Clark gaining in latest Gallup poll !!

[Donny247]

Clark has been gaining ground in the latest Gallup polls and is now tied with Dean at 17%. This is right after the NBC/WSJ poll which shows Clark ahead of Dean 17% to 15% and the latest Newsweek poll showing Clark only 1% behind Dean at 16%. In all cases, he's moving up in the polls after an early drop.

The media couldn't stop Clinton and they can't stop Clark. He's just too appealing a candidate.

www.pollingreport.com

[Democrats unite]

1. And he happens to know which flag to wave

Go Clark!!!

[_NorCal_D_]

59. LOL

Good point!

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

74. right flag, which side?

Is Clark a populist statesman or a "responsible" politician?

[quinnox]

2. This is surprising

According to the data, Dean actually lost ground to Clark since the last one, 3 points in total.

After all the hoopla of Dean's union endorsements, you would have expected Dean to gain ground.

[Kahuna]

23. Yep! The pundits will be very chagrined to explain...

this trend if it continues.

[59millionmorons]

32. Endorsements are over rated

Knowbody votes for a candidate just because someone endorsed them.

[Spazito]

3. That's great news!

I was hoping that would happen!

[in_cog_ni_to]

4. Hang On!

Here we go! It's gonna be fun! :bounce: Go Wes!

[Renew Deal]

5. Edwards drop is the other theme.

Does anyone know why this is happening. The bottom is falling out on him in these polls for over a week. Anyone know why?

[SahaleArm]

20. He's holding on at a floor/ceiling of 6%.

Since 10/10/03.

[Renew Deal]

41. You are right

I have seen from 4-7. Lately there is a down trend.

[Julien Sorel]

75. I really thought after he humbled Dean in the debate

over the CF issue that he'd experience a bump. I have to admit that Edwards' lackluster showing to date is baffling, kind of like Kucinich's. Edwards has spent a fair amount of money, and he fits the mold of someone who could do well. On the other hand, Kerry is also struggling, relatively speaking, and we saw what happened to Graham, who I thought was another potentially first-rate candidate who never got any traction. Lieberman is sliding down the tubes, and I think he's actually running a competent, if old-style, campaign. Maybe it's a backlash against 'Washington insiders' or something.

[MIMStigator]

6. Juggernaut n/t

n/t

[Larkspur]

7. Gee, I thought that Clark had once led in the Gallop poll

like right after he announced he was running for the Dem Prez nomination?

He may be making up some ground, but he's losing New Hampshire badly and wrote off Iowa. Voters who pay attention to candidates, like in those 2 states, are usually a better barometer of a candidate's viablity than a nation poll, which is a poll based on name recognition.

[returnable]

8. Gee, speaking of barometers...

...how's Dean doing in South Carolina? :hi:

[slinkerwink]

17. why, Dean's doing great in North Carolina!

;-)

[Renew Deal]

9. NH and IA were critical to Presidents Tsongas, Harkin, Gephardt....

McCain, Buchanan. OK sure

[Mz Pip]

16. Snarf!

Snicker, snicker, snarf!

MzPip
:dem:

[TLM]

31. The point is if Clark is doing so great...

Why is he pulling out of primaries because they're afraid of the effect of a 4th or 5th place finish? Should be a walk in the park if he really has the support you claim... but because Clark has always only been hype, the real solid support just isn't there in NH or Iowa.

Seems to me that if Clark was doing as well as his boosters say, he wouldn't be running away from Iowa and NH. Seems the only sates where Clark is doing well are states where the dems are not really campaigning yet.


Real easy to look like a winner when you avoid any contest you might lose.

[Renew Deal]

34. He has pulled out of 1.

How do you figure he is pulling out of NH if he is going to spend half his time and over $1,000,000 there? Does not compute. Besides that, ever heard "Fight 'em where they ain't." Why should Clark get into an expensive and time consuming slap fight for little gain in Iowa? I want to see Dean go campaign in Alabama where the primary is in June and the electorate is not democratic.

[Rowdyboy]

42. Bet you don't get an answer to your question

I've seen the crack about Clark pulling out of NH several times and its a blatent lie. No ifs, ands or buts, its a bald-faced lie.

[TLM]

43. I thought they were also withdrawing efforts in NH as well....

since they were pulling out of the races where Clark is doing so poorly to avoid the sting of a bad finish.

"How do you figure he is pulling out of NH if he is going to spend half his time and over $1,000,000 there?"

Jesus how can you say that Clark is doing well if he has put that much into NH with nothing to show for it?


"Does not compute. Besides that, ever heard "Fight 'em where they ain't.""

Yeah like CLark's bomb um where they ain't strategy in Kosovo that killed 1500 civilians and injured 10,000 more, while leaving serb forces almost untouched.


" Why should Clark get into an expensive and time consuming slap fight for little gain in Iowa? "

Because it is a key primary state. If Clark is just going to write if off because he can't win without a hard fight, that tells me a lot about Clark.


"I want to see Dean go campaign in Alabama where the primary is in June and the electorate is not democratic."

He will. However it bothers me that in strong democratic states, Clark is doing very poorly, and his those southern states where as you say the electorate is not democratic, that's where Clark has a better showing.

Guess they know a republican when they see him.

[dobak]

57. He is -going- to spend around $1 million in NH

He hasn't spent much there yet and is still doing okay

On Iowa, he had no chance with a late start. Iowa requires far too much time and money to get organized. I think he will still manage to pull out a 3-4 place finish in Iowa though.

[WillyBrandt]

62. Clark is fighting in New Hampshire

But he's not in Iowa. So what the hell are you talking about

'"I want to see Dean go campaign in Alabama where the primary is in June and the electorate is not democratic."

'He will. However it bothers me that in strong democratic states, Clark is doing very poorly, and his those southern states where as you say the electorate is not democratic, that's where Clark has a better showing.

'Guess they know a republican when they see him.'

This is such a foul thing to say. A HUGE percentage of Dems in Southern states are African Americans, and they in large part decide the primaries. I suppose they aren't real Democrats because they don't live in Blue States, huh?

[Barbara917]

82. Pulling out of primaries? Re-check your facts.

Clark is not participating in the Iowa CAUCUS because of his late entry into the race. Just as Clinton did in 1992. From a practical stand point it makes sense to campaign in many states rather than spend all one's time in one state. He is not pulling out of the New Hampshire primary and has no plans to. He is spending 3 days/week there and just now launching 1.1 million television commercial campaign there. That is not pulling out.

[Kahuna]

25. He debuted at 22%. Then he went down to about 12%. Now..

he is regaining the ground he lost after Howard Dean's barrage of 'Wes is a Republican in Dem's clothing' attacjs. Bwaaa ha ha ha!

[jmaier]

33. Value of National Polls

Actually, I've read in several places (not a Clark blog) that the last national poll prior to the caucus vote in Iowa is a better predictor than the outcome in either Iowa or N.H. which, you no doubt, recall Bill Clinton lost decisively in '92.

I'm going to go look for a link to back up what my memory is serving. I don't want to be inaccurate.

[newyawker99]

56. Hi jmaier!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[_Jumper_]

61. Clark is well behind the other major candidates in name ID

;)

[Barbara917]

81. And we know Iowa and New Hampshire select the Dem candidate....

....as they did in 1992 for Clinton?

Looking at a few more state polls than Iowa and New Hampshire will find that Clark leads or is tied in many of them.

[DemExpat]

10. He's taking off now......

I pray for the wind to be in his sails all the way to the top.

:kick:

DemEx

[AmericanDem]

11. it will all get much better

things are just now coming together. much more too come

[Kahuna]

26. Clark is "likeable." He only has to sell himself as...

trustworthy. I have maintained that people like him and are just looking for a reason to support him. The more they get to know him, the more they will trust him. The more they trust him, the more his support will increase.

[TLM]

36. Sorry but I liked Clark at first... then I got to know him.

The more I learn about his actions in Kosovo, his fundraising for republicans, his praise or Bush I and Reagan as great leaders, his working as a lobbyist for defense contractors, and his support for the IWR... the less I trust him.

[BootinUp]

69. That makes a lot of sense!

His actions in Kosovo...you mean serving his country and helping to end the attrocities of ethnic cleansing?

Fundraising for Republicans...you mean the ones he voted against?

lobbyist for defense contactors...Spell it out, he lobbied for a company that developed computer software that was used for national security. OOOOOOHHHNOOO! Please state how that makes him evil.

He never supported the IWR.


So what other problems you got?

[Julien Sorel]

71. Translation:

The more he threatens Howard Dean, the more lies and half-truths you make up about him. I congratulate you, though, on finally abandoning the CSIS smear -- that one was beginning to be an out-and-out embarrassment to you: even I felt pity for you at the end there.

[billbuckhead]

78. Dean the hero of the NRA, Cato Institute and the Confederate flag wavers

Talk about someone liberals can't trust.

[HFishbine]

12. I hate to break it to you folks

But everybody has flatlined.

The margin of error on this poll is +/- 5%. For the past eight weeks, no candidate has moved up or down more than the margin of error. Neither have the undecideds. There's no trend here. Not yet.

[Tom Rinaldo]

13. The point, I believe, is

Clark is not fading, which has been the pundit mantra from the day he declared on. At first they called him the "flavor of the month" candidate. There were constant predictions that his support would fall to single digits within a month. Then came all of the "Clark is deflating" commentary. Then came the deep freeze, lets talk about everyone else "Hey, how about that Gephardt" nonsense even when Clark's numbers nationally consistently kept him clustered at the top of the pack. Many in the national media attempted a self fullfilling prophesy with Clark; dismiss him and he will fall. While other candidates were given coverage for their positions and potential appeal, Clark got covered if at all for whatever campaign weakness could be dredged up against him. I don't think all of it was a media conspiracy (but in some cases I think it was). Still the media acts like a mob frequently, recycling the same old spin endlessly.

The truth was Clark's campaign needed some time to jell and it is jelling and the first primary is still months away. His momentum is starting to build and soon the media will be forced to talk about it.

[AmericanDem]

14. yes, very true

you spelled out in detail exactly what is going on. good job!

[moz4prez]

15. not so much a media conspiracy

but they DO conspire against the weak

[HFishbine]

19. Yes and No

Well, you are correct that nationally, Clark is not fading. But there is nothing to indicate either that his "momentum is building."

[Tatiana]

29. YES!

Excellent points!

[TLM]

44. Going from 22% to 12% is fading...

sorry, spin it any way you want, but Clark was and still is a flash in the pan. He's all hype and when folks look at what is behind the hype, they find a man who was a lobbyist for defense contractors, who heaped praise on Bush, who said Reagan and Bush I were great leaders, and who said it was OK to murder journalists in war time.


Clark is not a democrat and he is not a liberal... he is a fraud.

[Renew Deal]

65. What gives you the right?

to say he is not a democrat. He will support the nominee. Will you?

[slinkerwink]

18. that's true....no one's really broken from the pack yet....

so hold those balloons down yet...

[AmericanDem]

24. Wow, you are 1 worried soul arent you

Alot of the posts I see by you are in subject lines, that in one form or another show Clark in a good light. Your typical reply is one of trying to hold back the momentum you feel growing in his following.

As futile as that may be, at least you feel for what your doing. Best of luck to ya.

[slinkerwink]

30. Best of luck to ya too....

when Dean gets the nomination.

[AmericanDem]

35. your confused

perhaps Clark will consider Dean for VP, when he's nominated.

[slinkerwink]

38. nah, I think you're confused also....

thank goodness Dean's a doctor to help cure that confusion when he gets the nomination...

[sangh0]

52. Confused?

Maybe that explains why you posted

"no one's really broken from the pack yet"

AND

"thank goodness Dean's a doctor to help cure that confusion when he gets the nomination"

[TLM]

47. Not in terms of national name polls... but if you look at other factors

like support numbers and fundraising numbers... Dean left the pack behind long ago.

The fact is that most of the CLark folks are so hard up for some good news that they are fliping cartwheels over national polls where Clark's movement is limited to the margin of error.

By all other measures, Clark is going down in flames. He's had to pull out of Iowa, he's losing hard in NH, and he's been blown out of the water by Dean and Kerry in terms of fundraising, even though Clark ditched a debate to attend a big doner fundraiser. He also lost the support of the unions to Dean. Clark's insider campaign staff and the draft clark folks are at odds with each other.

[Kahuna]

22. WRONGO! Clark has regained substantial ground with Gallup..,.

We compare apples with apples and oranges with oranges. The last Gallup poll showed a substantial decline for Clark. This is great news for Team Clark. There is nothing you can do to dampen our spirits. So why don't you save yourself the effort.

[HFishbine]

40. Wake Up

Here's a novel idea. Why don't we look at the facts before we make unfounded assertions? Clark did not suffer a "substantial decline" in the last Gallup poll. It was a 1% decline, from 15% to 14%. Next time, get your facts straight.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[Kahuna]

79. Hey Genuis! From 22% to 14 % is a substantial drop...

in anybody's book!

[HFishbine]

80. Right-O Buckaroo

22% to 14% in the last poll? I guess you are counting on people not clicking through to the data to see the degree to which you will go to spread disinformation. Good luck on that credibility thing.

[elperromagico]

21. Looking at the other polls

It appears that our candidates' numbers against Bush are growing (as they gain recognition), while Bush's numbers are dropping or flatlining.

This is certainly encouraging, but when one of our Dem hopefuls breaks 50% (or when two or three of them break 50%), I'll really start getting excited. It appears as though, barring some major fuck-up on the part of our frontrunners or some major success on Bush's part, at least one candidate will break 50% soon.

[SahaleArm]

27. Can't name a candidate - 45%

Ouch, name recognition is still a factor with Howard Dean on top.

CBS News Poll. Nov. 10-13, 2003. N=376 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide.

"From what you have heard or read, can you name any of the candidates running for the 2004 Democratic nomination for president?" If “Yes”: "Who is the first one who comes to mind?"

Yes, can name a candidate 55%
No, can't name a candidate 45%

Howard Dean 21%
Wesley Clark 9%
John Kerry 9%
Richard Gephardt 4%
Joe Lieberman 2%
John Edwards 2%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
Al Sharpton 2%
Carol Moseley Braun 1%
Hillary Clinton 1% :wft:
Other 2%

[moz4prez]

37. can we couple the recognition #s

with the approval ratings? That way we can see who's really finding common ground w/ the voters. for example if Dean's recognition #s were as they are (21%) and he had a 20% approval rating. that would be a positive sign for his campaign. or if Clark had an 8% approval rating, with 9% recognition.

[unfrigginreal]

28. It's hard to see how he'll keep up the momentum

Yeah, he's had a bump but he's in the middle of "media blitz #2." As we draw closer to Iowa and New Hampshire, the media will turn it's attention back to the frontrunners of those primaries. Or, as a Clarkie would say, Rove will force the media to ignore their candidate.

His new ad will not do him any favors by the way, unless you buy into the theory that a military uniform is all we need to beat Bush.

[slinkerwink]

39. what about Clarkites claiming that SC is the be-all and the end-all?

[unfrigginreal]

45. They put that out at their own peril n/t

[TLM]

49. What else have they got.... SC is the only state so far where Clark

isn't being beaten like a Rodney King.

[unfrigginreal]

50. I think that Arizona is going to be a better barometer

Dean and Clark are both running strong there and if Clark can pull out the win, he gains some traction. If Dean beats him there, then it's hard to see where Clark starts to trip him up. Plus Clark needs a strong showing in SC while Dean doesn't.

[slinkerwink]

yeah, that's true....

besides, the Iowa and NH primaries are front-loaded to give whoever wins there media coverage, and undecided voters in later primaries are more likely to go with the front-runner of those two primaries.

[OKNancy]

54. New Hampshire = 33 delegates

South Carolina = 59 delegates
Oklahoma = 60
Arizona = 63

[neuvocat]

48. Like who?

Got any quotes? Any links to quotes?

[AmericanDem]

58. a bump? LOL

He just getting his legs under him. You see while your buddy Dean was out there almost a year ago Clark came into the race ummm 2 months ago. get the picture :)

[unfrigginreal]

70. HaHa...this is Clark's 2nd bump

Don't forget the first time he sprung to the lead, that lasted what, 3 weeks?

[kentuck]

46. Don't be fooled. Clark is a strong candidate...

Much stronger with Dems in general than with DU, I would guess.

[AmericanDem]

51. Most aren't fooled they are

but after seeing the way some here speak, i would say jealousy and worry come to mind :).

[DemCam]

67. All ye naysayers...

Enjoy it now...because the General is Going Hot.

[Renew Deal]

64. My immpresion from talking to voters...

is that they are open to Clark. They just want more information on him. I rarely meet people that are "committed." Then again, we have seen a huge sea change lately on DU towards Clark, so it might be worth preaking to the choir.

[Ilsa]

53. I love the new ad they'll be running in NH.

Great comments about his service, his intellect (without making him sound too academic), and his ability to grasp what regular folks deal with compared to the silverspoon Shrub.

[Spazito]

55. Kick

for the evening crowd

[IndianaGreen]

60. Clark was leading Dean 21-16% on 10/6-8 in the same poll

Now Clark has tied Dean at 17%. Gephardt's numbers are creeping up. Kerry's numbers are steadily moving South, he is now in single digits.

If these trends hold, we can expect to have 4 candidates with a realistic shot at the nomination: Dean, Clark, Gephardt, and Lieberman. All the others are kaput!

On edit: Clark is NOT "gaining" as the poster of this thread said. Clark is still below his high of 21%, but he is recovering the ground that he lost.

Kerry is the biggest loser, going from 13% on 10/6-8, to a dismal 9%, quickly approaching Sharpton territory.

[WillyBrandt]

76. IndianaGreen -- I thought you were anti-Clark

Now you seem almost sympathetic.

Did I mis-remember, or have you changed your mind?

[Yupster]

63. Congressiomal numbers look bad

why the drop in the last few months?

[Ksec]

66. we could go for Dean and lose

or we could go for Clark and win. Hmm

[Zynx]

68. The one difference is that Clark is a much more appealing person than

Clinton. I didn't like Clinton, but I love Clark and Dean.

[Julien Sorel]

73. Clinton had quite a lot of appeal in his own right, and

he had an amazing ability to charm people who met him in person, especially media folks. I personally knew someone who was quite cynical about politics, but came away from spending a little time covering Clinton in 1991 convinced that Clinton was something special, and Clark himself apparently felt the same thing after meeting Clinton briefly at some meeting in Washington. Clark and Clinton are over-achieving Arkansas Rhodes Scholars and white men of relatively humble origins, and there the comparison ends. Clinton was 'The Natural,' whereas Clark is going to have to make it the hard way.

[incapsulated]

72. Clark on the rise...

Lookout! Here he come!

We will take them all on!

We will stomp all over everybody!

We will win, win, win!!!

Mwhahaha!



Ahem.

Sorry. I feel the primaries coming on...

:evilgrin:

[Clark Can WIN]

77. Amen Baby

They've been trying hard to annoint Dean, but you can't discount Clark or deny "it". And he has it in spades.

[Doctor_J]

83. In point of fact, our only hope

Sorry, Deannies, but it will be a cold day in Hell before Dr. Howie takes a Southern state from Smirk. Wes, OTOH, COULD take MO, OK, LA, AR, TN, AZ. He might not even need OH.

Love your spirit, but * will rout your guy.

[bobbieinok]

84. In OK, I think Clark has a chance of winning.

Dean....no way at all.

Why? civil unions would be the mantra 24/7.

And PLEASE remember, the religious right is not only in the south.

From what I've read here and watched about the 2000 rep primary and the 2002 election, the religious right is a factor in nearly every state.

To get the vote out for the reps, they will fire up the religious right. The BIG religious right topic right now is homosexuality; it's on the right talk shows and on the 'christian' radio and TV stations.

This is reality ... and must be considered if we really want democrats to win in 2004