Zogby Poll: Dean Does Best Among Independents & Southerners

[HFishbine]

Remember that all-important 20% in the middle? They prefer Dean over the other dems.

Democrats favor Dean with 16%, followed by Clark (13%), Lieberman (10%), and Gephardt (9%), while Independents like Dean (13%), Gephardt (11%), Lieberman (6%), and Clark (5%).

You've heard that Clark will have appeal in the south, but Dean wont?

Dean is the leader in the South with 13%, followed by an 8% tie of Edwards, Lieberman, and Sharpton.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=755

[Renew Deal]

1. This is old and a statistical anomaly,

This poll went against everything we have ever seen. I was calling it a meme buster. it almost seemed strategic. Very Strange

[HFishbine]

2. Wanna back that up?

It was released November 6th.

I'm a poll junky. If you have a more recent poll that shows something different, I'd be happy to click on a link.

[Renew Deal]

5. Go to polling report

They are all different. Just look around. The Marist Poll was also a statistical anomaly in a different way.

[mzmolly]

8. Speaking of Polling Report....

http://pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm :toast:

[HFishbine]

13. Still Don't Know What You Are Talking About

I still don't know what you are talking about. The latest poll at Polling Report shows Dean in the lead nationally with 14% and Gephardt second with 12%.

Nothing about independents or geographic breakdown though.

(http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm)

The latest national Marist poll shows Dean in first with 16% and Lieberman second with 12%.

It shows Clark trailing Bush by the widest margin among the Democrats: 55% to 36%.

Nothing about independents or geographic breakdown though.

(http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/usapolls/PZ031104.pdf)

Like I said, if you have a link to some data that shows a different picture about the independents or the south, I'm sure DUers would find it of interest -- or you could just ask us to take your word for it...

[Pastiche423]

3. November 6, 2003 is old?

Likely Democratic primary voters ages 50-64 favor Dean (18%), Gephardt (12%) and Clark (11%), while Seniors (ages 65+) are divided in their support of Clark and Dean at 14% each, followed by Gephardt and Lieberman at 12%.

The older and wiser group favor Dean. I like that.

[Renew Deal]

7. Sorta

these days 9 days ago is almost a long time. The writer presents it as it came out today. No mention of the date.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Have A Big Problem With Zogby's Internals

meaning the polls within the polls or regional breakdown or crosstabs....

Zogby had Gore beating * in the final 00 poll....


Kudoes to him....


He also had Gore beating * in the south....


We all now that * shellacked Gore in the south with only TN , FL and WV being remotely competitive....


I guess that poll is still in the Zogby archives...

[PROGRESSIVE1]

10. NO!!! In the final weeks of the 2000 campaign......

Zogby was the only poll to detect the "SLIGHT SHIFT" in favor of Gore. All other polls had Bush ahead by 2-3% points. Remember, Gore won 550,000 more votes than the current occupant of the WH.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Please ReRead My Post

I gave Zogby props for his correct 00 pick but his internals were off....

He had Gore beating Bush in the South.....

Actually, Newsweek, CBS,and Harris had picked Gore as the winner or a tie cuz that's what it essentially was:

Gore 48.9%

* 48.2%

Nader 2.7%

or something like that...

It's hard to pick a winner when the candidates were separated by less than a percentage point...

[Patriot_Spear]

6. Ouch- sad day for the Dean bashers...

'nuff said.

[MIMStigator]

9. Name recognition. In the real election, Clark would win more independents

and moderate repukes.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. Agreed!

Clark 04'


:dem:

[Patriot_Spear]

12. You're right, Clark will make a great Vice President!

:evilgrin:

[Pastiche423]

14. No he won't!

I am agnostically praying that Dean is intelligent enough to stay far away from clark.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Me Too.....

I'd hate to have Wes Clark carry the stain that Sargent Shriver, Geraldine Ferraro, and Lloyd Bentsen have to carry....

The stain of being part of a ticket that went down to a ignominious defeat....

[Scott Lee]

17. Heavens! I guess reaching out to poor White southern workers

is.........working!

Grief counseling for Dean Bashers is now available.

[KittyWampus]

18. The Numbers Are BOGUS- At Least As Presented

When talking about support in the South the numbers simply DO NOT stand up.

It goes from Dean-13
Edwards, Lieverman, Sharpton- 8%

Leaving Clark, Kerry, Gep, Kucinich and Carol M-B to divide up the remaining 63 points.

Why doesn't Zogby tell us the numbers for the rest?

If you divide the remaining 63 points evenly among the other 5 candidates you get about 12 points each. NONE of the remaining candidates can have MORE than 12 or they would have TIED Dean's 13.

Furthermore, the way the statement is written Dean-13 FOLLOWED by Edwards, Lieberman, Sharpton-8 means than NONE of the remaining candidates had more than 7!!!

If none of the remaining candidates had more than 7 how can you account for the math?

5 remaining candidates x 7 points only equals 35 and there has to be at least 63 points accounted for.

[KittyWampus]

19. Also, Zogby Essentially Does Push Polls

He started one poll quite a while ago with a question about civil unions.

Just recently he started the poll asking about voting for a Dem candidate who'd been a Republican.

So what were the questions asked this go around?

It is not listed on the page.