Lying on the Economy?

[dkamin]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20031117/bs_nm/economy_inventories_dc

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business inventories unexpectedly rose 0.3 percent in September as unsold stocks of autos accumulated at the fastest clip since February, a government report showed on Monday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had been expecting inventories to remain unchanged."

This is the second piece of seriously negative economic news I've seen lately, the other being the down Wal-Mart forecast.

The Bushies have seen fit to lie about pretty much everything else, and I recall seeing some news items about the politicization of economic data, including the Labor figures under Chao.

If consumer sales are decreasing, and indicators are showing they might stay down, I don't understand how employment growth can be as strong as all the pundits are saying and predicting. I'm no economist (Econ. major in college and a few grad classes), but these figures just don't gibe. Am I missing something, or is my wildly partisan premonition (that the Bushies and their lying allies in the media and "academia" if you can call the Heritage Foundation and Cato Institute that are once again lying through their teeth) correct?

[mhr]

1. Analysis Is Right On Target

The one time tax cut to the middle class is spent.

Home refinancing and equity cash-outs are dwindling.

Personal debt is at an all time high.

Personal bankruptcies are at a all time high.

Mortgage foreclosures are at a all time high.

Record deficits will slowly make long-term interest rates rise.

Corporations are investing in overseas plants vs US expansion.

And foreign investors are slowly shifting to the Euro as a safe haven.

It all adds up to a rocky economic picture for the US.

[La_Serpiente]

2. The major fault of the tax cuts

is that personal incomes are not rising as a result of it. There is only disposable income now that they tax cuts have been returned to the tax paying public. What we see here now is that people ARE running out of money and now there will be a glut of products on the market with nobody to buy them.

[Mountainman]

3. The perception theory isn't working either

I remember in econ that if the people's expectation was that the economy would improve, they would act in such a way that would make it improve.

But the administration is trying to make the perception that the ecomomy is impoving but the people have no money to spend so they can't do anything to make it improve.

What is going to slam the door on this administration is it's short term view of everything. They think a $300 tax rebate will buy them complete loyalty but when your personal fortunes aren't improving no amount of perceived good news is going to tell you otherwise.

[Wickerman]

4. I can't source it, but I heard last week

that many retailers are bracing for a dismal holiday season. The tax cuts, as others have stated, are spent. Employment, though purported to be up, is not high wage employment and folks are wallowing in debt. The smart money is fleeing the dollar. Gang, we are screwed.

[dkamin]

5. Not to mention

that Greenspan is considering raising rates because the economy is doing so well (boy that guy's ruined his legacy in OJ-esque proportions).

if rates rise, our economy is going to dog$hit because real estate drops, bankruptcies soar.

[kentuck]

6. This is the story that we must get out. They are lying about the economy.

They hope with all their deficit spending, the economy will recuperate enough to get them thru the next election. After the election, the voters will learn the truth. We have to get this deficit spending under control or the economy will continue to stagnate, they will say. But they will not admit that their taxcuts are the major reason for the deficit spending. Then they will go into their political spin, which is, Congress refuses to "cut" spending.

The same thing happened under Reagan and they just never faced the facts. The huge deficit spending under Reagan did not come home to roost until Poppy Bush was in office. The economy was stagnant to the point that it stunk.

We can anticipate the same economy under Jr that we had under his father. But there is no tech revolution on the horizon to save us this time. The truth will come out, but probably after the election, unless the time frame on this splurge of deficit spending is shorter than the other under Reagan.

[NoKingGeorge]

7. More tax cuts

for the middle class in September. Will be pushed through as an emergency stimulus package, $300 for school clothes. Screw the defecit.What could prevent that?

[dkamin]

8. Toys R Us also down

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/17/news/companies/toysrus.reut/index.htm

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Toys "R" Us Inc., the No. 2 toy retailer behind Wal-Mart Stores Inc., posted a wider third-quarter loss Monday, missing Wall Street estimates because of weak sales at U.S. toy stores and its Kids "R" Us clothing stores.

this WH is like the old Soviet regimes, i don't trust a single report they issue.

i'm bearish.

[oasis]

9. A kick for the lies and the lying liars that tell them.