Rank the Candidates (Depth of DU support)

[Bucky]

Ref: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=741467&mesg_id=741467&page=

In this thread I did a statistical analysis of the first 37 DUers to vote in the Rank the Candidates poll. I want to update the findings since now there are a total of 52 candidate rankings (plus I found a keystroking error in my original analysis).

If you allow the 52 voters to "split" their votes (several folks said it was a three- or two-way tie), then candidate totals for first place votes are:
19.0 votes (37%) - Clark
15.5 votes (30%) - Dean
07.1 votes (14%) - Edwards
05.6 votes (11%) - Kucinich
03.0 votes 0(6%) - Kerry
01.0 votes 0(3%) - Sharpton
00.3 votes 0(1%) - Moseley Braun
00.3 votes 0(1%) - Gephardt

As a compromise over more sophisticated ranking systems (to which I don't have access) I used a crude counting system. For first place choices, I allotted 9 points, for second place I gave 8 points, for third place 7 points, and so on until I got to the 9th place choice, who got 1 point. If the poster said there was a tie, they each got the next value of points available. Candidate not mentioned at all got no points at all. (*For example, if there's a tie for first place, then there is no second place choice. The next most popular is counted as the 3rd place choice)

Using this system, I calculated the ranking of support for the candidates this way:

Candidate - Pts - Avg Rank
W. Clark - 364 - 7.0
H. Dean - 329 - 6.3
Edwards - 289 - 5.6
Jn. Kerry - 288 - 5.5
Kucinich - 266 - 5.1
Gephardt - 249 - 4.9
Mo-Braun - 211 - 4.1
Sharpton - 109 - 2.9
Lieberman- 106 - 2.1


To figure out who the strongest second choice candidate is, I calculated the value of points if you remove everybody's number one choice: In the first (un-scientific) analysis of this (un-scientific) sample, I concluded that Dean is the most polarizing candidate, but the case seems to be less so now that more data has come in. He is in second place in one-vote-only totals and third place when looking for secondary candidates.

Candidate - Rank
W. Clark - 5.4
Jn. Kerry - 5.3
H. Dean - 5.0
Edwards - 4.7
Gephardt- 4.8
Kucinich - 4.5
Mo-Braun-4.0
Sharpton - 2.8
Lieberman- 2.0

Finally, one poster (Montebank) asked for an IRV for these numbers. I have no idea what IRV means. If anyone wants me to email them the Excel document I made in doing these numbers, I'll be happy to. But remember that we are not a scientific sampling of even the DU website, much less the Democratic party, and that these are not even scientfic measures of the actual depth of candidate support.

[CMT]

1. you put a lot of effort into this

very interesting results. Thanks for posting.

[Bucky]

4. "Perhaps I'm obsessive compulsive"......... (a survey update)

At 57 votes, it's Clark 21, Dean 16.5, Edwards 7.2, and Kucinich 6.7.

Ranking averages (with the higher number meaning the greater popularity) are Clark 7.1, Dean 6.3, Edwards & Kerry at 5.6, and Kucinich at 5.0.

In other words, the average DUer ranks Clark in 3rd place, Dean in 4th place, Kucinich in 5th place, and Edwards & Kerry someplace in between Kuchi and Dean.

[xultar]

2. Can you balance my checkbook?

[BlueEyedSon]

3. DU Democratic primary straw poll here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=89190