More great news on the economy...NOT

[jeter]

So much for the week long recovery. Three numbers came out today that added some serious doubt to any kind of recovery.

First, INFLATION. I had a feeling with 7.2% growth inflation would rise and did it ever. In October, Inflation rose at an annual rate of 9.6%. Those are 1970s-like numbers. That means in terms of real $$$, the economy actually CONTRACTED in the third quarter by 2.4% annual. Since GDP growth has to rise above inflation for there to be any actual growth. How do you deal with inflation? By raising interest rates. Say bye-bye to the recovery.

Second, PERSONAL BANKRUPCIES. Rose 7.8% from same time last year. The Personal Bankrupcy rate in this country is at its highest levels ever.

Third, RETAIL SALES. Declined by 0.3%. Economists were expecting no gain or a slight gain.

Personal spending is slowing down. Consumer debt is rising higher. Interest rates are about to climb. Get ready for a bumpy ride.

[Jacobin]

1. Well, yeah,......but

Foreclosures are at a record high....

[jeter]

2. expect that number to get worse

Expect the US dollar to tumble. And banks will be affected too.

[xray s]

3. help me understand

Is it correct to say that all the growth in GDP is accounted for by inflation, and not real growth in production?

And does it indicate we are paying inflated prices for defense industry products? Hmmm...we are at war and its a sellers market for the merchants of death?

[jeter]

4. Right.

Think of it this way. If prices and wages rise (inflation) then the economy automatically grows by that amount. If it comes under that figure, that means the economy is actually contracting (in real terms).

It just goes to show that last weeks display was really smoke and mirrors.

[caledesi]

6. Smoke and mirrors? Ya mean they aren't telling us the truth?

:thumbsdown:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. Inflation rose at an annual rate of 9.6%.

Can you explain the meaning of that vis-a-vis quarterly vs. anuual? What was the actual quarterly(monthly?) number?

[jeter]

9. Well it rose by 0.8% in October

If you multiply that by 12 than it equals 9.6%.

Just as the economy didn't actually grow by 7.2% in the third quarter. It grew by one-fourth that amount, or 1.8%. But you multiply that by 4 and you get the 7.2% figure.

Isn't it funny how the pundits never mentioned that the economy grew by only 1.8% in the third quarter. Rather used the annual figure. But with the inflation number today, they only mentioned what it was for the month.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

30. Gracias.

So, for the fiscal year, inflation didn't rise by 9.6% and the economy didn't grow at 7.2%. Iow, same old shitty economy, different day. And from my forays into the excellent daily "Stock Market" thread, Gold is nearing high tide marks and the dollar is being shown up by foreign currencies. Oh, and deficits and unemployment are reaching ever skyward. Thanks for cheering me up, jeter! (Where's my mattress?!)

[tritsofme]

7. Youre distorting some numbers,

what is the annualized rate of inflation minus auto sales?

And that number is for October, not Q3.

Yes, the personal bankruptcy number is very troubling.

[jeter]

10. Prices were up across the board

On everything except gasoline prices. But even heating oil (for homes) was up.

I saw it on NBC Nightly News. I don't remember all the figures. I only wrote down the October number.

[tritsofme]

12. I might be wrong, but I heard that autos numbers made the PPI artificially

high

[jeter]

13. tritsofme, I'm sick of the republican excuses

Inflation isn't so bad if you don't include auto sales, energy prices, food and god knows what else.

[jeter]

14. They were expecting a number to be around 0.2% to 0.3%

It came out 0.8%. Anyway you look at that. It's bad.

[tritsofme]

16. Im no republican my friend,

but those numbers arent necesarily bad when taken in context.

You also have to distinguish between PPI and CPI.

PPI goes back down substantially counting autos at the end of the year when prices go down on cars.

[jeter]

18. I wasn't calling you a republican

I was just making the statement generally that the GOP keep moving the goal posts.

And tritsofme, whenever inflation rises by 0.8% in one month - it's bad.

[tritsofme]

19. Im not saying that its not bad,

but it will only be very bad if it spills over into the CPI.

[jeter]

20. Well it was all consumer prices

I wish I had written the numbers down. But you're just going to have to trust me. Every single indicator, with the exception of gas prices, rose in October. Food was the worst. Everything.

There was no mention of PPI. It was all on the Consumers end.

[tritsofme]

23. Nope that wrong,

read the CNN link thats on this page.

CPI doesnt get reported until Tuesday.

It was PPI today.

[On the Road]

28. Well, If Prices Don't Rise

it will come out of corporate profits. It will be bad in a different way. As in many companies missing earnings forecasts. And the stock market plunging. And unless it's a brief spike, which is might be, it will eventually mean higher prices.

[tritsofme]

31. Your right,

like we've been saying about every other economic number, one month does not constitute a trend.

If this substantial increase in PPI continues, than that poses a problem, and it will probably lead to considerable increases in CPI next year, which will necessitate interest rates being highered.

[Fixated]

8. .......

http://kicktheleftist.blogspot.com/2003_11_09_kicktheleftist_archive.html#106884163423490786

CNN: Economy cooling off - http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/14/news/economy/economy/index.htm

Retail sales fall - http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/14/news/economy/retail_sales/index.htm

Personal bankruptcies shoot up - http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/14/news/economy/personal_bankruptcy.reut/index.htm

[jeter]

11. I wonder if Bush will accept responsibility

or blame his tax cuts - just as he was so eager to accept credit for the alleged recovery last week.

This has to be the shortest recovery in the history of recoveries.

[jeter]

15. Tax cuts + low interest rates + war = inflation

It's simple economics.

George Bush can officially say good bye to a second term.

[Fixated]

17. ....

They also didn't get the productivity = no immediate new jobs thing.

[Skittles]

24. Jeter, please remember

the bastard wasn't elected the first time

[NNN0LHI]

21. More bad news - Foreclosures up 34 percent in 2003

Foreclosures up 34 percent in 2003
By Andrea Jares
Star-Telegram Staff Writer
Fri, Nov. 14, 2003

Residential foreclosures rose 34 percent in the Metroplex this year, hitting the highest level since the real estate bust of the late 1980s and early 1990s, said George Roddy Sr., president of the Foreclosure Listing Service.

There were 28,164 homes posted for foreclosure in Tarrant, Dallas, Denton and Collin counties in 2003, including those listed for the Dec. 2 auction, according to figures released Thursday by the Addison-based company. In Tarrant County, 8,740 homes were posted for foreclosure this year, 30.3 percent more than the 6,710 homes posted in 2002.

The pace of foreclosures has picked up in the past few years, Roddy and others said, largely because of a sluggish economy that has left more people unemployed or underemployed.

Foreclosures increased 25 percent from 2001 to 2002 and 30 percent from 2002 to 2003, according to the listing service.

more

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/news/7261023.htm

[Robin Hood]

22. Yet all i hear from the know nothing talking heads is

"What are the Democrats going to run on now that the economy has turned around". One spurt of mixed numbers and they're all jerking themselves off. Exactly where is this liberal media that I keep hearing about?

[Skittles]

25. lol.....................LG

Mass circle jerks.

[On the Road]

26. WOW!

Funny how that number hit on a Friday afternoon.

[tritsofme]

27. These numbers do not come out indiscriminately,

there is a set calendar.

[ClintonTyree]

29. They always do..............

that's the way the government plays it, always has. They give investors a weekend to cool off and let the issue slide onto a back burner.

[KayLaw]

32. Link for Jeter

Here's a link that mentions the rise in prices that includes food : http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=114&topic_id=2523

It's from the Economic board.

[radfringe]

33. Euro vs Dollar

Dollar near lows as week ends
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1066565900638
By Jennifer Hughes
Published: November 14 2003 17:30 | Last Updated: November 14 2003 17:30

From a low of $1.144 on Tuesday, the euro rallied sharply to $1.1803 on Friday before ending London trade at about $1.1744.

Since markets interpreted the statement at the September G7 meeting as tacit acceptance of a weaker greenback, the euro and the dollar have lurched between about $1.14 and $1.185.

The bulls claim the outperformance of the US economy will increase demand for dollars, and push the euro-dollar rate closer to parity.

This week it was the bears' turn, and the dollar's slide gathered speed on Thursday after US trade numbers showed an unexpectedly sharp widening in the deficit. Part of the current account, the trade deficit means the dollar's exchange rate, if not supported by trade-based demand for the currency, is increasingly dependent on capital inflows.

----------------

this means imports are costing consumers more, which means less "disposable income" for households and that will translate into less spending....

-------------
meanwhile.....

AT&T Wireless to trim payroll even further
http://news.google.com/url?ntc=03SK0&q=http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2001791731_attwireless15.html
Seattle Times - 3 hours ago

NEW YORK AT&T Wireless Services increased its planned job cuts to 1,900 from 1,500 as the Redmond company seeks to reduce costs and increase profit.

[xchrom]

34. at some point the republicans

have to pay people off in the financial sectors -- they are after all important partners in the corporate facist state -- high deficits plus jumps in wholesale prices could very well be part of the road map for that pay off.
let's see if greenspan has anything to say about the jump in these indicators{not that he isn't the enemy, but he sometimes tips the map for everybody to see whats coming}

[jeter]

35. I expect 2004 to be a bad year economically

I had an economic professor who once said that you don't bet against a steamroller.

With these numbers - the rise in inflation, the collapse of the manufacturing sector and the fall of wages.

Coupled with the falling dollar and the rise of gold.

The Stock Market is probably overvalued by 10 to 20% - which means another "correction" is coming. In the 900 to 1,800 point range.

If interests rates rise (banks are already raising their rates) then the housing bubble will burst.

Add all this together and you're going to get a nasty downward spiral.

I expect it to come in the spring of 2004. Throughout the summer. May begin reversing itself in the fall. But it will be too late.

[tom_paine]

37. Jeter, I expect 2004 to "hold on by it's fingernails"

Remember, to quote Goebbels, for the Busheviks, "The struggle is a light one now as we are able to employ all the means of the state. Radio and press are at our disposal."

The Busheviks have the power to print money at will, they have the power of the Plunge Portection Team which I imagine has been set up, like much of the rest of the Empire under the Busheviks, as a giant engine of fraud and lies.

But watch out after 2004, which, sadly is likely to be a Stalinist Farce of an "election" with a predetermined outcome no matter who votes for what.

The Bushevik Economy is likely to let ut it's gut like a middle-aged man at the beach and only THEn will we see the true effects of the theft and fraud and lies....

[stewert]

38. Don't Forget The Type of Jobs Created !

I heard a guy named Foster Friess say 40% of those 116,000 jobs
created in October were low paying service sector jobs. He was on
that wall street show on PBS (Louis Rukeyser) friday night. Add that to
the fact that we lost 29,000 manufacturing jobs in october. And it was
the 28th month in a row we have lost manufactoring jobs.

Mr Friess said the 7.2% GDP number was bull, he said the dow is
over-valued, he said he sees another bubble and a crash, and he
said the media is spinning it for Bush.

He said we are trading high paying manufacturing jobs with health
care benefits, for low paying service sector jobs with no health care.

[Aidoneus]

36. but MSNBC said LUXURY stores are doing good

The rich can still afford diamonds and fur coats. That's what matters, people who shop at WalMart are not figured into the equation. :eyes:

[jeter]

39. Well that's something

At least rich people can still buy furs.