Have You Noticed a Shortage of Goods on Store Shelves This Season?

[Starpass]

Would like to talk to people who are into "economics". Something I've observed the last two weeks; talked to friends who have observed the same thing; and today at the mall got into a conversation with a clerk who had come to the conclusion that had been running around in my head the past two weeks. (Was also good to hear that people are catching on to the manipulation and lies of this administration!).

I noted that there were plenty of customers but not the usual full stock of goods with the holiday season upon us. There are much fewer choices within stores and there are not great quantitites of the individual items. In addition, I've noticed that many goods in many stores are left-overs from last year (and some go back even further than that). Here in Maine it was shocking to see that this is even occuring in our retail biggie, L. L. Bean.

I made a remark to a clerk at the mall today about this. She said that stock was definitely poor; that they had a sale the other day which she said was not a sale (more like a jack up in price); and that they had a swarm of people fighting over the items. Then she looked at me and said: "This is probably the way they are going to claim a big, profitable season". I replied, "EXACTLY---first they lay off tons of people; then they invest little in merchandise while recycling old stuff from the warehouses; they stick a good price on it and let people fight over it; and then they declare a 'huge, great profit, bang-up season and proof that the economy is back at full steam' just in time for elections next year". Clerk replied that 'the republicans and the corporations are going to lie about the economy just like they lie about everything else'.

So anyway, wanted to ask if this is a way they can create "false economic numbers" so to speak and give the illusion of an economic pickup?? I wonder if the people will buy it??---this clerk saw right through it all; hopefully so will the rest of the people.

[The Backlash Cometh]

1. I'm a Republican's worst nightmare.

I hate to shop.

[Terran]

2. I'd call that a conspiracy

except that they all have an interest in doing exactly what you describe.

Me, I'm giving what little money I have to spend on Xmas to a homeless shelter this year. Most of my $$ is just going to get out to LA to see the family. I'm just not buying in this year.

[Starpass]

4. actually, our whole family is cutting way, way down this

year because we have weddings and babies and stuff coming up and all agreed to 'cool it'. I cannot believe that with the unemployment and fear of unemployment that people are going to rush out and shop until they drop. What's different in their lives from last year when they did not buy??? That's why I really do smell 'election time' manipulation coming to a store near you just in time for the corporations to make Bush look good.

[MUAD_DIB]

3. I read a post here about how a corporation

will jack up its positives when it knows that it is in trouble (i.e. ENRON), and that the Chimp admin is doing the same thing to the country right now.

The corporations and the Chimp can lie a much as they want, but we will know if/when the economy turns around by real measurable growth.

The few people that are giving the thumbs up on the economy are the same ones being paid to so on TV.

If it smells like bullshit then it's probably bullshit.

[ArkDem]

12. So when a corporation starts showing big profits

it is in trouble? How do you know when it really is doing well?

[rucky]

5. my wife works at Pier 1

They are packing their stores to the gills with holiday crap and everything else you can think of.

And they're putting it all on sale. There's 3 simultaneous sales going on at Pier1 right now. What does this say?

Some companies are trying to boost their Q4 volume & inventory numbers. This may come at the expense of margins, which they offset with smaller staff and bigger use of salaried "managers".

Maybe LL Bean is putting all their inventory & resources into their catalog & internet business to attract investors & cut operating costs? Or they could be having some cashflow problems.

But they may also be trying to up their margins thru supply-side manipulation (or they're a victim of it). Does LL Bean own their means of production, or do they outsource?
Creating false shortages & false demands is sort of a trend in the wholesale/manufacturing world right now, so naturally that trickles into the retail sector.

they're not doing it for the US economy, tho...they're doing it for their own stock value - otherwise they'd be beefing up their inventories.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

14. I was in Pier 1 last night, and there was tons of stuff on sale

I was surprised-candles on sale again (usually only 2x per year). And markdowns on dinnerware and tablecloths. People don't have a lot of expendable cash these days and are looking for bargains. Stores like Pier 1 are putting things on sale now to inflate their November sales figures.

Macy's and Filene's up here are doing the same thing. The one thing that is noticeable in these department stores is the lack of help. God forbid you try to find someone to wait on you at night. I think the premise is correct that they are utilizing salaried managers and part-time employees and understaffing. I will not be going near these places around the holidays. Thank god for shopping online.

[rucky]

16. If you want to help jobs & the economy...

write to Pier1/Macy's, etc. and tell 'em why you're not shopping there this season.

I try to support owner-operated stores. It's the best thing we can do for the economy. Mixed feelings about online shopping. It is convenient, and maybe it keeps some higher-paying jobs in the market, but it's bad news for us retail slaves - the net job loss is greater when online becomes the thing.

[kimchi]

6. Yes.

Even the toy section had a limited selection. My friends are getting liberal books and handcrafted jewelry. I bought my baby 2 toys and 1 book, and I've asked for small items for the kitchen (pizza cutter, burner covers, etc.)

I figure it is stuff I would buy anyway. I can't go so far as to give nothing, with my huge family, but I won't spend even a third what I did last year. And no junk or stocking stuffers. Except maybe for the kids, my loved ones understand that being together matters most.

The economy will get a small boost, because no one wants their children to be without presents during the holidays. I don't think it will be that much because people don't have money.

Also, please remember to donate a toy or food to others this holiday season. It is needed more than ever before.

[patdem]

7. I have not been to the mall since last Xmas...and I do not want to go this

season. I like what the other poster said...give what you would spend for friviolous gifts to homeless shelters...they are in greater need than a child for a new toy that is advertised time and again on TV. Give in the name of a child to teach giving rather than getting...same with a grandchild...never too early to teach the value of giving over getting.

[slappypan]

8. consumers took on a lot of debt in September

Consumer Debt Increases in September


It's a question of whether they can or will take on more debt for the holidays. Sounds like retailers are betting no:


Wal-Mart, Target Cool Holiday Sales Hopes

[WilliamPitt]

9. Interesting

Good to see you, Starpass. :hi:

[barbaraann]

10. They're still trying to sell Halloween stuff where I live.

The Bush administration has taken the fun out of a lot of things for us Washingtonians and there wasn't much Halloween spirit this year. Also, so many of us are jobless or underemployed that we don't have extra money for celebrating.

[Mari333]

11. We are having a No Present Xmas this year

My sons restaurant is barely hanging on, and I am trying to pay my mothers taxes and mine, she is bankrupt at 77 years old..so, no presents at all..period...and possibly no tree...we wont be buying anything..
I stopped all drinking (no I wasnt an alcoholic but it was expensive) and thats saving money..no more going out to eat, cut my health insurance down , and might end up having to sell my house to downsize. No, I wont be buying anything this year. The taxes are killing me. I eat small amounts during the day, and have high prescription prices to pay for my meds.
In fact, I might just skip the holidays as much as possible..this is a year of mourning, not of celebration. I wont celebrate anything again until that lying f*ckwit is out of office.

[sandnsea]

13. That's the plan this year

Heard it on one of the news shows last week or so. They want to sell everything they order so aren't over-stocking. It was a get your Christmas presents now sort of report and don't count on last minute markdowns. Yep, the economy is ROARING!!!!!!

[jumptheshadow]

15. Supply and demand

A relative who is a retail clerk pointed out to me during the last holiday season that her department store chain was way overstocked and was slashing prices lower than she had ever seen.

During the past year she says that store traffic has been very low, even during sale days. This has led to employee layoffs.

I noted the deep discounting at many NY stores last year. If you had cash, it was the time to buy.

I would suspect that the stores are compensating for last season's heavy price cutting by trimming their inventories.

Many, if not most of the big stores are publicly traded companies. If they don't adjust their inventories and sales plans to show a better bottom line to their shareholders then management heads are chopped.

The inventory readjustments aren't part of a Rovian plan; given the current unstable Bush economy store execs are probably trying to save their own hides.

[OldSoldier]

17. I'll confirm that from here...

I'm not a huge help here, though, because Home Depot really doesn't get into the Christmas thing like a lot of other stores do. We have decorations (and not a lot of those--our distribution center apparently doesn't want to get into the whole return thing) and some small appliances, we're getting some small tools like drill bit sets, we've got a new line of $99 benchtop tools that's really popular and should do well later this month and into next, and of course gift cards. Last year we had a lot more.

Home Depot has always been more like a cigar store as far as gift-giving goes: it's a good place to buy men's gifts but not so much women's (even though both stores have things for women--probably eight of Lladro's top ten dealers are tobacconists) and we do most of our gift-giving business around Christmas and Father's Day. Come to think of it, the cigar store doesn't seem to be doing a lot for Christmas this year either.

Target doesn't appear to be getting into the Christmas thing as heavily as usual either. Lots of small stuff, nothing really outrageous--Kitchenaid mixers aren't being pushed like they were, but $40 DVD players are getting real popular.

[adriennel]

18. inventory

If you're a retailer, excess inventory at the end of the fiscal year is a killer. I am wondering if low stock levels are in anticipation of a slow holiday season? Typically this time of year stores would be flooded with inventory.
My partner is a retail buyer, his numbers are not looking good, forced to keep inventory low, doesn't have a lot of hope for this holiday season. I don't think it's a good sign.

[ScreamingMeemie]

19. I heard on the radio just yesterday that stores in general are going

to be tighter on the merchandise throughout the holiday season and to shop early to get the best selection. Me? I think it's a ploy to get us all running out to the stores to buy! buy! buy! lest it's all gone if we wait to go.

[democratreformed]

20. What I don't understand about the economy

Why do people decide if it's better based on what they hear on television? I can see in my everyday life that it not better. I still see unemployed people and people struggling to make ends meet.

I just don't get that.

[paulk]

21. I don't know about the big corporate and mall stores

but I do have some insight into the "mom and pop" retail store end of things - (I own one). In 2001, after a year of recession, then 9/11, a lot of businesses did their wholesale x-mas buying late and didn't buy as much because business had been so lousy. And the x-mas season was pretty lousy, too.

The economy got better through the first 2/3rds of 2002, so it looked like a good x-mas, one that was going to make up for the previous year - so a lot of businesses overstocked - then got nailed with the worst x-mas in over 30 years.

Retail sales continued to suck pretty much into July, and really haven't reached levels that warrant going out on a limb for this x-mas. Hence, reduced inventories. After two bad years, it's better safe than sorry time.

I don't know if even big companies get that involved in doing things for political reasons - especially in retail. I can't see them propping up the economy to make Bush look good. That's my take on it, anyway.

[chiburb]

22. Just saw a bus go by that may be part of the answer...

It had a huge, bus-length ad for Gap. Showed sweaters, pants, etc. Underneath the picture was the line "there's more at Gap.com". So I'm thinking (having already read this thread) ah-ha! Keep inventories low at the brick and mortar stores, but offer TONS of stuff online. Perhaps the eventual goal is to lower overhead by steering people to the virtual stores.
Increase profits at the expense of jobs, but so what? Isn't THAT the American way now?

[adriennel]

23. increased online shopping....

we might need more UPS drivers : )