will the exit polling for 2004 be the same as 2000?

[Blue_Roses]

Hopefully NOT, but I don't see where much has changed. One thing is for sure..it shows where we need to work the hardest.



http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/epolls/US/P000.html#top

Race by Sex
All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader
White Males 48 % 36 % 60 % 0 % 3 %
White Females 52 % 48 % 49 % 0 % 2 %


Vote by Race
All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader
White 81 % 42 % 54 % 0 % 3 %
African-American 10 % 90 % 9 % 0 % 1 %
Hispanic 7 % 62 % 35 % 1 % 2 %
Asian 2 % 55 % 41 % 1 % 3 %
Other 1 % 55 % 39 % 0 % 4 %


Vote by Age
All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader
18-29 17 % 48 % 46 % 1 % 5 %
30-44 33 % 48 % 49 % 0 % 2 %
45-59 28 % 48 % 49 % 1 % 2 %
60 or Older 22 % 51 % 47 % 0 % 2 %


Vote by Age
All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader
18-64 86 % 48 % 48 % 0 % 3 %
65 and Older 14 % 50 % 47 % 0 % 2 %


--continued--

[ShimokitaJer]

1. Of course it won't

Demographics aside, do you really think those who voted for Gore in 2000 will vote for Bush? Do you think the 20% of Democrats who voted for Bush in 2000 will do so again? Do you think the 49% of white women who voted for Bush will do so again after enacting the only abortion ban since Roe v. Wade? Do you think those Republicans who bought the whole "compassionate conservative with responsible spending and no nation-building" Bush package will buy into that again?

How can you say nothing has changed?

[mrgorth]

5. do you really think those who voted for Gore in 2000 will vote for Bush?

We will lose some of the Gore vote. Many moderate (esp white male) dems have turned into hawks as a result of 9/11. We ARE going to lose them unless Joe gets the nom.

[ShimokitaJer]

6. I beg to differ

If this were a year ago, I might buy into the idea that some former Gore supporters would now throw their support behind Bush because of his agressive war on terror. But I don't see how that could be true now that the war in Iraq has turned into a quagmire and Bush's actions have been shown to make us more rather than less vulnerable to terrorist attack. Bush's cutting of funding for the military and for first responders back home has not gone unnoticed.

And you think nominating Lieberman is the way to go? :wtf:

[Blue_Roses]

7. get real

the conservatives who support late-term abortion ban will be cheering all the way the polls. As far as where this will play out with pro-choice supporters, I'm sure they will be there too. It's just a matter of WHO will have the bigger turn-out.

As far as "demographics" you can't put that aside. Obviously, by these polls it clearly shows that "demographics" play a huge roll in who shows up for election day.

do you really think those who voted for Gore in 2000 will vote for Bush? no and that wasn't my point in showing the polling.

Do you think those Republicans who bought the whole "compassionate conservative with responsible spending and no nation-building" Bush package will buy into that again? Ah, yes, I do. He's already working on that with his continual lies.

How can you say nothing has changed? You're right. Alot has changed since 9-11, and as we all know, not for the better.

[ACK]

2. Its the 18 to 29 vote that bugs the crap out of me

God, the whole age gap and the fact that 20 somethings vote conservative so much is irritating as hell. It is time to appeal to the youth of America not talk down to them.

Say no to Holy Joe and reach out to the younger voters for goodness sakes.

We got to get that young vote up above 50%.

Aaargh!!

[bryant69]

3. There was an article a couple of months ago

on how the conservatives are the rebels. Somehow they've managed to convince a lot of the younger people that the absurditys of speech codes are a bigger problem than, say, they Iraq situation. Not hard to do, since for the moment the speech codes impact college studen's lifes and Iraq doesn't. It's hard to get anybody to look past their personal experience.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[ShimokitaJer]

4. Agreed... but that "Rock the Vote" fiasco is no way to go

I don't know whose bright idea that was: "appeal to young voters by planting inane questions about vapid topics -- that's what they like, isn't it?"

[ACK]

8. The nominee should go on MTV and ...

do something fun and silly.

You know what I mean here people.

Come on, it would be out of SNL skit to have the Dem nominee do a play by play analysis of a real world episode as it related to world politics or Road rules for god's sakes.

Maybe they could VJ the alt/cool late night show (use to be 120 minutes have no idea now).

Anything is better than that vapid scripted questions debate right?

Maybe they could pick their favorite rock-n-roll movie and add commentary.

Just trying to think out of the box on this one.

[ShimokitaJer]

12. These kind of silly stunts are counterproductive

It's not the case that the youth aren't voting because the candidates and positions just aren't fun enough. They aren't voting because they don't feel that their concerns are being heard, and they therefore assume that voting will not make a difference. Encouraging politicians to play games to appeal to the youth vote will just reinforce the image that they are out of touch.

The conservatives get their youth vote the way they get all their votes -- they appeal to the base instincts of the voters: their fears, their biases, etc. The way to counter this is to appeal to youth voters the way you should be appealing to all voters -- by addressing the issues they care about. Will there continue to be funding for education? Will the job market improve? Will Bush institute a draft if reelected? Ask college students what they are worried about and address that. Don't go on SNL and tell them what you think they should be worried about.

[radwriter0555]

9. No. VNS is disbanded and out of business. There is no longer an exit

polling co doing this.

[Blue_Roses]

10. I know

and it's scary to think no tracking of any data. Just trying to use this as a tool to work from and see how AND where we can change things.

[Bandit]

11. Can't have any "accurate" accounting of the votes now could we?

Of course they were put out of business. They reflect reality wereas that isn't allowed in this new age. It's what happens when we allow them to burn down the bridge to twenty-first century.