The other side of the coin--outside of the south GOP losing strength

[CMT]

Why does the press and pundits only point out that the Democrats are in trouble in the South. There are four regions of the country (well more specific ones but for the purpose of this post I will stick to four regions: East, South, Midwest, and West). Since 1984, The GOP has only one region of the country they can really depend on: the South.

Lets compare the 1976 election with that of 2000 and how the GOP did outside the south.

The East
President Ford the GOP nominee in '76 won
Connecticut
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
New Jersey

GW Bush won the following Eastern states in '00
New Hampshire (and only narrowly)

Prior to '92 the last time New Jersey, Connecticut and Vermont went Democratic was in the Johnson landslide of '64. Maine went Democratic in '68, but probably only because of Ed Muskie's presence on the Dem ticket as VP.

The Midwest:
Ford carried the following states:
Indiana
Michigan
Illinois
Iowa
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas

Bush carried:
Indiana
Ohio
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas

**Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa have not gone GOP for president since '88, prior to '88 the last time Illinois and Iowa voted Democratic for president was in the Johnson landslide of '64.
Wisconsin used to be a classic swing state but voted Republican in '60, '68, '72, '80, and '88.

The West:
In '76 Ford carried every Western state except Hawaii.

In '00 Bush carried:
Idaho
Wyoming
Montana
Colorado
Utah
Arizona
Nevada
Alaska

Prior to '92 the last time the Democrats in 40 years was in the '64 Johnson landslide--same thing with Oregon.

Believe it or not these states either used to be dependable GOP states in presidential races or swing states, but now solidly democratic or lean democratic in presidential elections:

California
New Jersey
Connecticut
Maine
Vermont
Illinois
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
Oregon
Washington

But yet the pundits only stress that the Democrats continue to lose strength in the South--overlooking the fact that the GOP has lost considerable strength in every region of the country outside of the south since the late 80's.

[9119495]

1. Because the South is gaining people, others losing.

But it still is a good post. I believe the next election will see a democratic victory without ANY Southern state--not even FL. Dems will take AZ (technically South, but you know what I mean) and they will probably lose MO. But we will gain WV. That is the victory! Once the our guy is in, we'll start the "stand by our president" in times of war crap down there and we'll begin to take the south back.

[Touchdown]

2. Not the west.

Az, Co, NM, Nv, and Wa are all gaining in population. and...no, Az is not a southern state. Not enough kudzu.;-)

It's amazing while we have all these threads fauning and pontificating all over the south (which is technically the former confederate states) the West (Mtn. states) gets ignored. Nope, flyover territory doesn't matter. We can solidify a NM win, Az is very doable, Nv doesn't want toxic waste in their mountain, and Co is getting more urban by the year. Besides, even most Republicans are environmentalists here. Racial politics rarely (as far as I can remember) play any role here. Try campaigning in the west for a while. Utah, Wy, and Id may be (for now) out of reach, but it can happen.

[Leados]

3. Will the Dems lose Missouri? I think one might be surprised

by what could happen. If the Dems can get the cities (STL and KCMO) to the polls, there's a good chance that the Dems can squeak it out. Its always been Urban vs. Rural in Missouri as far as I've been alive here.

[CMT]

4. Missouri is a classic swing state

Supported Jimmy Carter in '76, Reagan in '80 and '84, only narrowly went to Bush I over Duke in '88 (look at the election results for '88 you would be amazed at how many states Dukakis nearly carried including such GOP states as South Dakota and Montanta), Went to Clinton comfortably in '92 and '96 and only narrowly for Bush II in '00--so yes, Missouri will definitely be a key state for both parties in '04 and I think Dems can win it.