is it true that all Democrat primaries are no longer "winner take all?"

[OneBlueSky]

If this is the case, and delegates are apportioned according the percentage of the vote they receive, it will have two (at least) very interesting implications: First, it's likely that no candidate will lock up the nomination early, if at all, and second, we could go into the convention with no candidate having enough delegates to secure the nomination.

This is where it could get REALLY interesting. Most delegates will be EXTREMELY reluctant to switch their votes, particularly to candidates who have bad-mouthed their own during the primaries. The candidates themselves may be equally reluctant to drop out and throw their support to one of their competitors. This could leave the door open for a compromise candidate who did not run in the primaries to emerge as the eventual nominee . . . the first time that has happened in many, many years. The obvious choice would be Al Gore, but he may or may not wish to make the run. Other possibilities include Hillary and . . . who else?

This all assumes that I understand the allocation of delegates correctly. Does anyone know if what I described in the first paragraph above is true or not? Is there a source you can cite? I actually hope it is true, because right now I'm not at all convinced that any of the current pack could beat Bush . . . and that's all I'm concerned about.

[dofus]

1. I believe you're correct

about the proportional delegates, however, you're assuming that none of the candidates will drop out before the convention. The reality is that four or five of them probably will, although those are the four or five least likely to have any delegates (Lieberman, Mosely Braun, Sharpton, and I'll leave it to you to decide who else is most likely to give up).

Money is usually the biggest problem, and candidates who run out of money early on can't keep campaigning, and they're gone. Usually they release their delegates who then can declare themselves for someone else or even go in to the convention uncommitted.

Personally I'd be very surprised if one of the top guys (in alphabetical order Clark, Dean, Edwards, Kerry, and Kucinich) doesn't become the clear leader in delegates very early on, and have the nomination sewn up by mid March.

A brokered convention is the worst possible thing that could happen. To have four or five candidates still fighting for the nomination into July will simply tear the party apart and make coming together behind the nominee simply impossible. Which of course would mean Bush would win quite easily.

Oh, and in my opinion, neither Al Gore nor Hillary Clinton will become the convention's choice at any point.

[mot78]

2. In my opinion, whoever has the plurality of delegates MUST be the nominee

I'm hoping that we'll have a nominee by the day after Super Tuesday.

[OKNancy]

3. That's correct

and it is not something new. It's been that way for a while. The Republicans do a winner take all ( because they aren't very democratic - lol).

Another thing to remember is that a candidate doesn't get any delegates unless they reach the 15% threshold.

[Johnyawl]

4. I believe 1/3 of all the delegates are already apportioned...

...before a vote is cast.

All Representatives, Senators, Governors, state party heads, ex-Presidents, ex-VPs et al, are delegates. I'm not sure who else exactly gets assigned as a delegate, but it comes to about 1/3 of the total. The candidates are competing for the other 2/3.

What this means is that if we get to the convention deadlocked between 2 or 3 candidates, THE PARTY LEADERS get to pick which one of the 2 or 3 candidates they want.

This is one of the reasons that endorsements from office holders are so important. It's not just their support; it's their vote at the convention.

This was changed sometime in the late '80s, if I remember correctly, after the debacle of Dukakis. The Party wanted more control over the process, more imput from office holders as to who was going to lead the party.

This could be the first year since the change were the party leaders have to chose the nominee.