Who Can Win Ohio? (Washington Post)

[chimpymustgo]

By Harold Meyerson
Wednesday, November 19, 2003; Page A27


The Democrats' scenario for picking up the White House next year looks increasingly like drawing to an inside straight.


That doesn't mean they won't be able to do it. A number of states could fill their hand. But with the continuing rightward gallop of the South, the Democrats are going to have to perform near-perfectly in the swing states of the Midwest.

-snip-

This Democratic move leftward is key to understanding the rise and repositioning of Howard Dean. A somewhat truculent centrist in his years as governor of Vermont, Dean has now embraced economic and trade policies well to the left of those he favored as governor (while losing none of his truculence).

-snip-
In the primary season soon to be upon us, Dean looks strongest where Democrats look strongest -- on the coasts. The decision of the Service Employees International Union to endorse Dean, for instance, was in large part due to the prodding of the union's New York and California locals. The Midwestern locals were, with one exception, distinctly less gung-ho.

-snip-

Ohio has hemorrhaged manufacturing jobs during the Bush presidency. It is also on Pew's list of states with the most "traditional social values," alongside most of the states of the South. This suggests that the kind of Democrat best positioned to win Ohio would favor a trade policy that takes labor standards and worker rights seriously, and wouldn't be too closely identified with issues such as civil unions and gay marriage. Dean has changed his position on trade to one that privileges labor as much as capital, but having signed Vermont's civil union law, he's a sitting duck for what is sure to be Karl Rove's campaign of calumnies.

If the Democratic game comes down to states like Ohio -- and I think it does -- then Wesley Clark or Dick Gephardt may be better positioned than Dean to oust the president. For Democrats who despise what Bush has done to this country and its good name, that's no small thing to consider.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A59640-2003Nov18.html

*******
Plenty of food for thought.

[rucky]

1. Unions Will Vote ABB

eom

[ShaneGR]

2. True, but since I'm in Ohio, I'll comment

Union support is not enough to win Ohio. For a Dem to carry Ohio, like Clinton did twice, you must do three things:

1. Win the NE (Cleveland, Akron, and the suburbs) by a landslide.

2. Appeal to at least 35% of the rural voters.

3. Win Franklin County (Columbus) with at least 55% of the vote.



After that you have to hope that turnout in the SW is weak.

Ohio is winnable with the right candidate, I've yet to be convinced Dean can do it. But maybe.

[1songbird]

4. I'm down here in Cincy

and it's going to be tough to get a good result down here. We have a well organized group here for the Clark campaign, but this area is strongly repuglican. We have had some manufacturing loss but it's been minimal. The economic numbers for Hamilton County, Warren County, and Butler County suggest that there's going to be strong economic growth. Remember that Indian Hills, the wealthiest community in this area, is the second highest donator to the Bush campaign nationwide.

[blm]

3. Midwestern union members also tend to be the pro strong military

style patriots, too.

[eileen from OH]

5. Yep, saw this. . .

And the importance of OH gets repeated ad nauseum. You'd think that might make it somewhat worthy of attention, even with the late primary. But so far, outside of Kucinich, who HAS to come here, we've had a real paucity of visits and attention by any of the DEM candidates. Bush or Cheney have been here a bahgillion times with all the resulting press and hoopla.

We lost OH to Bush on a very, very narrow margin because we were ignored and written off by the Gore/DNC campaign. Hate to see history repeat itself, but so far I'm real discouraged with the distinct disinterest that the Dem candidates have shown in coming to OH.

There's a reason Lieberman leads in Ohio polls - name recognition. There's a lot of people, like me, who are working hard for our candidates but we're pretty much doing it on our own.

Sorry for the whine, but I'm getting a tad tired of lip service paid to "the importance of OH" without the resources and interest and attention that we need from our candidates NOW.

eileen from OH

[chimpymustgo]

6. Ohio's primary is March 2. Expect the hoards after Feb 3.

I don't think this is going to be decided before March - so be careful what you ask for...

But I agree, it was a mistake to write off Ohio in 2000. I don't think it will happen this time around.

[blm]

7. Kerry did his major economic speech in Cleveland last Dec.

John Glenn introduced him. He gave a GREAT speech.