Data from Past NH Primaries - Polls Not Indicative of Outcome

[Justice]

I thought this piece was helpful to provide some context on the NH primary. While stating that Dean is the frontrunner, this story highlights how in past primaries, support tends to shift and settle in the closing weeks before the primary.

"The thing about New Hampshire is people make up their minds at the last minute, and there are a lot of surprises that have occurred in New Hampshire through the years."

"The most-asked question in New Hampshire is who can beat Bush."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,103593,00.html

[in_cog_ni_to]

1. Boy! You got that right!

In 2000, a Los Angeles Times poll two months before the New Hampshire Republican primary put Bush ahead of Arizona Sen. John McCain (search) 44 to 36 percent. McCain trounced Bush by nearly 20 points.

A New Hampshire poll three months before the Democratic primary showed former Sen. Bill Bradley with 45 percent, ahead of former Vice President Al Gore's 41 percent. Gore fought back to win.

Two months before New Hampshire's 1996 Republican primary, Sen. Bob Dole was leading 27-17 over commentator Pat Buchanan (search). Dole lost to Buchanan by one point.

Two months before the 1984 Democratic primary, former Vice President Walter Mondale (search) was at 46 percent and then-Sen. Gary Hart was at 8 percent. Hart beat Mondale by 10 points.

That is encouraging news for my candidate. :7 :bounce::bounce:

[Justice]

2. Pretty Startling

when you see the poll numbers here. It makes you realize that it ain't over until its over.

[in_cog_ni_to]

3. Right,

and it gives HOPE to the candidates who are NOT the front runners. NH is unpredictable.

[CTLawGuy]

5. don't mean to say that WC or anyone else could not come back...

but those were different ball games.

Bush essentially ignored new Hampshire and concentrated nationally, while McCain was in NH all the time. (I know, when I was in school, he visited at least 3 times, and Bush zero times). Dean is not ignoring New Hampshire however.

Gore had the entire establishment behind him that year. While Bradley was making a lot of noise, its hard to stop the entire democratic establishment. This year the establishment is fractured and leaderless. It's like Dean is Bradley, but Al Gore is 5 people.

The other scenarios I don't know personally about. But in those scenarios, the eventual losers were all high profile, very well known people. Dean is not one of those. He may be well known now, but he did it by talking to voters in NH and elsewhere, not by holding a high profile national office, such as VP or Senate Majority Leader. Dean has done hard work in NH, not ignored it like national frontrunners have.

[Bombtrack]

11. The dean-campaign created myth of his anti-establishmentness

lurks it's ugly head once again.

And you can say the same thing about Bradley, he and gore were supported by different parts of the democratic establishment, just in various degrees.

And the same thing with every democratic candidate this time around except Sharpton.

If anything Dean is more of an establishment candidate than most of the candidates, because he throws the most democrat-primary-voter red meat.

If you want to make comparisons to McCain being the anti-establishment primary candidate, the most appropriate comparison in that respect would be Lieberman, because they both told there respective republican and democrat audiences what they knew they didn't want to here.

[CTLawGuy]

15. we disagree on what "the Establishment" is.

Establishment means, to me, those currently in power in the party; those who have influence over the rank and file. You seem to think it's a strategy. The establishment is a loose entity of powerful people.

Dean is definitely NOT an establishement candidate. in NH for example, if you look on www.politicsnh.com and click on 2004 Tally Board, you can see that Kerry, Gephardt and Edwards, have the support of most of the power structure and Dean is lagging behind. The DLC, a powerful Democratic organization, has constantly bashed Dean. This is not surprising since Dean came to the spotlight by criticizing the Democratic leadership for caving to Bush on the War in Iraq.



You say Lieberman is "anti-establishment". I disagree, because for starters, he was the party's VP Candidate in 2000, which means he is connected to (or essentially is part of)the establishment. Establishment candidates don't throw "red meat" because they are more focused on the General Election and "swing voters". This is why Lieberman says what Dems dont want to hear, he is not talking to them. He expects the establishment to win him the nomination, so he is talking to swing voters whom he wants to wrestle from Bush. Establishement candidates use the influence of the establishment over the rank and file to get them to vote for him. Someone like Dean uses a "grassroots strategy". with no powerful people really backing him, Dean goes to the people themselves, many of whom are disillusioned with the establishment, to win their votes(these people fueled Bradley in my opinion).


Because Dean gained his power by going to the people who will vote for him directly and engaging them, he is less likely to have his support evaporate, a la Walter Mondale in 1984. If people say on a poll they like you because you are the only name they know, that's not real support. Dean has zero problems like that becuase he started with almost zero name ID.

Finally, McCain is definitely not Establishment. You do not call Pat Robertson "evil" if you are in the GOP establishment.

[KaraokeKarlton]

4. This happens because they don't poll enough Independents

In NH, Independents are the majority, and they typically vote and end up influencing the outcome. The primary this year is actually going to match the polls because Dean enjoys overwhelming support from NH's Independents compared to the other candidates.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Not when they see how two faced Dean is

Reality will sink in. Dean is an opportunist of the highest (lowest) order.

[CTLawGuy]

7. such hatred for Dean...

who do you support again? I can't ever tell. Does that person have ideas of his own that might be good for the country? How about sharing them instead of the constant slandering of Howard Dean?

Thanks!

[KaraokeKarlton]

14. Nonsense...

NH already knows Dean, which is why they like him almost as much as Vermont does. In most areas of the state our media outlets cover both states equally. NH knows Dean's record and can spot the lies told by the other candidates just as easily as Vermonters can. Hmmm, maybe that's why your candidate has been consistently slipping ever since he started with the inaccurate attacks on Dean.

[WhosNext]

17. Bitter about Kerry, eh?

LOL

[CWebster]

8. Amazing

how many of the new troops link to Right wing sources.

[Hep]

9. Amazing?

Nothing suprises me anymore. They're one step away from quoting Coulter and taking it seriously.

Check my sig, and my favorite Russell quote:

"Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones."

[Karmadillo]

10. What facts in the article do you find inaccurate?

It leads with a quote from a Democrat and then uses several past primaries as evidence in support of its headline. Seems no less reasonable an article than those posted from "liberal" sources such as the NY Times and the Washington Post.

[CWebster]

12. LOL

"liberal"

[Karmadillo]

13. LOL

"'liberal'"

[Karmadillo]

16. Kick

n/t