What Will We Say When Jindal Beats Blanco?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The 2000 debacle.... The midterm losses.... The recent loss of gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi....


We are getting our collective asses kicked.....


It's time to stand up straight..... Take the Kick Me sign off our asses ..... Be proud we're Democrats and start winning elections....


We are becoming a laughingstock....


on edit- WE LOST CALIFORNIA....THAT DEFEAT WAS SO AWFUL IT RECEDED INTO MY SUBSCONSCIOUS.....

[La_Serpiente]

1. Totally

I am just sick of losing all of these elections. I wouldn't mind if we lost Louisiana, Kentucky, and/or Mississippi, BUT California and the Senate was the last straw.

I could realistically understand why we lost California. I mean, Gray Davis was not the nicest person there is. However, losing the Senate was unexcusable. The DNC tried to consolidate the campaigns into one and disrupted the sovereignty of the candidates. We should have made the war the issue. I became totally sick when our leaders became rag dolls for the right, and that wasn't right.

[0rganism]

2. Say Jindal was the stronger candidate

Admit it: he's a sharp, opportunistic, clever, quick-thinking fellow. Whether you agree with him or not, it's not hard to see that he ran circles around Blanco in the C-Span debate. Add to that the powerful RNCC machine, and it's pure overkill.

Democrats need to find candidates who can represent the platform to voters, not just be content to have a platform and dangle a candidate out in front of it.

Kentucky and Mississippi aren't big surprises, tho. Any moderate has an uphill battle in those states, forget liberals. The south will have to go through a major upheaval of some sort before Democrats become as viable as republicans.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. KY and MS Were Democratic Seats....

and I see that folks on this board point to Louisiana on this board as a possible pick up in 04...


They ingore the fact that Landrieu and Breaux are extraordinary politicians....


I can see our nominee easily losing every southern state and the R's picking up senate seats in NC, SC, GA, and FL...


The party's in ruins... At least in the south...


I don't like RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie but I believe he's sincere; sincerely wrong...

Terry McCaullife reminds folks of Joe Isuzu....

[0rganism]

9. The southern Democratic contingent may be due to a partial holdover...

...from the dixiecrat days. Such votes will inevitably trend toward republicans, barring some Dean-inspired reversal in general outlook. KY and MS were just a matter of time.

Breaux is an exceedingly moderate Democrat, almost another Zell.

Goddess only knows how Mary Landrieu was able to pull it off. I know she seemed a helluva lot more alert than Blanco during the debates; she ran on her own merits, that much is certain. Her opponent may have hung herself with excessive attack ads. In any case, southern Dems can't count on party loyalty or help from the DNCC to pull them along at this point. The disaster of 2002 is evidence enough of the serious decline of southern Demcorats.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I'd Have To Look Closely At Breaux's Voting Record...

I know he was pro- war and I believe he supported the * tax cuts but he doesn't have the loathing for his own party that Zell Miller does.....


Zell views the Dems as a R would and interpets all their actions in that light... He ignores their "mainstream" positions and highlights their "extremist" positions....


He just wants to sell books....

That being said I share much of his diagnosis of the Dem's problems in the south but not his prescriptions....

[ShaneGR]

4. Lousiana swings based on the candidate

Heck, they just re-elected their Dem Senator, that race has more to with the quality of the candidate than the political party.

As for getting our asses kicked, we just did very well in Ohio.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Ohio Has A Republican Governor And Two Republican Senators...

Surely that's not a benchmark for success....

It wasn't so long ago that John Glenn and Howard Metzenbaum were representing Ohio in the Senate....

Make an argument that Voinovich is vulnerable in 04 and you will get my attention...


on edit-We don't control the Senate, the House, the Presidency, a majority of state houses.... We are at parity with the Republicans in party identification for the first time in two generations... We are in tatters...We should be called the lumpendemocrats.....

[ShaneGR]

12. Uhh,, did I say we did well in 02???

No, I said we just did very well in our October elections, with a swing towards the Dems unseen in 20 years. We'll see if that holds up in next years election...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. We Are Discussing National And Regional Historical Trends....

The Bengals might upset the Chiefs this week but that doesn't negate the fact that the Bengals have been one of the league's most pathetic franchises.....


Since the 1970's the Democrats have been on a downward slide by any conventional measure.....

The first step in any good recovery program is to admit you have a problem.....


The Dems have a big problem....

[Frodo]

21. There's no need to be insulting.

I mean... do we HAVE to be the BENGALS???

As for the rest, I'll go you one "better": I expect Breaux to retire and put that seat in jeapordy as well. I'm also nervous about SD. With the rate things are going, I expect one more "surprise" retirement putting another seat in the "tossup" category.

We have one or two shots at a pickup, but none of them is as certain as three or four of the southern states being lost. Short of shrub REALLY getting whooped, there is about zero chance of taking back the Senate. If shrub actually wins, he'll have 55-56 Senators backing him up.

Even if we win the White House (not a strong likelihood at this point), Dean (whoever) will get zero judges picked. Shrub is filling up those seats rapidly (and if he loses, expect him to fill every single vacancy immediately), so there will be no "judicial crisis" in the first couple years. They won't need to filibuster, they'll just vote "no".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Illinois Looks Like A Dem Pick Up

and possibly Alaska....

The nepotism charge stings there....


Any other pick ups


As a handicapper I'd say the Senate will be 56 -44 R after this election....

* will flood the nation with Neandterthal judges and the R's will flood the nation with reactionary legislation.


We'll go back to the 90's.....



The 1890's......

[hedda_foil]

40. Illinois isn't a gimme, unfortunately.

The Republican nominee will be Jack Ryan. He won't be beaten by a perceived Dem party hack (Hynes) or colorless millionaire (Hull). My take on the race is that our only really good shot against Ryan will be Obama.

Jack Ryan:

Education Undergrad Dartmouth, Law Degree and Business Degree from Harvard
Notes Announcing his campaign for the U.S. Senate, Ryan said his campaign is "about happiness . . .not only happiness for yourself but happiness to making other people fulfilled in their own lives."
"Young. Rich. Three Ivy League degrees. Aryiculate. Tall and handsome in a way that recalls JFK Jr. Not particularly outspoken on any hot-button issues, but so dedicated to the idea of helping others that he dropped out of the investment banking world several years ago to teach full-time at an inner-city high school." - Eric Zorn

"The establishment candidate, Jack Ryan, not only is charismatic but carries superb credentials." - Thomas Roeser

Divorced from TV star Jeri Lynn Ryan (Star Trek, Boston Public)

Buzzword - Happiness, says Republicans need to talk about it more.

First Republican to announce candidacy

[poskonig]

41. Jack Ryan looked clumsy during the last debate.

Oberweiss and McKenna looked the most polished to me. Oberweiss scares me because of all of his money. Ryan is trying to run an internet-based grassroots Howard Dean-style campaign, and like Dean, everyone isn't sure if that style of campaigning works, since we've never seen it before. In addition, Ryan has "negative name recognition," since he has the same last name of the recent corrupt governor.

Obama, Chico, Hynes, or Hull all should be able to do well should they win the primary. Hynes is probably the most electable, though Obama, despite his terrorist-sounding name, looks less Bushlite and therefore more preferable to me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. I Thought IL Was A Pickup...

It was a reliable blue state in 00 and the first midwestern state for the Bush team to throw the towel in on during the campaign....


04 is shaping up to be a watershed election for the Dems....


They are at rough parity now with the R's with the R's having an edge....


A blowout in 04 turns that edge into a decided advantage.....

[Cocoa]

43. Hull is not colorless

I like Obama too, but ironically I think Hull has more color. :-)

Grew up poor, union card as a teenager, volunteered two tours in Vietnam, self-made millionaire, etc. etc. These things go over beter in IL than Jeri Ryan.

http://www.blairhull.com/about/

[Frodo]

49. I rank IL as "tossup" and Alaska will go the way the country goes.

If Bush is walking to a victory a couple weeks before the election (all else being equal), there won't be enough Democrats showing up to the polls for a victory. Fl,PA,etc will have been called by about half-way through the voting day in Alaska. If Bush wins both of those states early (and/or is even close in NY,NJ,etc), LOTS of Alaskan Democrats will see little reason to vote.

The same effect (to a much lesser degree) could hurt Boxer if Republicans have a popular candidate (Dennis Miller?).


If it's a close one, the nepostism factor could win us that seat. That, and a little luck in the South, could keep things close in the Senate, but...

... if the main headlines a few weeks prior to the election are not "can Democrats take back the Senate?", but "can Bush get a filibuster-proof Senate?", we'll be in for a LONG night (about 4 years long). Boxer,Dascle and maybe one other could end up in the "danger" zone.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. When's The Last Time A Dem Won Alaska At The Presidential Level?

NT

[Frodo]

51. Not in my lifetime

I think.

But that wasn't my point. Bush could win Alaska easily and still have Knowles win the Senate seat. But lots of people concentrate on the top of the ticket. If the election is "over" five hours before the polls close, the losing party will have some thousands of voters just stay home (that was Reagan's real "coatails" in '84 - people on the west coast knew well before their polls closed that he had won in a walk-away. Some House Democrats did well below expectations because Democrats stopped showing up to vote).

Knowles will also suffer from those Demcorats in Alaska who favor ANWR drilling. They know that if Knowles wins he WOULD vote for ANWR, BUT they also know that if electing a Democrat means that Daschle is Majority Leader - it also means that Knowles will never get a CHANCE to vote for it. That benefits Murkowski even though they share positions on ANWR.

Also, being female and having the family name doesn't hurt.

So, yes - I am hopeful in Alaska... but if we lose GA,NC,SC,FL (and probably LA), I expect Alaska is a toosup at best.

[ShaneGR]

81. You know nothing about Alaska either

Tony Knowles is gonna win that Senate Seate from that lackey appointee who currently sits in that seat.


Thank you!

[ShaneGR]

71. You don't know jacksh*t about Ohio.... READ THIS NOW DEMSINCE!

Just as you don't know jacksh*t about Louisiana. You fell for all of the media lines about the Repugs, while those in Louisiana and those from the area I am from have seen it for what it is, BULLSHIT.

We are fine. Go read the Emerging Democratic Majority. Call me in the morning.

[ShaneGR]

73. Voinovich isn't vulnerable BECAUSE he's from Cleveland...grrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Cleveland is ULTRA-DEM. Unfortunately a certain guy who is running for President was once the Mayor of Cleveland. It didn't go very well. A guy named Voinovich was elected after him. The city started its rebuild and eventually many of his plans went very well. So Voinovich still garners Dem votes in Cleveland because people respect the job he did. If a Dem in Ohio doesn't win Cleveland by 100,000 votes, it's over before the shooting started. Glenn used to win it by 200,000. Metzenbaum the same. That is why Voinovich will never be vulnerable, he's simply too respected by a very Democratic area.




With that said, Mike Dewine (From SW Ohio) is VERY vulnerable in 06. His base is weak and the NE is finally voting overwhelmingly DEM again. Gov. Taft is the most unpopular Gov. in Ohio history.


This state is very winnable in 04, and if you don't believe that.... you've never looked at the vote results county to county.

[ClintonTyree]

6. I know what I'll say...................

that until Democrats start acting like Democrats, not Republicans, we will continue to lose these elections. Blanco has tried her damndest to portray herself as a "Republican Lite", that the people really don't have a choice. VOTER: "Whom shall I vote for, the Rebublican, or the Democrat who talks like a Republican?" "Might as well vote for the Republican". Until Democrats start acting like Democrats we're screwed. I put most of the blame for this policy on the DNC, it seems to be their strategy. The candidates themselves share the responsibility as well, they shouldn't try to be "right in the fight".

[kaitykaity]

7. Um . . . .

Didn't Mary Landrieu win? (Democrat. Louisiana.)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. The Big Runoff In Louisiana

Yes, Landrieu won.....

but we lost the Senate in the mid term elections....


Since then there have been three "big elections*", Cali, Missippi, and Kentucky.....


We lost all three.....


We're about to lose Louisiana tonight.....


Our winning pecentage is 167%. That sucks.... That's enough to get any coach run out of town on a rail...


*I don't count holding the Philadelphia mayoral seat a big win....

on edit -out of the past six "big" races we won one..... That's a 167% winning percentage.... That's unacceptable...

[0rganism]

10. Cali was anomalous

Remember, Gray Davis won that seat in 2002. He lost it primarily due to bastage Issa's abuse of the recall clause and a massive influx of repuke campaign moneys. ex-Gov. Davis was plagued by an attack press that idolized his opponent's every move, as well as misrepresenting his policies.

It's not a long-term trend, as far as I can tell. Arnold may just dig a deep enough pit to bury the entire repuke party of California for the foreseeable future. McClintock (the REAL republican) would have been a different story, so be thankful he didn't win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Cali Should Be A Reliable Part Of The Democratic Base

but the party is on such a losing streak I take nothing for granted....


I really think the Democrat's slide is remarkable and I don't think it has run it's course.....

[Donna Zen]

15. Alarmed is too soft a word.

McAuliffe sees the beltway crowd and thinks this is politics as usual. I have been agast watching the party run these primaries...er...really not run them. No one wants a second lockstep party in America, but showing a little disciplined leadership is not a bad thing. Petty...shifting blame...clue less.

Yep, things do not bode well. We have been given an opportunity to turn the lemons of war and a poor economy into a brighter future. I would like to think we could make that a reality. But nothing I am reading here and else where makes me think that will happen.

So I'm taking care of business in my corner of the world. We're in for a bumpy ride.

Ohio? Maybe the bad economy will paint that puppy blue, but culturally that state, the home of husband, is still red. When 10% of the people control 90% of the wealth, lots of illusions can and will be created.

So color me alarmed and amazed, that we would ever think that the repubs will take this next election lying down. A minimum of 4 Senate seats unless the ticket has coat tails.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I Don't See How A State That Puts Taft In The State House

and DeWine and Voinovich in the Senate can be called a positive harbinger for the Democratic party...

[Donna Zen]

23. How about this

A state that sanctions the teaching of creationism suddenly becomes an easy Dem mark. Okay? Nuff said?

Growing up next door in PA, it was always a wonder to my parents how a state with strong unions managed to stay in the Rep. ranks. That, and what came to be known as "Ohio cars"* on the street, are my earliest impressions. *(Ohio had no inspection, so anything that could go-- went.)

BTW, for the record. I lived there for 10 years and consider it part of my prime stompin' grounds.

A polarizing head of the Dem ticket could undo any dissatifation with the regime. IMHO.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Ohio

went R in 1968

went R in 1972

went D in 76 by 9,000 votes

went R in 80

went R in 84

went R in 88

went D in 92

went D in 96

went R in 00

on edit- I would put our chances in Ohio in 04 at about the same as FL... 3-1....I think most political handicappers would take those odds..... We're still a year out so I'll hedge by bet but I can say with near 100% certainty that this election will turn on the p-e-r-c-e-p-t-i-o-n of the economy and the "war on terror".... The nominee will be of secondary importance... A broadly acceptable nominee is a necessary but not sufficient condition for electoral success....

[ShaneGR]

83. I think you don't know anything about Ohio except who won in a year

You probably couldn't even name 5 Ohio counties, so what do you know?

[demodan]

32. I live in Southern Ohio

I Don't See How A State That Puts Taft In The State House and DeWine and Voinovich in the Senate can be called a positive harbinger for the Democratic party...

I live in Southern Ohio in a decidedly lower income area. Normally one would think it would be heavy Democrat voter country being most jobs are Union Blue Collar, but Hell we hardly ever even run Democrats in local elections. The pubbies have this area locked up.

[ShaneGR]

84. GRRRR......

Read all my other posts..... grrrr...

[JI7]

24. california is part of the anti right wing base

california is not totally democratic based on party label alone. it has a lot to do with the face that many republicans who have ran statewide in recent elections have been right wingers. barbara boxer who is liberal has a harder time winning her elections than dianne feinstein who is most popular and has a pretty easy time winning now. california is very much liberal on issues like abortion rights and gun control which most if not all republicans who ran in major state elections opposed. arnold was portrayed as a moderate. the media whores also helped him in their whoring for him and their constant attacks on davis. if not for the media whores the recall would not have passed. even when the sexual abuse charges and other negative things about arnold came out the media helped in making it seem as if it was because of "dirty campaiging" by his opponent rather than examining the facts. the whores wanted arnold to win.

[bearfartinthewoods]

62. philly hasn;t had a pubbie mayor in 55 yrs,,,,,,,,n/t

[ShaneGR]

82. You missed about 25 cities in Ohio, AGAIN

Go look up Ohio election results from this month. Look around the state.


THINK.

[loudnclear]

14. We may be the "laughingstock" to Repugs but they will be crying through

their sneers when all is said and done. To be concerned about being the laughingstock of people you don't respect is ridiculous on its face. Why should you care if you hold these people in such low esteem? Or do you? If you don't then you really have a big problem.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. It Has Nothing To Do With Holding Folks In Esteem....

They are laughing at us because we keep losing elections....


The "laughing at us" is a small piece of the big picture....


The big picture is we keep losing elections... Not all of them of course as other posters have accurately pointed out but enough of those that matter to confirm we have a major problem....


I take solace in the fact that the two parties are at rough parity with the Republicans owning an edge.... At this rate I won't be able to say this in 2004.....

[JI7]

19. not to take black vote for granted

in louisiana jindal seems to be winning because people don 't see much difference in the issues, but many black voters see in jindal a minority who was able to make it up and someone they can point to for their kids and to show they also can do it. and even though discrimination against black americans is far worse and goes back many years than anything against south asians, it's still a chance to take into account other factors since there isn't m uch difference on the issues.

[JI7]

20. and

it should be pointed out that mary landrieu did a very good job in showing a difference between her and her opponent on the issues which helped get out the vote for her.

[HFishbine]

22. I will say...

Jindal who? Blanco who?

[dusty64]

25. It will blow my theory of

a backlash against incumbents outta the water. I will have to rethink my idea of whats going on.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Foster (R) Is The Incumbent....

NT

[dusty64]

111. Guess the theory holds.

At least on the state level a great deal of anger is out there. The People hunger for change and its up to the Democrats to give it to them. The first step would be to stop the infighting and come up with a positive plan to fix our Country and Planet and help the People. Next step is to point out the failures and crimes of our regime and the rethugs in general (the media won't). If done properly a landslide is NOT out of the question. No wonder the extreme "right" is nervous and were'nt bragging too much about their "wins". The battle has begun and even the electronic machines may not save them now. Lets focus on the REAL enemy.

[Cocoa]

29. you're rooting for the wrong side

Your post isn't analysis, it's cheerleading, on election day. But you're cheerleading for the wrong side.

Me, I say Go Blanco! :toast:

[Ferretherder]

30. You hit the nail on the head, Cocoa!

Go Blanco! I'm leaving the house to go vote for her in just a few minutes now. Ya'll wish us luck, down here...we'll need it!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. If I Go To The Doctor And He Tells Me My Blood Presssure

is 240 over 120 is he cheerleading that I have hypertension?

If I go to my dentist and she tells me my gums are infected is she cheerleading that I have periodontal disease?

If I go to my accountant and she tells me my company's book are out of balance is she cheerleading that I am insolvent....

Nice cheap shot but it does about as much to solve the problem as the doctor who tells the terminal patient he's fine....

We have twenty out of fifty governors.... We don't control the senate... We don't control the presidency... We don't control the house.....

We're in danger of losing every open southern senate seat in 04...

The first step to solving a problem is acknowledging it...


And in closing, every point I made in this thread was based on cold logic not emotion....

[Cocoa]

34. you're not a doctor

or a psychic either. Your thread title says "WHEN". That's not logic, that's nonsense. It's even worse than the TV people calling the election before it's over, at least the TV people cite polls and such, though they're no bargain either.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. I Am Almost A Doctor..... Doctor Of Philosophy...

I completed twenty four hours of post graduate work in Government at Florida State University....

I based my prediction on available polls,recent history, trends, and the general tenor of the campaign....

The Jindal v Blanco election is but a small piece of a big puzzle...


The global discussion is the erosion of support for the Democratic party in the south....

[Cocoa]

37. you have to be kidding

you back up your silly guess with your academic creds? If you have all this evidence, why didn't you share it right up front?

A philosophical question: what is the point of guessing like this on election day? Why can't it wait, philosophically speaking, until the actual result is known?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Cuz I'm Not Here To Tout My Academic Creds...

Recent polls show Jindal ahead....

I believe Jindal had 33% of the vote to Blanco's 18% in the first election... It seems 33% to 50% is closer than 18% to 50%...

The tenor of the campaign favors Jindal....

The incumbent governor is an R...

Could Jindal lose?

Sure....

Would it do much to damage my thesis that the Democratic party is in bad shape in the nation but in really bad shape in the south?

I think not....

Let's recite the facts again....

Out of the four most populous states in the Union they all have Republican governors....

Out of fifty governors the Dems have twenty one....

The Dems have lost ground in the midterms and have lost three out three of the last gubernatorial races-Kentucky, Mississippi, and California

The R's have substantially more money and a more sophisticated fund raising apparatus....

The Dems don't control the Senate....

The Dems don't control the House....

The Dems don't control the presideny.....

The Dems have lost their historical lead in party identification for the first time in two generations....

"what is the point of guessing like this on election day"

If I put on my academic's hat I would say it's the job of the social scientist to undertand, analyze, and predict behavior....

As a layman who likes to predict the outcomes of sporting events I'll just say it's fun to make predictions....

The Dems have profound problems... Denying them won't make them go away......

[ShaneGR]

91. Your polls be the CRAPPO

And I'm not talking about the Senator from Utah!

[ShaneGR]

77. In retrospect, COCOA HAD THE BEST RESPONSE.........BY FAR

Wow, you nailed it. GO BLANCO, the new Governor of Louisiana.

[Josh]

31. We'll do what we always do -

Turn on the candidate. And then, ourselves.

[jfxgillis]

35. Dunno about you, but I'll chortle

discreetly.

The GOP in LA is SCREWED if Jindal wins. Nailed to the wall.

Not dissimilar to what the CA GOP is facing, or what the GOP in AL faced. They've nailed themselves into a coffin. They can't raise taxes without splitting the state party but they can't balance the budgets without raising taxes.

[SoCalDem]

39. I will say.... "Touchscreen voting" is a republican's best friend

:(

[jiacinto]

44. please

you are discredting the BBV issue each time you scream "stolen election" when a Republican wins. The voters, as hard as it is for you to believe, do pick Republicans in close elections sometimes.

[ShaneGR]

78. Not in this state you won't

BOOYAA!

[mvd]

45. Is it possible there is a North/South split?

During the midterms, the whole country seemed to be in a "patriotic" ferver. But now, it seems like parts of the country are getting more Democratic and others more Republican than ever.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. That's An Excellent Point....

I try not to make "global conclusions" but it appears the Republicans are consolidating their power in places where they are strong and the Democrats are consolidating their power in places where they are strong... It just seems the R's have more places to consolidate....


Even a broken clock is right twice a day and Zell Miller is correct that you can't call yourself a national party when you write off one third of the nation...


It seems the R's are competitive just about everywhere....

[mvd]

47. And I agree with your point

The Repukes do have a lot of places to consolidate. Because of this, there's not much we can do besides running a candidate that can appeal to the forgotten mainstream, and hope for the best. Boy, I'd love to have Kucinich, but this country isn't ready for people like him. :-(

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. The Major Arguments On This Board Are Between The Progressive

and moderate or center left Dems....

IMHO, there are very few conservative Dems on this board if Zell Miller is the benchmark...

That being said, it not what you say in politics as much as how you say it.... Perception trumps reality....

The challenge is to make the other guy look like an extremist....

For instance.... LBJ basically said in 1964 vote for me cuz I'm mainstream and my opponent is an extremist... He didn't say vote for me cuz I'm a liberal and my opponent's a conservative....

[ShaneGR]

79. NO

Just overly red states like Mississippi, and swing states like Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia...

[LeftyLover]

52. No resonation of the message

I say it is a communication problem!

There is no clear cut liberal message getting to the people of middle America. They just aren't being educated properly with a message that touches them.

Either that or they just aren't smart enough to vote the right way!!!!

[Frodo]

53. I never thought of that! In all my years of following politics...

... I never thought of calling the voters stupid!

What was I thinking?! Yeah, that'll do it.

< /sarcasm>

[LeftyLover]

55. What else?

Would you call it?

Look at how much ground we have lost in the past few weeks!!!!!

Our party is being thrown out of office in record numbers and you don't think that the voters are stupid????

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. All These Smart Guys And Gals On This Board And The Solution Escapes Them

We just need to find a new electorate....

[ShaneGR]

80. We found it

It was always there.

[Frodo]

57. Pretty simple - pay attention now...

BBV aside, this country is supposed to be run by the consent of the governed. You win elections when a majority (or plurality) of voters in your district/state/whatever agree that you are the right person for the job.

THEY get to decide who runs things, you see. Not voting for YOU is NOT evidence that they lack intelligence. It is evidence that you either a) did not explain your positions/philosophy well enough (in which case, the loss is YOUR fault), or b) You really aren't the person they want representing them because you DON'T represent them.

Political philosophy is not the same thing as intelligence. Smart people can disagree with you. Dumb people can agree with you.

Each vote counts the same.

Florida aside.

[LeftyLover]

58. So then why

Are we losing so much power since 2000????

HUH?

Are you saying the country hates liberals?

NO! I don't believe it!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

59. According To The Latest Survey Data (Harris)

18% of Americans identify themselves as liberal...


40% of Americans identify themselves as moderate....


and


35% of Americans identify themselves as conservative....


The laws of math are immutable....

We need to reach out to "moderate" voters to win...

I guess if we were a multiparty sysytem the moderate party would rule by itself and making occasional alliances with liberals and conservatives...

We liberals are outnumbered.... We need to reach out....

[LeftyLover]

60. That is what I was saying!

We need to educate the flyover country of middle America!

These people just don't realize what is good for them, it is a education problem.

[Frodo]

63. There you go again.

"These people just don't realize what's good for them"???

What do you suppose the results would be if Dean used that in a Campaign ad? We wouldn't win D.C.!


To paraphrase a Martin Sheen character "The people have a funny way of deciding for themselves what is or isn't good for them".

For you to think that you know better than the majority of people in, say, NC what "is good for them" is the height of arrogance.

Edit - And it NEVER wins elections.

[Frodo]

61. Yes. That's what I'm saying

Why do you suppose so many Democrats call themselves "progressive" and not "liberal"???

You are saying we need to change everyone's mind - I say we need to give a message that appeals to a majority of voters. It ISN'T the same thing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

64. You Can't Blame Folks For Being Frustrated...

It's disheartening to lose power and see no propspects of regaining it.....


I'm not looking to create the New Jerusalem just a place where folks' individual liberties are protected, the social safety net is intact, and war is the weapon of last resort....

[Frodo]

65. "No hope of regaining power"??? Heck, it SHOULD be easy.

Just go back to being Democrats again should be fine.

People make the mistake of assuming there are three political positions (exmpting the wierdos): Liberal on the left, Conservative on the Right and "Moderate" in the middle.

They are wrong.

As we use the labels now (and things do change), there are FOUR divisions in politics. "Conservative" is just to the right of center, "Moderate" is just to the left of Center. The "Radical Right" (or "ultra conservative or variations on that theme) are way off to the right and "Liberals" are off to the left (though not as wacky as the right end of the spectrum).

The problem is that WE associate "conservative" with the far right, and LOTS of people in the middle consider themselves "conservative" or "moderate/conservative" and when we put down the far right, we use language that makes them think we are talking about THEM.

"Democrat" used to completely encompass "Liberal" AND "Moderate" and even a few Conservatives (the Zell Millers of the world). and we WON time after time after time. And the "liberal" agenda got more play then it EVER does now because the party couldn't afford to ignore us (just like the Republicans would shrivel up and die if they ignored the "Christian Right").

But NOW we see "Democrat" more and more often as synonymous with "Liberal". And that makes moderates (and there are a hell of a lot more of them than there are liberals) nervous. It even makes numbers of them vote for the other guy (the "Reagan" democrats).

Frankly, I think Zell Miller is right. We held the South with men just like him. He was the most popular politician in GA (by a lot). Democrats used to control Congress with dozens and dozens of Zell Millers. They didn't always vote the way DUers would like, but they DID give us the majority - and by huge margins so that we could stand a few defections on each vote. And that's a heck of a lot better than what we have now. People say there are few such representatives left in Congress. I say they are wrong - they just call themselves "Republicans" now.

[sujan]

54. more power to him

[jpgray]

66. Nothing, because Jindal got his ass handed to him!

:D

[robsul82]

67. Here's your ASS, Bobby!

Hahahahahaha!

Later.

RJS

[ShaneGR]

68. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

Mr. Demoralizer Since birth seems to have gotten his arse handed to him.

Well, I'm not demoralized.... and we Dems will be JUST fine.



KEEP FIGHTING!!!! GOOD JOB LOUISIANA!

[burr]

69. hey bobby...how did your mother vote?

how about your wife??? ;(

[ShaneGR]

70. You thought this thread would die???

It never will, I will bump it forever.

[jenk]

72. tonight was the turning point

we're taking the country back

[ShaneGR]

74. You betcha

It actually started on election day two weeks ago. While we lost those governors races in ALREADY RED STATES. We were doing REALLY well in a LOT of our battleground states. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia, Florida, Nevada....etc.... were voting very Dem.

Everyone ate up the media spin.... it was crap.

[ronzo]

75. ooof.....

eom

[ShaneGR]

76. Hoobatcha dooey mada mistakey

me thinksey

[ronzo]

85. Aptly put.

Dump Terry.

EOM

[ShaneGR]

86. Hmmmmm dowha you onleee wanteee?

Or dowha will makus allabetter?

Me seey no debty, lots o money for the nominee.

[ronzo]

88. OK, I'm baffled.

Sure, I'm on beer...

I tried babelfish. There's no jar-jar > english

[ShaneGR]

89. Yabba Dabba Dooyaa

DNC gonna take over the world!

[ronzo]

92. Ink-a-dink-a-doo

Muck Fichigan.

[Isome]

87. Pessimism isn't the same as realism.

This is a very negative thread. I'm surprised we, as Democrats, would want to discuss inevitable defeat in the middle of voting. That makes me sad, and we (Dems) actually won.

This defeatist attitude is part of the problem. Mainstream media puts it out there, the far less savvy general population buys it, and so do some people here.

Come on people, we can do better than this. The topic here wasn't an issue; it wasn't a contingency plan, it was more like a bitch fest for those who are moderate and feel that the Democrats aren't appealing to them. That's just wrong.

WE WON!!! Great job Blanco!

[ShaneGR]

90. Actually Isome.............

I think the thread starter felt the Dems weren't being liberal enough, not moderate. You reversed it in your own head.

:-)

[Isome]

93. You're right...

The most recent posts, beginning around #46 or 47, fooled me. I was thinking the bulk of the dialogue was about appealing to the center / the swing voters / the moderates.

Actually, "Democrats acting like Democrats" is a good idea. Maybe this win will erase some of that pessimism.

[ronzo]

94. Can we finally agree that McAuliffe needs to go?

Ineffective.

[Lexingtonian]

96. No.

Because he isn't.

[ronzo]

98. Hate to do it this way, but... How effective is he?

I think it's time for a new face. Why do we accept the red herring that is Louisiana as a victory for the DNC? The party support seemed absent in this race. Meh.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

100. I Hate Kicking This Thread

but I will.....

I did say in one post that Louisiana is a small part of a larger argument and even a Blanco win doesn't negate the Democratic slide....


I made the analogy (with apologies to my Ohio friends) that even if the Bengals upset the undefeated Chiefs today they are still one of the most pathetic teams in recent NFL history....


Here's another analogy even if the Los Angeles Clippers "steal" a game or two from the Lakers this season they are still one of the most pathetic teams in recent NBA history....

The Democrats don't control any of the major apparatuses of power. We ignore that fact at our peril and worse the peril of vulnerable folks who depend on us....

[ronzo]

102. I digress...

Point taken.

I'm celebrating our meager victory. :)

Let's rally.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

104. In The Scheme Of Things

the ego of a anonymous poster on a bulletin board is of mere consequence....


Sure, I'm happy we won the Louisiana State House..... I'd take one hundred Blancos over my governor Jeb Bush and the only thing I know about Blanco is she has a D after her name....

I bleed Democrat.... It's part of me......


That being said... The R's still control twenty nine governorships, the governorships of the four most populous states in the Union including "Democractic base states", New York and California... They control the House, the Senate, and the Presidency.....

If this victory makes us forget these facts and slip into denial then it's value will be diminshed....

[Isome]

106. McAuliffe = Ineffective

I agree.

[Lexingtonian]

95. Oh, grow up.

So a bunch of generally mediocre Democrats got defeated, and each of them knows why. Cue your mourning and misinterpretation of vicissitudes as cursedness.

I've seen enough Democrats win elections and then fail to deliver, or even stand up for, what they proposed to. The phrase "hollow victory" does mean something specific.

About this "being tired of" losing elections, well, it's easy to sympathize. But doesn't that just beg the implication that you just can't make do without (political) power, which is merely power for its own sake, if you refuse to worry about the other qualities? Or just a kind of pride that assumes entitlement, that you/we deserve it without providing sufficient evidence and argument?

Look, we are in for another year of much ambiguity and more casualties among Old Democrats. But once the last bout of the internal illness of adolescent power-neediness, represented by the Dean faction, is overcome, all the other trends are there for return to majority standing in 2004 and 2006. Basically, it's only going to get better during the next year.

I can't share your defeatist pessimism or simple desire to ruin our opponents. They exist in order to clear out the conservative Old Democrats because we couldn't/wouldn't/didn't do it ourselves, and that is something of a service (even if it comes at a high cost). And if you do bother to look at the numbers, Republicans in fact hold the South by very thin margins overall. The Democratic Party has greatly reformed and looks/sounds/speaks a lot more like America as it is and will become, which is 35% -soon 40%- non-white, and acting in the best interests of the whole. That's not the way the Party really was in 1992 or 1994.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

97. I Am Very Competitive...

I like to win......


I make no bones about it.... If the Dems don't win elections they can never assist the people they exist for to help...


Also, could you elaborate on your Dean statement...

[Lexingtonian]

112. Well,

when the stakes aren't really very high for the society, as it was in the 1950s, it's pretty reasonable to treat politics as sports competition. But sometimes- like in recent years- politics just is something only slightly short of actual warfare and violence, because a whole social order is changing and the last unreformed establishments/elites and their foolish allies are in a conspiracy against the interests and welfare of the whole, the common good.

So I find that predictions and analysis using the standards to judge warfare simply work better in the present climate. Which is to say, the tally of losses taken doesn't necessarily tell who is making the real/permanent gains, who is going to win the next battle, or who is winning the war. Noting your other thread (about 'getting out of the prediction cycle'), I do find the same power dynamic and psychological dynamic to the present 'Culture War' as can be found in stretches of the Civil War. The present Presidential term fits well to a stretch from fall 1863 to (probably) very late 1864. A lot of the present major politicians match up well to generals then, campaign progress matches to gains in particular war theaters, a time match of the confrontations works beautifully, etc.

***

The picture I have gotten of the Dean campaign is that it looks a lot like a Democratic campaign but it really has no underlying Democratic foundation of any strength. (If so, it's maybe the Northern equivalent to the DLC's Southern one.) It doesn't have real ideas, unless one counts the central theme of recovering the status quo in the economy and the culture of approximately the mid/late Nineties, though of course with a much diminished degree of public partisan rancor. The emotion that sustains it is centered on feeling powerful, and this achieved by using George Bush and Howard Dean as its Manichaean demiurges. The Gnostic religious overtones are everywhere in the talk of the Dean followers- the arrogance, the selfimportance, the sense of secret knowledge, the rituals, the mass hypnosis or ecstasies, the notion of belonging to the winning side in an Apocalyptic showdown, the apparent complete willingness to sacrifice anything for the outcome, the Black/White dichotomy they see in everything.

What's wrong with that is several things.

In the historical picture, neither Dean nor his followers (heavily white and middle class) really seem to understand the stakes of the Culture War, or rather: they want to settle it at an armistice on favorable terms. This gets them into the Confederate Flag Blunder, and out of sufficient favor with black and probably Jewish and ultimately Hispanic voters. It is probably characteristic of this positioning that Dean has afaik never talked about the key Culture War thing Democrats are doing- blocking those radical Right nominees for high tier judgeships via the filibusters in Congress. (The point of these nominees is to keep safe, if not increase, the business establishment's extensive privileges. Secondarily, to appease the allies of that establishment: the theocratic establishment and its base's need for white privilege.)

In the theological/philosophical sense, Bush and his side are already running on a Gnostic footing and their base expects it. So Dean is trying to compete on the same basis. That showdown is going to be each side painting its side as the Light Side and the other as the Dark Side in an absolutist way of thinking. It's a showdown Democrats would lose, easily. For one thing, as we know Republicans can go lower in the gutter and trenches and still have their voters turn out. Secondly, their standard God, Guns, and Gays platform will be able to stop Dean's portrayal of them as the Dark Side with all conservatives and conservative leaners- that's too engrained. In showdowns in Gnostic logic, the Dark Side almost always wins- always the first encounter and most of those that follow, but never the very last one. This is (though he doesn't think about it in these terms exactly) why Rove is confident of beating Dean- Dean can only win in the present, middle, range of polarization. Bush can easily beat him in a campaign that is far more moderate or rather more extreme, people choosing the devil they know over the one they don't.

The first major thing the more vehement and blinded-by-faith Dean followers are naive about is this: in wanting to fight the Dark Side head on, they will generally be defeated when they actually meet it on these terms they have chosen. The second is this: the rest of the world, not just the direct opponents, destroy groups of destruction-promoting Gnostics when they are weak. This is because every group of Gnostics will in time see its Final Encounter arriving and try to wreak destruction on the rest of the world.

So I believe the Dean movement is power-centric, it has superficial relationship to or understanding of the moment in American history, its ideological underpinnings are unserious, and no one really knows what it stands for other than getting GWB out of office. While I can't say many good things about the campaigns that are their competition, they continually really remind me of a dysfunctional neopagan religious group which I saw running amok in my college days.

+++

The Democratic nominee obviously has to be someone who can give and take the hard knocks that are coming. But with Dean the general campaign focus would predictably soon go on the two 'personalities' and entirely off any real issues, as both sides muddy the waters entirely with extreme accusations no average voter feels competent to judge. To win, the Democratic nominee has to keep the glaring light of public scrutiny on Bush's record and actions, and keeping the argument about the principal problems and potential solutions that really concern voters. The general campaign has to be a conversation kept on what voters need. There has to be a trust component, derived from an idea that the nominee sees all the many subtle, hidden, problems comprehensively and understands them properly- that is Bill Clinton's great forte. The next President needs a lot of that, because there is a lot that needs to get done right again.

(Lordy, do I get longwinded. Oh well. Hope there's something in there that was worth reading all the extraneous and repetitive stuff.)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

120. Since This Thread And My Wrong Prediction Is Going To Get Kicked

here's my answer and see if we agree...

Electoral politics is about claiming the center and making your opponent look extreme.... Some times it works (1964 and 1972) and sometimes it doesn't (1980)....

If you can successfully define yourself as mainstream and your opponent as extreme you will do well... LBJ and Nixon scored landslide victories by claiming the mainstream for themselves while successfully defining their opponents as extremists..

Jimmy Carter tried to define Reagan as extremist in 1980... A majority of voters didn't share his definition....

[0rganism]

99. This may be the tastiest crow you ever eat, DSB

And I'll help myself to a plateful, too. I thought Jindal was a sho-in, but Blanco prevailed. Amazing. I can only wonder what kind of spin this will generate among the media whores.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

101. I Made A Mistake....

To err is divine; to forgive is truly human...


I love the Miami Dolphins.... Maybe I should predict they will lose the rest of their games....

Then they will win and make me very happy......

[ronzo]

103. I'll forgive you, friend.

My wife had the same notion of impending doom. We won this one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

105. My Mistake Was Relying On Intution...

There really weren't alot of polls to rely on and the available polls had it too close to call with either candidate having a slight edge....

[ronzo]

107. I relate.

I'm not afraid to put my prognostications out there either.
There's something to the informed hunch.
Here's to being off....

:toast:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

108. My Mistake Was Ignoring

the "reversion to the mean" theory....

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ReversiontotheMean.html



The human species gets larger and larger because of breakthroughs in medicine, diet, technology, et cetera but eventually the size of humans will revert to the mean... You won't have ten foot tall , four hundred pound humans...


I was projecting future Democratic losses based on previous Democratic losses...


A grievous lapse in logic for which I must make penance...

[ronzo]

109. Louisiana is contrary to conventional political theory.

Please don't base any future national models on our Louisiana.

Thank you.:)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

110. Be Happy

You have a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators....


I think Mary Landrieu is great....

[Ferretherder]

113. And I'll jump in here and say....

...I AM happy to NOW live in a state with a Democratic governor and two Dem senators! Blanco was definitely NOT my first choice for the Dem candidate to run against Jindal, because she is WAY too moderate, in my opinion, but she was the only one with enough votes behind her to challenge the HEAVILY financed, hand-picked successor to Repug Mike Foster...so I voted for her, anyway.

It really is sad, though, that I would have voted for ANYONE with a (D) after their name, just to keep another Repug from gaining office in this country.........such is the sorry state of the political landscape in this day and age. But, I'll keep pullin' that lever for (D)'s and NEVER look back, because a bad Democrat beats a good Republican, ANYDAY, in my book. Sorry, that's just how I feel.

[Aidoneus]

114. "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!"

:shrug:

[Cocoa]

115. if Jindal had won

you still would have been talking out of your ass.

You still would have been guessing, except instead of having guessed wrong you would have guessed right.

And of course, you would be here telling us how the result proved your point. :-)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

116. I Hate To Do This...

2000- Dem's lose the White House in a hotly contested election and results...

2002 Midterms- Dems lose House and Senate seats....

2003- Dems lose the California, Kentucky, and Mississippi State Houses and win one in Louisiana...


Besides the problem of quantifying the loss of the White House, the Senate, and the State House of the most populous state in the Union versus picking up the State House in Louisiana we'll just score them equally...

That's one win and six losses.... I think that was the overarching point I was trying to make.

That's a .142 winning percentage....

If I was a coach with that record in the NFL the fans and the general manager would be clamoring for my head...

Is a .142 winning percentage acceptable to you?

[GumboYaYa]

118. LOL - 142% winning percentage.

Hell they've won more elections than have been held.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

121. Thank You

NT

[Terwilliger]

117. what the hell is this?

You're bitching about losing yet not addressing the problems.

You expect Blanco to lose.

You equate California's election to anything resembling reality?

We're a laughingstock because we're bending over trying to be Republicans.

Did you see the vote totals in Mississippi? 94% of the black vote went for Musgrove, while Barbour got more than 80% of the white vote. I think "The South" is clear. Now it's time for the Democratic party to plant a stake firmly in the left, and stick to it. Get a backbone! Stop compromising! That's why Dems are losing! They compromise and pander and try to make everyone believe that they're all things to all people. It needs to stop.

[elperromagico]

119. Blanco has won

so don't worry about Louisiana. :-)