Billmon's diagnosis: the Kerry campaign is in critical condition

[pruner]

Terminal Case

…

It's not immediately obvious what Ms. Cahill brings to Sen. Kerry's table -- other than the fact that she's not Jim Jordan. Her liberal credentials certainly appear to be in order, but the fact that the junior Senator from Massachusetts is hiring the senior Senator's chief of staff to take over his floundering presidential campaign has a definite hospital smell to it:

"Paging Dr. Kennedy, Dr. Kennedy to the ER. Code Blue."

The thing is, all the liberal blood transfusions in the world can't change the fact that the rise of Howard Dean has essentially rendered Kerry superfluous. Dean has stolen Kerry's oxygen tent (to extend my increasingly forced medical metaphor.) He's sewn up the upscale white liberal vote and nailed down the New Hampshire primary -- two areas where Kerry was supposed to enjoy a natural competitive advantage. He's annihilated Kerry's original fundraising advantage. He's even managed to survive his own mouth, which has tendency to say things that would destroy lesser candidates. At least among his core constituencies -- the very same constituencies Kerry desperately needs to reach to stay viable -- Dean now appears to wear teflon armor.

All Kerry has left are his war hero resume and his wife's fortune. The former has little appeal to the upscale left, which has returned to its McGovernite roots. And Gen. Clark is a much more plausible choice for hawkish moderates -- as well as for pragmatic liberals who think only a candidate with strong national security credentials can beat Bush.

That leaves the fortune, which Kerry is considering tapping if he follows Dean's lead and exits the public campaign financing system. But for Dean, leaving the system was a show of political strength -- in that it will enable him to exploit more fully the fantastic grassroots fundraising system he's created. But for Kerry, it would be a sign of weakness, an admission that only his vast personal wealth makes it possible for him to remain competitive with Dean's money machine.

You have to wonder if the result wouldn't be a drastic tapering off in Kerry's outside fundraising (why throw good money after bad if the candidate is going to do it for you?) forcing him to rely more and more heavily on his own money. Not the best way to demonstrate your political vitality.

It's hard to see a way out for Kerry -- barring a sudden and complete implosion in the Dean campaign, which is going to take something much worse than a Confederate flag bumper sticker. If, like most Democratic nominations, this one boils down to a race between a "liberal" and a "moderate," then Kerry has already lost the primary within the primary. Now it's Dean versus the anti-Dean. And Kerry isn't even in the running for the latter position.

Maybe it's time for someone -- the family physician, or a close relative -- to take Sen. Kerry aside and give him the bad news. "John, you may want to sit down. The test results have come back, and, well, there's something I have to tell you..."

http://www.billmon.org/

[RichM]

1. Same message from Boston Globe columnist Joan Vennochi -

http://www.commondreams.org/views03/1111-07.htm

[papau]

7. Joan Vennochi - and the Globe - have dumped on Kerry 24/7/365

Why would one not take what they say with a little salt?

Joan in a note to me said that she did not feel that she or the Globe were dumping on John.

So I would conclude that I, at least, see the world a bit differently than our friends at the Globe.

[Terwilliger]

2. you're pro-Dean

why are you posting this shit? There are already other threads about it in GD.

[pruner]

4. I'm posting it cause I think it's a very good appraisal of the situation

if you don't like it, TFB.

[Terwilliger]

6. you're posting it because you want to knock other candidates

that's why you post most everything you post

[Padraig18]

3. On life support.

May recover, may succumb... *flips coin*

[DrFunkenstein]

5. Kerry's Race Is Over - Billmon.org Says So

I quit.

[caledesi]

8. Infortunately, it appears that Kerry is done. n/t

[HazMat]

9. If Gep and Kerry have to go down,

they need to take Dean down with them and clear the way for Clark in the south.

People like Gep and Kerry are loyal Democrats (unlike Dean) who will take one for the team if neccessary.

The media clearly hates Anybody But Dean, which is why the ABD coalition needs to think about the overall mission --- knocking out Dean and getting an electable candidate to the nomination -- even if that means sacraficing oneself.

[Padraig18]

10. Why is Dean not a 'loyal Democrat'?

Care to back that bald piece of slander up with some facts?

[blm]

12. Look at who he aligned with the most as governor of Vermont.

He was the highest rated Democrat by the CATO Institute while governor. NO loyal Democrat could possibly get a high rating from CATO.

I'm sure you saw the articles posted describing Dean's treatment of the progressive Democrats in Vermont.

[HazMat]

18. Also, the fact that he's a selfish little turd

"I'll take the fight to the convention floor", he said on Larry King, in response to the McCauliffe who wanted the candidates to drop out as soon as someone won the primaries so the candidate would have more time to campaign against Bush. Dean said no.

"These kids are 'non-transferable'".. he said in another interview, suggesting that he would not support the Dem nominee if he didn't win. He backtracked under pressure, and now that the media has made him the frontrunner it's much easier to say "I'll support the nominee" because he thinks it'll be him.

But what it really comes down to is that if Dean really wanted Democrats to defeat Bush he wouldn't even be running.

Dean isn't in this for the Democratic Party -- he's in it for himself.

Likewise, the Democratic Party won't be there for Dean if he gets the nomination. They will not want to take a fall for someone like Dean who isn't loyal to the party and who has no chance of beating Bush.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

11. Ouch

Sounds like a sure way to lose the election. Gang up on Dean, turn off all his supporters and all the great energy he has built up.

By the way, Dean has come out strongly ABB, and has pledged to support the nominee no matter who it is. But somehow I doubt he will feel that generous if the movement is ABD. That's just juvenile sour grapes, and will surely doom us in 2004.

Fortunately, I don't think the Dem party is that stupid, and I think if Dean's lead continues to build and solidify -- beginning with the key endorsements of SEIU and AFSCME tomorrow -- they may come along. Would sure hate to see egos give us another 4 years of Bush.

[HazMat]

14. Dean's going to lose anyway

If Dean gets the nomination it's all over. Bush can start popping the champagne from then. Nothing the other candidates or their supporters can do at that point to prevent disaster. They would be forced to save themselves and abandon ship. I can't see loyal Democratic officials sacraficing themselves for someone like Dean who is running against them as much as he is Bush. I see this as being similar to 1972 where the party basically bailed on McGovern because they knew he was going down.

[quaker bill]

17. Like Dean needs the support

of the party leaders that brought us 2000 and 2002. This is no longer 1972. Mayor Daley no longer has dead people voting democratic several times each election. The democratic party of 1972 died a brutal death in 1980.

The kingmakers have shown increasing ineptitude at crowning kings of late.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

13. You're boy has been trying that route

and failing miserably. Funny that you still subscribe to a dying notion. Hopefully Kerry's new campaign staff will take a new approach, since months of the ABD strategy obviously has done no good to anyone but Dean.

[HFishbine]

16. Taking one for the team

"People like Gep and Kerry are loyal Democrats (unlike Dean) who will take one for the team if neccessary."

Yeah, they really showed that on their war votes. Don't think for a minute that these two don't give priority to their policial aspirations.

[karlschneider]

15. I like Kerry a lot, but he has the same liability that Al Gore did in 2000

He just does not come across on TV as the sort of aw-shucks, easy going kind of person that appeals to the unfortunately idiotic electorate. Bush has a persona (which WE all know is phony) that resonates with many uneducated and uniformed voters.

Try this little experiment: ask 10 of your acquaintences to name the following: Sec'y of State, Nat'l Security Advisor, their own 2 senators, their own congressperson, Speaker of the U.S. House, and the proconsul of the CPA in Iraq.

You might (or might not) be amazed at the answers you get.

Presidential campaigns have become a virtual copy of the idiotic 'reality TV' programs that capture the attention of the body unpolitic.

I remain unconvinced that any of the current Dem candidates can overcome the megabucks amassed by Shrub and his gang of thugs. I pray I am wrong.