Is Saddam likely to regain power?

[jpgray]

I would think he would be able to regain and control some Sunni areas after our military presence is lessened or removed. Once that happens, could he make a play for the entire country? I didn't want this war, but it would be a sad day for Iraqis if the one good thing this illegal invasion accomplished was wiped clean after we cut and run. What do you think?

[Maple]

1. Yes

it's entirely possible.

It's only a Bush belief that Saddam ever LOST power.

[Minstrel Boy]

2. His odds are improving

I wouldn't yet say likely, but it's increasingly possible. And if the US wants a united, non-theocratic Iraq, it'll likely take someone just like him. An irony many of us anticipated before this whole thing started.

When I hear someone say "At least Saddam is gone," I want to ask "Where did he go?"

[library_max]

3. Well, consider the alternatives.

We could install a puppet dictator like the old Shah of Iran. Iraq could establish an Islamist state like present-day Iran. There could be an anarchy of competing warlords like in pre-invasion Afghanistan (and, increasingly, in post-invasion Afghanistan). Or they could cough up a different military strongman dictator, Saddam II. Any of these look like a big improvement?

It is highly unlikely that we will be able to force western-style democracy down the throats of a people who have no such tradition and no institutions to support it. We would have to completely re-educate at least one whole generation of Iraqis (a generation is 20 years). And even if we had the inclination to make such a commitment, do we have the right to extinguish their culture and replace it with ours?

[jpgray]

5. It could also be like post-Tito Yugoslavia

But yes--I think establishing a US-backed "strong" President (read: dictator) will be the course chosen. And no, most of the options don't look like a big improvement. If Bush is looking to protect the oil, he will have to keep and maintain the US bases and keep a puppet in power.

Democracy is, by definition, the gift you give yourself. That's my take, anyway.

[Yupster]

12. Post 1940 Yugoslavia more like it

in my guess.

I'd think that before we let Saddam come back, we woud do like Hitler did. Arm the Croats and Muslims and tell them to kill as many Serbs as they want to.

We'd arm the Kurds and Shi-is and tell them to take care of the Sunnis. That wouldn't leave much room for Saddam.

[mlawson]

6. Do any relatives of Faisal II survive?

Other than King Abdullah of Jordan. Given the alternatives you've listed above, perhaps restoration of the old monarchy would not be the worst case scenario. At least Faisal didn't force the people into ONE religion...

[Aidoneus]

11. you're kidding, right?

the line of British puppet dictators should stay buried, or there should be another revolution to bury it's rebirth. Do you know what the Hashemites & Nuri al-Said did to rule Iraq for the British? Saddam could've learned everything he knew from them.

[Jacobin]

7. Very practical assessment of the choices available

Geo-political reality, which SmirkCo has fantasized away.

[kentuck]

4. Not unless he changes his name and....

has plastic surgery...

[BonjourUSA]

8. It's very unlikely, but....

... the West searches a clone soon, perhaps yes.

[scisyhp]

9. Saddam is the only legitimate authority most Iraquis would

accept as their ruler. Without him it is either a prolonged US
occupation or total chaos and civil war leading to break-up of
the country. Any non-Baath government with or without US troops
at its disposal will face an ongoing Baath-led insurection. Without
the US troops such government would not last a month. If that happens,
Saddam's return is a certainty. The only way to prevent his return,
other than killing him or staying in Iraq for 10-15 years, is to
somehow negotiate with him for his retirement in exchange for US
leaving the country. But that would still lead to total chaos and
civil war.

[Scott Lee]

10. Not in this world - but Chimpster is seeing to the creation of

an Islamic Republic, or the rise of another military dictator.

"It was less broke before you tried to fix it!" - Pa Kettle

[TomNickell]

13. Not politically possible...

It is not politically possible for any American President to allow S. Hussein back into power. And he ain't no Spring Chicken. He won't be around and vigorous 10 or 15 more years.

American troops may well be forced out, but the likely outcome is civil war, a theocratic dictatorship, or the re-emergence of the Ba'ath party under different leadership.

[NNN0LHI]

14. Forget it. He is busy pumping gas and he is happy

http://www.sltrib.com/2003/Aug/08092003/nation_w/82617.asp

Saddam look-alike gets noticed

By Laurie Goering
Chicago Tribune

AL OUJA, Iraq -- Saddam Hussein, dressed in a greasy blue jumpsuit, spends his afternoons pumping gas at this sleepy village's service station, just south of his hometown of Tikrit.

Or at least that's how it looks to visiting motorists who pull in for a fill-up and quickly do a double take at Muhammad Hussein Daoud, with his unmistakable heavy jowls, bushy mustache and big dark sunglasses.

"All of us around here have one grandfather," an ancestor nine generations back, "so it's inevitable," explains the 64-year-old Saddam look-alike. "My name is similar, and so is my face."

Similar doesn't begin to describe Daoud's resemblance to the missing dictator, a distant cousin who for a time attended the same grade school. Though Daoud was never recruited as one of Saddam's official stand-ins, he could be his double: Same paunch, same bushy salt-and-pepper eyebrows, same lined face and sagging cheeks. All he lacks is a rifle in his raised hand.

Daoud's face has led him into no shortage of adventures over the years, from assassination attempts to mistaken rescues by Iraq's secret service.

more

Muhammad Hussein Daoud, 64, rests at his home in Owja, Iraq. Daoud, who works at a local gas station, said he has been confused with the former Iraqi president for years. He was even questioned by American troops twice outside Tikrit. (Stephanie Sinclair/Chicago Tribune)

[TexasPatriot]

15. i doubt it

who needs Saddam I when you can have the next incarnation.

lets say the US doesnt pull completely. any govt that gets created will cause some of the other players to be upset. They'll blame the US for not getting the version of the govt that they wanted - and lacking any sort of resolution to the arab/israeli conflict (read pipe-dream) all those hatreds will continue to boil up.

it'll get worse, but there wont be an outright civil war until after we leave. That's when we see the real damage Bush* has done to the region. I'm sure the Neocons will blame DemocratX for not making a desert and calling it peace, but it's all going to hell regardless.

You know that point in the tragedy where the main characters are on the verge of discovering that they're in an untenable position... and you watch, and you want some deus ex machina to resolve the situation but you know that's just not how its going to end. That's got to be the whitehouse these days.

The Sunnis via Saddam did have a lot of liquid capital - and with 50% unemployment (and growing) some pretty scary inflation stories, and a country with 400% more debt than its GDP can handle... the argument could be made that Saddam could reemerge - but we'd just assassinate him. Besides, there's going to be a NEW Saddam soon enough. Turtles all the way down.