NH poll on who can beat Bush*

[Renew Deal]

Dean 37 (38)
Kerry 21 (16)
Clark 8 (5)
Not Sure 21 (27)
Gephardt 6 (4)
Edwards 3 (5)
...........


http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/2643335/detail.html

DURHAM, N.H. -- More New Hampshire voters think former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean can defeat President George W. Bush than any other candidate.

In a poll of likely Democratic primary voters, 37 percent said they believe Dean is the most likely candidate to defeat Bush. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry was second, with 21 percent saying he's the biggest threat.

The poll of 446 voters was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and sponsored by WMUR-TV. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent.

After the two leaders, the other Democratic candidates didn't fare so well, with 8 percent naming retired Gen. Wesley Clark, 6 percent naming Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, 3 percent naming North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, 2 percent naming Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and 3 percent naming other candidates.

Twenty percent said they didn't know who would have the best shot of defeating Bush.

<snip>

http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/2643335/detail.html

[LSdemocrat]

1. I wouldn't really characterize a 2-3 point change as a surge or plummet

Although I think New Hampshire is down to just Dean and Kerry.

[Renew Deal]

4. ...

[unfrigginreal]

2. HaHa! Nice spin there.

You do realize that this is the same poll with a different question don't you?

[Renew Deal]

3. OK, I am going to the corner.

:dunce:

[unfrigginreal]

7. Here's a link

The poll was released Friday on the horserace.

http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/2638619/detail.html

I believe what you are citing is a question on that poll of who is the best candidate to take on Bush.

[AP]

5. This isn't a "who would you vote for" poll. It's asking who you think

has the best chance to defeat Bush.

So, I'm not sure what the word "plummeting" is describing.

I didn't read the full article, but are they comparing earlier results for the same poll quesiont. Or are they misleadingly comparing this poll quesiton to earlier polls of a different question -- who would you vote for?

Obviously a "who do you think will win" is going to help the person with the best results in the 'who'd you vote for" poll and hurt people who aren't doing well. Only a fool who supports Edwards in NH would say he has the best chance of beating Bush in NH if he or she knows that Edwards is only getting 9 or 10 percent in the other poll. And anyone paying attention would answer that the current favorite has the best chance.

This poll is designed to get a good result for the leaders and hurst the trailers.

[Renew Deal]

6. You are right.

I misinterpreted it.

[jeter]

8. This is the third poll on NH I have seen today

All have Dean ahead. All, except this one, has Dean increasing his lead to close to 20%.

Marist was one of them. I think the other was a CNN poll.