CATO: Why a DRAFT needed to keep Iraq: 240,000 + TROOPS NEEDED!

[Dems Will Win]

"The closest parallel to the Iraq situation is the British in Northern Ireland, where you also had some people supporting the occupying army and some opposing them, and where the opponents were willing to resort to terror tactics," says Charles Peña, director of defense studies at the libertarian Cato Institute. "There the British needed a ratio of 10 soldiers per 1,000 population to restore order, and at their height, it was 20 soldiers per 1,000 population. If you transfer that to Iraq, it would mean you'd need at least 240,000 troops and maybe as many as 480,000.

"The only reason you aren't hearing these kinds of numbers discussed by the White House and the Defense Department right now," Peña adds, "is that you couldn't come up with them without a return to the draft, and they don't want to talk about that."

The Pentagon has already had to double the deployment periods of some units, call up more reserves and extend tours of duty by a year -- all highly unpopular moves. Meanwhile, the recent spate of deadly bombings in Baghdad, Falluja and other cities, and increasing attacks on U.S. forces throughout Iraq have forced the U.S. to reconsider its plans to reduce troop deployments.

Those factors -- combined with the stress and grind of war itself -- clearly have diminished troop morale. And many in the National Guard and reserves never anticipated having to serve in an active war zone, far from their families and jobs, for six months or longer. Stars and Stripes, the Army's official paper, reports that a poll it conducted found that half the soldiers in Iraq say they are "not likely" or are "very unlikely" to reenlist -- a very high figure.

Consider that the total enlistment goal for active Army and Army reserves in the fiscal year ended Oct. 1 was 100,000. If half of the 140,000 troops currently in Iraq were to go home and stay, two-thirds of this year's recruits would be needed to replace them. And that does not take into consideration military needs at home and around the globe.

"My sense is that there is a lot of nervousness about the enlistment numbers as Iraq drags on," says Doug Bandow, another military manpower expert at Cato. "We're still early enough into it that the full impact on recruiting/retention hasn't been felt."

http://fairuse.1accesshost.com/news1/salon1.html

[Racenut20]

1. In Vietnam, it was

50 thousand, then 125 thousand, then 250 thousand. etc I think I was number 576,000 to get there, or something like that. Plus putting over 1,000,000 ARVN and home guards on the ground.

AND the point to this story ??????? We lost !!!!!

[Jacobin]

7. Precisely. More troops is no solution.

Just means more targets to shoot at and more animosity and more abuse of Iraqi citizens.

We are fucked. This thing is spinning out of control and will get worse whether we stay or go.

[The Backlash Cometh]

2. Cato is a self-serving Libertarian think-tank.

They don't believe in government meddling with personal lives, but I guess those principles don't apply to military take-overs. In addition, Iraq is in no way related to the U.S. in any way imaginable as Northern Ireland is to England.

Time for them to clean their thinking caps.

[Dems Will Win]

3. SSS Draft Activation Readiness Plan $28 MILLION FOR JUNE 2005 DRAFT!!!!!!!

http://www.sss.gov/perfplan_fy2004.html

This FY 2004 APP identifies the activities and strategies that will take place during the
fiscal year to achieve Agency goals and objectives. It also identifies relevant performance
measurement target goals to be achieved. The performance goals for FY 2004 are:

1. Develop an Area Office Prototype Exercise that will test the Health
Care Personnel Delivery System (HCPDS) work flows and support
programs.

2. Redefine Agency infrastructure based on a Quinquennial Workload
Study.

3. Prepare and conduct an Area Office Prototype Exercise which tests
the activation process from SSS Lottery input to the issuance of the
first Armed Forces Examination Orders.

4. Ensure 90% of people tested are capable of implementing activation
procedures.

5. Ensure that 95% of the predefined readiness objectives are attained
and validated during an Area Office Prototype Exercise.

6. Train 90% of assigned State Directors (SDs) and Reserve Force
Officers (RFOs) on HCPDS and Timed-Phased Response (TPR)
functions and responsibilities.

7. Attain a 92% or greater compliance rate for men 18 through 25 years
old.

8. Attain and appoint Registrars in 85% of the Nation’s high schools.

9. Obtain 75% of all registrations electronically.

10. Maintain an average systems change request implementation time of
39 days.

11. Maintain a functional proponent and customer satisfaction level of
87%.

12. Have a telephone call completion rate of 93% or higher.

13. Answer correspondence in less than 10 days.

14. Train 90% of assigned SDs and RFOs on Alternative Service plans
and procedures.

ANNUAL PERFORMANCE REPORT

An annual report providing the results of the implementation of these performance
measures will be submitted by March 31, 2005. This report will address attained versus
planned levels of performance, explain unattained target levels, and identify where and
how strategies, performance goals, and performance indicators should be changed to
ensure that the SSS reaches its strategic and annual goals and objectives.

VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

A variety of methodologies and techniques will be employed to verify and validate the
Agency performance indicators associated with each of the goals and objectives identified
in this plan. The verification and validation will be conducted by SSS employees using
data generated by internal systems.

RELATIONSHIP TO THE BUDGET

The SSS has not completed installation of all the systems that will fully capture budgeted
costs associated with its performance goals as identified in its APP. SSS has identified the
necessary data collection objectives and developed a methodology for its collection.
Based on the data collection plan, as implemented during FY 2003, the Agency will align
its FY 2004 Budget Estimate and Budget Justification funding stream to coincide with its
goals delineated in its FY 2004 APP. This system is designed to capture and record at the
lowest practical level, all costs incurred by performance goals. It will reflect true costs
associated with the attainment of each annual performance goal.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Strategic Goal 1: Increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the Manpower
Delivery Systems (Projected allocation for FY 2004 – $7,942,000)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Strategic Objective 1.1: Within current legislative guidance, enhance the Agency’s ability
to respond flexibly to a DoD request for health care personnel using the Agency’s HCPDS.

How success will be measured:

The Agency’s HCPDS Manual meets or exceeds the predetermined user satisfaction rating.

Integrate DoD manpower requirements and other relevant
requirements into the HCPDS Program to better meet expansion and manpower delivery requirements.

Complete 90% of project tasks in accordance with project milestones.

By 2004, 90% of the Agency’s assigned SDs and RFOs are capable of implementing the policies and procedures contained in the HCPDS Manual.

Obtain maximum participation in a full-scale readiness exercise with at least 90% of the Agency’s participating units achieving satisfactory performance evaluations.

FY 1999 Annual Performance Goal:

Achieve 90% of predetermined FY 1999 exercise objectives and
standards.

Results: Ninety percent achieved.

FY 2000 Annual Performance Goal:

Train 90% of SDs and RFOs on HCPDS plans, policies, and
procedures.

Results: Ninety-eight percent of SDs and 95% of RFOs completed training.

FY 2001 Annual Performance Goal:

Update and maintain the HCPDS Manual.

Results: The current HCPDS is up-to-date. An HCPDS index was created, printed, and delivered to the field.

FY 2002 Annual Performance Goal:

Update and maintain the Agency’s HCPDS Manual.

Results: The HCPDS Guide has been reviewed and
updated.

FY 2003 Annual Performance Goal:

Update and maintain the Agency’s HCPDS Manual.

FY 2004 Annual Performance Goal:

Develop an Area Office Prototype Exercise which will test the HCPDS
work flows and its automated support programs.

Baseline:

The results of the FY 1999 Readiness Exercise (REX) established a
baseline of 90%.

Strategies:

SSS staff meets with DoD to assess HCPDS requirements.

Continue to develop and maintain contacts within Department of
Defense, Department of Veterans Affairs, Federal Emergency
Management Agency, American Medical Association, and other
organizations involved with national health care programs.
FY 2001-2006.

Redesign HCPDS software. FY 2001-2003.

Update/improve the HCPDS Manual. FY 2001-2003.

Update the HCPDS Guide. FY 2001 and 2003.

Update the HCPDS based upon FY 1999 exercise results; FY 1999 test results, policy, and procedural changes. FY 2001-2003.

Develop an Area Office Prototype Exercise which will test the HCPDS work flows and its automated support programs. FY 2004.

Prepare, conduct, and evaluate an Area Office Prototype Exercise for health care in FY 2005.

Strategic Objective 1.2: Ensure a mobilization infrastructure of 56 State Headquarters,
442 Area Offices and 1,980 Local Boards are operational within 75 days of an authorized
return to conscription.

[cprise]

4. Here is evidence that Libertarians have an Imperialist streak

As long as the opression (sorry, "occupation") is an external matter, they actually prefer military solutions.

Anyway, these people "speak" with their money, and this is what their money has been saying.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

5. Does Dean support CATO on this as well?

Dean sure supported CATO on NAFTA, GATT, "free trade" in general, and cutting social services in the name of "fiscal conservatism". Dean wants us to "stay the course" in Iraq, and not "cut and run" - so is Dean willing to support a draft too, along with his benefactors at the CATO institute?

[Dems Will Win]

6. Dean is saying other countries and the UN should come in,

and that would keep the US troops low. His election would also pump up re-enlistment rates and recruitment rates and preserve the Volunteer Forces!

Bush will never get the UN to help, but the UN would love Dr. Dean and do whatever he asked. It would be a horse of a totally different color!!

[Liberal Classic]

8. Dave Lindorff quotes Doug Bandow but

I do not think that means Bandow necessarily advocates the draft in this article.

I think what he is saying is that pentagon estimates of troop strength and the need for replacements are underestimated.


"My sense is that there is a lot of nervousness about the enlistment numbers as Iraq drags on," says Doug Bandow, another military manpower expert at Cato. "We're still early enough into it that the full impact on recruiting/retention hasn't been felt."

The Pentagon, perhaps predictably, sees a more hopeful picture.

Curtis Gilroy, director of accession policy at the Department of Defense, concedes that troop morale is hurting. "There are certainly concerns about future reenlistments. Iraq is not a happy place to be," Gilroy says. " I think a certain amount of that is just grumbling. What we're interested in is not what people are saying, but what they do." So far, he reports, reenlistments and new enlistments remain on target.

and later on...

Even among those who think the public might support a draft, like Bandow at the Cato Institute, few believe Bush would dare to propose it before the November 2004 election. "No one would want that fight," he explains. "It would highlight the cost of an imperial foreign policy, add an incendiary issue to the already emotional protests, and further split the limited-government conservatives."

Bandow believes the public might support a draft, which would highlight the cost of an imperial foreign policy. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the draft.

[jpgray]

9. LOL, their description of Northern Ireland is hilarious

"where the opponents were willing to resort to terror tactics" Ah, so no Protestant groups ever killed Catholics in a terrorist fashion? The ignorance of these people is so palpable.

[oasis]

10. CATO members have financial interests worldwide. They must be protected.

:mad:

[Dems Will Win]

11. Will these draft threads never end?

Hopefully not. That means I'm dead.