Dean Leads in NY Poll....

[slinkerwink]

(taken from Daily Kos)
Zogby's first NY poll of the season. MoE +/- 5.5%.:

Not sure 41
Dean 21
Clark 9
Kerry 7
Gephardt 7
Sharpton 6
Lieberman 6
Other 2
Braun 1
Kucinich 1
Edwards 1

These results are really at odds with every other NY poll recently conducted:

(QP: Quinnipiac, M: Marist)

QP M
Lieberman 17 16
Dean 15 13
Clark 12 14
Kerry 11 8
Sharpton 11 10
Gephardt 9 8
Edwards 3 3
Braun 3 3
Kucinich 1 1
Undecided 19 23

Zogby is either an outlier or a trendsetter. Time will tell which. But the rest of the Zogby poll looks really good, no matter who you support:

Bush 40
Clark 45
Bush 41
Dean 46

Bush 38
Gephardt 48

Bush 41
Kerry 46

Bush 41
Lieberman 49

NY is a solid Dem state. No doubt about it.

Zogby doesn't push "leaners" so this reflects the hard support for each candidate in NY.

[La_Serpiente]

1. WOW

Dean's ratings just shot up. What happened to Lieberman's?

What can we draw out of this? Well, the undecided rate just skyrocketed. I think Democratic primary voters are just sitting back and watching to see what will happen these next couple of weeks. However, Dean does have the more hardcore voter support.

[slinkerwink]

4. It shows that more Dean supporters are committed to Dean

than Clark supporters are in NY.

[RummyTheDummy]

42. The 41 percent undecided is what jumps out at me, not Dean's numbers.

NT

[jeter]

2. This looks really good

I can't believe the huge lead Dean has there.

[slinkerwink]

3. yeah....I was there at the Bryant Rally....

the turnout was amazing! The NY for Dean group is very strong there...

[AmericanDem]

5. What you feel about Dean abiding by the spending limits in NH?

There is a subject line asking jus that. I was surprised you haven't given your opinion there.

[slinkerwink]

8. I don't think he should.......

because he's got eight candidates spending money to defeat him, so Dean needs the money to stay on top of all those machinations.

[AmericanDem]

11. yea what the heck.....

just like he went back on his word about the spending limits before, this is no exception.

[slinkerwink]

13. noooooo....

Dean's raising money at an impressive clip, so he cannot sit idly by while Bush effing smears him while he has no money to put forth in ads.....that's why Dean opted out.

[AmericanDem]

16. once again this has nothing to do with Bush

This NH against fellow Dems.

[Bertrand]

15. flip-flopping for political expediency is bad unless Dean does it

Seriously, this is becoming a joke.

[slinkerwink]

21. sour grapes.

:shrug:

[caledesi]

31. And with good reason. HD is a pragmatist.

His rationale for ditching matching funds is quite simple. * is probably going to raise about 200 million, so to compete on an equal field, HD ASKED his supporters to vote. The vote was unaminous...forego matching funds.

HD can raise as much money as he wants.

So Mr. *, what say you?

[slinkerwink]

32. btw, great sig line

[Cha]

6. Cool! Did you see that article in

"Newsweek" about Dean and The Unions by Jonathan Alter? It was really a good piece "Is Labor Dying Or Being Born?" ...I don't see it on the internet but it's in this week's with bill gates on the front.

[slinkerwink]

9. yeah, I read that article

it's a very good one.

[rucky]

7. The More Polls I Read

...the less I believe every last one of 'em.

[slinkerwink]

22. which supporter are you?

:shrug:

[Skwmom]

10. Zogby polls are just like the commercial real estate

appraisals which contributed greatly to the savings and loan debacle. For a price they will give you any result you want. I have an article that discusses this but I can't find the link.

[THUNDER HANDS]

12. the NY Dean meetups

Are growing every week. NY will vote for Dean if he's the nominee.

[slinkerwink]

20. that's true...

I went to a NY meet-up at the City Bar and Grill in the Upper East side----the place was PACKED!

[Renew Deal]

28. NY will vote for any Dem.

Reagan won in 84, otherwise NY is solid dem.

[Kahuna]

14. All of Zogby's polls seem to be out of sync with the other

polls. :shrug:

[slinkerwink]

18. Zogby also called the NH lead first before any other polls did...

so maybe Zogby's prescient?

[_NorCal_D_]

17. I'm

astonished that 41% remain undecided. Plus the margin of error is quite broad. Nevertheless, I guess things are looking good for Dean supporters. B-)

[slinkerwink]

19. shows the undecided are going to wait until the primaries to throw their

support to the nominee...

[slinkerwink]

23. :kick:

:kick:

[Renew Deal]

24. The good thing about NY is that a lot of candidates will drop by then.

It is March 2. The field will be less than half by then.

[slinkerwink]

25. that's true....

it's going to be so interesting.

[Renew Deal]

27. I doubt we will have more than

Clark, Dean, Gep, and maybe Lieberman by then. Maybe Kerry too, but I doubt it if he doesn't win any states by Feb. 3 which is very possible. Edwards may be there if he wins something on Feb 3 and 10. 1 or 2 states might keep him in, 0 will mean he is gone.

[slinkerwink]

30. I hope Kucinich, Sharpton, and Braun drop out soon.

[Renew Deal]

33. I like Sharpton

on some level, but I agree. I really think Edwards is close to the end too. He is just not moving up at all. Then again, he has nothing to lose by sticking around.

[slinkerwink]

38. yeah, that's true

but I don't think Edwards is going to count himself out anytime soon

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

26. March 2. Super Tuesday. It's over that week or the following

week when FL and TX have their say, imo.

[CMT]

29. interesting Gep does best in a general election campaign

beating Bush by ten-points. But everyone else is in the thick of it too. by five (Dean, Clark, Kerry) to eight points (Lieberman) over Bush.

New York will be strongly democratic no matter who we nominate.

[Renew Deal]

34. Those numbers are nuts

I guess it means that Gep and Lieberman are the unity candidates? I don't think so.

[slinkerwink]

40. I agree

[59millionmorons]

35. Not really

with a 41% not sure. But this is good for Dean. I am wary if he can win any staes outside the New England states.

[slinkerwink]

36. huh?

he's leading in AZ and in NC.....

[Zomby Woof]

37. looks like Not Sure is leading

Dean is a distant second to undecided voters like myself, by a huge margin. He is second to last next to Lieberman if I were forced to decide today. The fact is, most Americans - not being the political junkies that we are - are still ignorant that any of these candidates even exist. It is no sure thing that the "unexposed" or ill-informed will go to Dean's corner once they get a whiff of him.

In politics, anything can happen, and usually does.

[slinkerwink]

39. As I said before, it looks like the undecideds are going to wait until the

primaries to throw their support, and undecideds tend to go to the winner of the first few primaries, so it's likely to be Dean.

[Zomby Woof]

41. at least you said "likely"

And not something more definite.

Your statement sounds plausible, but I can think of many examples where those who did well early fizzled quickly. Gephardt (don't worry, I don't like him much either) won Iowa in '88, and then poof.

Clinton was more famous for coming in third in NH in '92 (I can't even remember who won, which really drives home my point here), because it showed he had resilience after the adultery allegations kept dogging him. In fact, he was dubbed "The Comeback Kid" because of NH.

Of course, statistically, you may be right (and I sure as hell don't feel like googling all of the primaries from the past 20+ years), which is why "likely" was a good choice of words, because I don't necessarily see the undecideds automatically embracing Dean after the first few primaries, even if he does very well. But I see where you are coming from - the "inevitability" factor. People do like frontrunners, and then you hear the pundits tossing out horse race metaphors, etc., it's pile-on time.

Dean will likely (hey, it's a good word) win NH, and maybe even place second in Iowa. But that slew of primaries come early February (one of them here in AZ) is too early to tell.

If NOTHING changes on the Democratic candidate landscape between now and February, then your analysis has weight. But the fact is, everything changes on the landscape all the time, for any or no reason.

I am content to wait and see on those undecideds.