What if the Iraqis elect an Islamic form of government?

[thebaghwan]

Do you think Bush, Cheney and Rumsfield will let that happen?

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

1. Nope!

This is why I've always thought that the admin's standard line, that they want to bring democracy to the region, is a bunch of bullshit. The population of Iraq is 60% Shiite. Believe me, they DON'T want a democracy there.

[bryant69]

5. Well, the solution

would be an Israeli parlimentary system, where both sides get a voice in the government. But, of course, the Shi'ite majority is pushing for more winner take all system. And there is the issue of what to do about freedom of religion.

I'm just saying if Kucinich (or whoever your dream candidate is) were take power tomorrow it would still be difficult.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[Brian Sweat]

6. It's a no win situation.

The only way to win is not to get into the situation in the first place.

[BlackFrancis]

2. at this point maybe..

I really doubt it though.

Most likely in that scenario our new puppet Iraqi military would probably seize power and run the country around the same lines as Saddam did.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

7. Unfortunately

I agree with your assessment 100%. Of course I could be wrong, but let's just say the US hasn't exactly had the most stellar track record "helping" other countries in this regard.

Why do I envision a scenario where we install some stooge regime who we end up having to remove in 20 years?

[MnFats]

3. if they can fix an election here, they can certainly..

...fix an election in Iraq.

Or, alternatively, if the Iraqis elect a rigid Islamic government, they'll claim the ballot boxes were stuffed and invalidate the election; then keep trying until they get the result they want!

[wtmusic]

4. What if they start a nuclear weapons program?

What if they refuse to sell us oil?

What if...

[LoneStarLiberal]

8. Not If, When

If the idea to push elections as fast as the dates being mentioned over the last week, it's not going to be a matter of if they elect an Islamic government, but when.

That being said, we still play ball with Kuwait which has a fairly ineffectual but popular Islamist movement in country that routinely wins respectable election to their majlis (parliament).

Simply because they might form an Islamic Republic doesn't necessarily mean they would be hostile to us.

Then again Kuwait doesn't have the same demographic and geographic nightmare that Iraq has...

It's a matter of if, not a matter of when.

[Walt Starr]

9. It won't happen

I'm sure Diebold already has a no-bid contract to provide voting machines.

[Scott Lee]

10. Bush lies. The last thing they want in the M.E. is democracy

Democracy would mean they choose an Islamic government, probably based upon Shari'a Law, in most places - and an overthrow of the dirty rotten royal families in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and of the emirs in Qatar, Bahrain and United Arab Emirates.

That would mean LESS control over the oil, end game.

[chaumont58]

11. Eventually it will happen, the chimp can't stop it, forever

Atrios' blog spot pointed to some other bloggers on the subject of Iraq's future. Its seems to me that it is inevitable that Iraq will split into three countries: the Islamic Republic of Kurdistan, the Islamic Republic of Sunnistan and the Islamic Republic of Shiastan. It it does happen, it can't be good news for the region. what would Turkey do with a Kurdish nation on the border of its own Kurdish minority. How will Iran view the new nations? Will it want to incorporate one into a rejuvinated Persian Empire? What pressure would be put on Saudi Arabia to become more of a militant Islam nation?
I think the Bushies have stepped in merde, and the world is going to pay.
Ain't it great having the grownups back in charge!