:

[elperromagico]

18. Let them drop out naturally.

It comes down to money; I don't honestly believe CMB will be in the primaries after New Hampshire/Iowa (she may be gone before then). Sharpton and Kucinich will probably be forced to withdraw as well. Lieberman may place 3rd in New Hampshire, so he'll be around a bit longer, but then he'll do poorly in the South and have to drop out as well. Edwards will probably lose to Clark in the South; he'll be gone too. If Gephardt doesn't score in Iowa, he's in trouble as well.

So who's left? Dean, Clark, and Kerry. Let the primary process narrow out the candidate field; until then, let these candidates who aren't "serious" remain. They express views which many Democrats (and many Americans) haven't heard in a long time.

[TexasMexican]

16. yes.

Yes it would help to cut down the pack a bit so more time can be spent on the more viable candidates.

[JackRiddler]

21. Hmm, to extend your eminent logic ...

My scientific, nearly infallible polls (MOE 0.01 percent), which have allowed me to sample the entire U.S. population from the comfort of my fortress, show that Howard (not Dean, but THE DUCK) is taking 22 percent of the vote across all demographics.

So I did a study of what would happen if all of the Democratic candidates, including LaRouche, and if Bush himself were all to suddenly drop out of the race, leaving the indisputably viable Howard as the only candidate. These were the results:

Howard the Duck 37.9%
Nonvoters 51.1%
Voting machine error 11%

This means Howard the Duck would sweep 50 states plus DC and take 100 percent of the electoral college - an unprecedented landslide. Unquestionably the renewal of our country would follow.

Why are these second-tier candidates preventing that? Selfish bastards! I've been backing the wrong horse! I should have gone with the Duck!

[Adjoran]

22. Absolutely

This isn't about including all views. All views are welcomed, and have been expressed. The voters are responding to a few campaigns, while others are spinning their wheels.

Nine people on the stage isn't a debate. It's a joint press conference. It's who has the best one-liners and catch-phrases. We are trying to pick a leader of the free world here. With time being so divided, we don't get to hear enough of the candidates who might actually win the nomination.

I think those without a legitimate chance to win would be doing the party a service by withdrawing from the debates. I would not force anyone out, but I think it would be a sacrifice on behalf of a victory next year, and one that should be made by those who place a Democratic win over their personal ambitions.

[JackRiddler]

24. "The voters"?

They have not responded to any campaign.

Because there has not yet been a vote.

You are all tyrannized by polls.

[tedoll78]

23. I'm betting that..

Gep will drop whether he wins Iowa or not.. since he won't have any money after Iowa.
Kerry will drop after New Hampshire.
Edwards will drop after losing to Clark in South Carolina; Clark's making this state one of his top priorities.
With those three out (and after Lieberman finally gets the message that he won't win), we have a Dean-versus-Clark race.

I'm betting that the South swings heavily in favor of Clark after those three drop-out. The South holds over 1200 delegates, while 2170 are needed for the nomination.

I also bet that Clark seeks more delegates in the Rocky Mountain region, where a recent poll (was it Zogby?) had him doing better than anyone else there.

There'll be a big fight over California's 440 delegates.
And then the Great Lake states will settle things.

It partially depends on when the other candidates drop-out, and where their supporters go. If Edwards is still residually pissed at Dean over the flag, he could urge his supporters to go Clark. If Kerry is still pissed at Dean, he could also urge his supporters to go towards Clark.

Also playing a role will be the 4th quarter numbers. If Clark comes in second, well ahead of all other candidates other than Dean, the media could deem him the anti-Dean, to play-up that angle. It'd make for good political drama.

It'll be close, either way it turns-out.
And either way, we have a great man as our nominee.
Perhaps for party unity, they can share the ticket? Who knows?