New NH poll.

[ryharrin]

I searched and couldn't find this posted in GD anywhere. I apologize if I missed it.
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-ny--poll-newhampshire1117nov17,0,5517958.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire
<snip>
The latest poll from Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion found Dean favored by 39 percent of Democrats and independents planning to vote in the Granite State's first-in-the-nation primary. Kerry had support from 23 percent of those polled. The other contenders were all in single digits and 14 percent of the potential voters were undecided.

In a September poll from the Poughkeepsie, N.Y.-based pollsters, Dean led Kerry, 35 percent to 22 percent, with Clark at 11 percent. In the new poll, the former general's support had dropped to 4 percent.

"His campaign is sputtering at this point," said Marist director Lee Miringoff when asked about Clark.

"This has become a two-person race in New Hampshire, subject to what happens in Iowa and in New Hampshire between now and the primary," Miringoff added.

Other recent independent polls have also shown Dean with double-digit leads over Kerry in New Hampshire in the run-up to the Jan. 27 primary.

Among Democrats only, Dean led Kerry, 38 percent to 28 percent, in the new Marist poll. Among independents, Dean led Kerry, 44 percent to 21 percent.

<snip>

I think the last paragraph I quoted is pretty important. Its not a new bit of information, but puts another dagger in the heart of the idea that swing voters hate Dean. Also, Clark's downward swing continues here.

[slinkerwink]

1. I notced that also, but Clark's supposed to go on a huge

media blitz by having "saving private ryan-esque" TV ads. We'll see whether it'll help him get his support up in the polls, but NH voters seem to be primarily concerned with domestic issues, not military issues. So Clark's incessant touting of his military record and not putting forth TV Ads talking about his domestic policy ideas might hurt him.

[Renew Deal]

5. Still focusing on Clark.

I guess Dean has no redeeming value for you to discuss? You just have to keep up the Clark bashing.

[last1standing]

6. That wasn't bashing it was tactics.

Clark is playing a very nonstandard game and it's only right to critique his moves. So long as it's done without overt malice, that is.

[slinkerwink]

7. well, just a couple of days ago, there were huge dean-bashing

threads. I'm only offering appropriate criticism of Clark's overemphasizing NH.

[democratreformed]

11. Personally,

I just don't see how we can "fix" our domestic issues satisfactorily without also/simultaneously "fixing" our military mess. JMO.

[WindRavenX]

2. Eh

I went door to door this week for the campaign. Honestly, most people do NOT know who they're leaning towards. Opinions are likely to change.
If the primary was held today, Kerry would be toast, but I still feel that he's closer than polls indicate.
There's a long way to go, more than enough time for Kerry to right his campaign and take the lead.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. There is a big disconnect here Kerry can tap into

"Most potential New Hampshire Democratic primary voters are more likely to support a candidate who opposed spending $87 billion for U.S. operations in Iraq."

I think if Kerry makes the case of why he voted for IWR and against the 87 billion he can get back a lot of these supporters.
Fortunately there's plenty of time to do so.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/

[WindRavenX]

4. Time is on Kerry's side

But he has got to work damned hard in that time frame.
He can do it.

[last1standing]

8. It's still anyone's game.

I'm rooting for Dean, but once we're down to the general I'll take whoever is running against bush*.

[ryharrin]

9. Same here.

Its just that working for Dean will be much easier than working for any of the other candidates. Both emotionally and logistically.

[ryharrin]

10. An update from the marist webpage.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/
HOW THE DEMOCRATIC FIELD SHAPES UP:
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has a wide lead over his Democratic rivals for the 2004 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary. 44% of likely Democratic primary voters support Dean followed by 23% for Senator John Kerry. The other candidates trail with single digits including retired General Wesley Clark whose support has declined since a similar poll conducted in September.

Looks like Dean is leading 44-23, not 39-23. That's a big jump.

[slinkerwink]

12. yeah it is a huge jump......

we'll see what happens...