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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-03 11:30 AM
Original message
Skeptics on the economy
Good article on Yahoo citing some corporate economists who are skeptical of the "Bush Boom"...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=2&u=/afp/20031111/bs_afp/us_economy_outlook_031111074017
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Richardo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-03 11:32 AM
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1. Thanks, NewJeff! I'm one of the skeptical as well
good job!
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-03 01:01 PM
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HFishbine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-03 01:06 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Reports?
I'd like to read those reports. Got a link?
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Richardo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-03 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. 6 of 6 reports. Which ones, and what are the sources?
+ One quarter does not a trend make.
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jab105 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-03 01:16 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. So much wrong, and with such a short post...tsk, tsk...
first, what reports? If you got them, link them...

Second, president Bush wasn't fully responsible for the decline, the economy is cyclical, the 90s was a great run-up combined with a technology boom...what Bush did wrong was to talk down the economy in order to get his first series of 2001 tax cuts through...that was stupid...

Third, in fairness, we must credit the FED, who had 11 rate cuts (which is nearly unheard of) for getting any movement back in the economy, combined with (again) the fact that the economy is cyclical...interest rates lower, increases the money supply, puts more money into circulation...helps the economy (think about Volcker and the upturn in 1983 for a good comparison which had nothing to do with Reaganomics)...

Foruth, for all the buck we put towards "so-called" supply side economicas...we must be very concerned with the long-term crisis that these tax cuts put America in...because of the deficits that they bring with them...

The Economist, which in general is pretty darn conservative had a great article last week about what was going on...you really should read it!!

http://www.economist.com/world/na/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2189237

America's fiscal position has deteriorated fast during George Bush's presidency. It will not be easy to reverse

LAST week's figures looked, at first, like vindication. The news that America's output grew at an extraordinary 7.2% annual rate between July and September, the fastest rate since 1984, was proof, said the White House, that the president's tax-cutting strategy was working. The economy was growing strongly, George Bush crowed, because “we left more money in the hands of the American people.”

Tax cuts are the central pillar of Mr Bush's economic strategy. He has chopped taxes in every year of his presidency, in all by as much as Ronald Reagan did in the early 1980s. His first tax package, signed into law in June 2001 and worth $1.35 trillion over ten years, was a campaign promise. It cut marginal income tax rates, gradually eliminated the estate tax and raised the child tax credit, ostensibly to make sure that the budget surplus was returned to Americans and not frittered away in Washington.

A year later, the emphasis was on stimulating the sluggish economy by giving firms tax incentives to invest. In May 2003 came another big tax plan, again sold as a stimulus, but designed mostly to shift the tax burden away from investment income by cutting taxes on dividends.

(much more if you click on the link)
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-03 01:54 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. The Economist
Is considered a "conservative" publication, if I remember correctly. Of course, conservative in Europe is moderate in the US, I think.
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Robin Hood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-03 01:24 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Hahahahah!! That's too funny.
They pick and choose the numbers to pump up themselves politically. And when the truth is found out, in typical Republican fashion they blame others for their failures(See Clintons penis, 911 etc..) What a bunch of dingle berry's.

Fortunately, all the bullshit that these morons have piled on the American people is leaving a bad taste in Americas mouth. The majority of Americans no longer want this liyng murderous thief to lead us into the gates of hell. They are desperately looking for anyone to lead them the other way.

Like father, like son. One term.
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ProfessorGAC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-11-03 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. I've Been Saying That on DU for a Year!
These people are bought and paid for economists and analysts who come up with the conclusions their bosses want to hear.

There is zero statistical evidence that the economy is truly improving in a sustainable way. As long as overall productivity is not improving, indexed to the unemployment rate, and as long as their is no statistically significant shift in quarterly smoothed consumer spending, there is no sustainable growth.

These folks either know this and are obfuscating, or are not really good analytical thinkers and don't really know how to frame the data to reveal true causation. Based upon my experiences, either is equally likely.

Eventually, the economy will improve, but it will be IN SPITE OF tax cuts and not because of them. And, any such improvement will be retarded by the competition for investment dollars with higher yielding gov't securities. The raising of yields to attract dollars is, also, an inevitable result of larger and larger deficits.

Until the deficits come under control, without affecting a drastic shift in total gov't spending, there will be no sustainable growth. The causative models of the macroeconomy just show no indication that such a result is probable.
The Professor
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