Saturday Morning Poll Numbers....interesting

[radfringe]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Nov. 14-16, 2003. N=876 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, would you say you are certain to vote for Bush, you are probably going to vote for him, you are leaning toward voting for him, you are unsure about voting for or against him, you are leaning against voting for him, you are probably going to vote against him, or would you say you are certain to vote against Bush?" Options rotated

Certain to vote for Bush ......................... 24
Probably going to vote for Bush ........ 13
Leaning toward voting for Bush .......... 7
Unsure ..................................... 13
Leaning against voting against Bush .. 4
Probably going to vote against Bush .. 6
Certain to vote against Bush................ 33


http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm
The Los Angeles Times Poll. Nov. 15-18, 2003. N=1,345 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample).
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?"
Approve = 45
Disapprove = 51

"All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?"
Worth It = 48
Not Worth It = 43

"Generally speaking, do you trust President Bush and his advisors to make the right decisions about Iraq, or not?"
Trust = 53
Do Not Trust = 41

"Generally speaking, do you think the outcome of the war in Iraq has been worth the cost in U.S. military lives, or not?"
Worth It = 31
Not Worth It = 59

"Generally speaking, do you think the outcome of the war in Iraq has been worth the financial cost to the U.S., or not?"
Worth It = 35
Not Worth It = 57

"Do you think the U.S. is winning the war in Iraq, or do you think the anti-U.S. insurgents in Iraq are winning the war, or is neither side winning the war in Iraq?"
U.S. = 37
Insurgents = 4
Neither Side = 52

[FrenchieCat]

1. I guess it that 13%

unsure that we are going for. Otherwise it's pretty much even as to will and who won't most likely vote for Bush.

That's why we need someone to appeal to that damm 13%....that would be Candidate Clark!

[Robin Hood]

4. I couldn't agree more.

Clark/Dean spread the word.

[Stuckinthebush]

8. You may be right

I am a Dean supporter, but I also think that that middle 13% would be more attracted to Clark.

I think we will have a solid 40 to 45% of the vote no matter who gets the nomination. There are 6% to 11% of the voters that are so middle of the road or are so unengaged, that they won't make up their mind until near the end of the campaigns.

These are the people who go into the booth and vote for whoever comes to mind at the time.

Clark may be the one to pull this thing out.

[grasswire]

2. ha!

Clinton greatest president 9 percent
W greatest president 3 percent
Bush I greatest president 2 percent


Hilarious. Even if you add the Bushes together, Clinton still beats them soundly.

[oasis]

3. Chimpy =Thomas Jefferson?????Something wrong with those pollsters.

[TreasonousBastard]

5. and not with the people polled?

[onebigbadwulf]

6. God Americans are so goddamn Stupid

"All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?"
Not Worth It = 43

"Generally speaking, do you think the outcome of the war in Iraq has been worth the cost in U.S. military lives, or not?"
Not Worth It = 59

"Generally speaking, do you think the outcome of the war in Iraq has been worth the financial cost to the U.S., or not?"
Not Worth It = 57

"Do you think the U.S. is winning the war in Iraq, or do you think the anti-U.S. insurgents in Iraq are winning the war, or is neither side winning the war in Iraq?"
Neither Side = 52


These numbers contradict each other! Goddamn, why can't Americans stay consistent with anything. A majority think it wasnt worth the cost of lives, money, and we aren't winning, yet a minority think it wasn't worth fighting?! Someone please give me a gun.

[FlaGranny]

10. Amazing,

I couldn't help but notice that inconsistency.

[economic justice]

7. Looking better!

I can't help but thinki things are turning! And to think the campaign hasn't even begun! This is a good way to strat the weekend. Thanks for posting!

[Donna Zen]

9. Just the facts:

Over on the Clark blog there is someone whose professional career includes crunching poll numbers. He has pointed out something that consistently is reflected in the ever fluctuating numbers. The undecided voters change their position to "bush" vs Dean. IOW, there is a polarization occurring regarding Gov. Dean that moves his head to head bush stats to a weaker showing than Kerry or Clark. In this latest poll the same thing occurs, although only by one point. With the media hammering the meme: Dean=angry liberal, this may be a difficult perception to overcome.

That middle percentage of voters is known as the "sweet spot" among the pros. With the country divided as it is, it is what we are playing for regardless of the arguments at DU. Who can win the sweet spot may seem to be of no consequence to those of us who run threads into the hundreds hammering out differences that will matter not when one considers the differences that would actually be in play during a Democratic presidency vs a second round of the chimp. An example: the energy bill....all of the Democratic candidates, even liberman, would push for a bill that is much more people friendly as opposed to the current gas-oil-polluter give away. The same can be said of trade. After all, any Democratic president will be relying on many of the same advisors, just as they are now.

But it is the sweet spot that does matter if you are seriously sick to death of what is happening now. So here is the choice we face, we can start voting smart, or we can continue to bash and trash at the primary level with a message sure to turn off the non-DUers who would love to crossover to vote with you, but will not do so if they are polarized and marginalized.

[LouisFC]

11. "Sweet Spot" voters

I work in a very conservative environment and can tell you that about half of the people are sick of Bush, but would not vote for any Democrat other than Clark.

These are people that I had fierce arguments with in 2000 about their support for Bush. They see the error of their ways now, but aren't voting for a "New England Liberal". This is what I see as Dean's (and Kerry's) biggest problem in the Midwest and South.

As a former New Englander who is firmly in the moderate category, I can tell you that it is a label that I have been unable to shake since moving to the Midwest.

I support Clark because he inspires me, but even if he didn't my conversations with convertible Republicans would convince me that he was the one.

[newyawker99]

13. Hi LouisFC!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Donna Zen]

15. same story

One of my good buddies in Maine is from Arkansas. She's in close connact with her bush-voting family back in Little Rock. They are all pumped for Wesley, and that is the only Democrat they will consider even though they think junior is full of shit. Crazy? What does it matter? That is what they say and how they feel. To say the non-southern strategy is the way to go, is true even for a Clark campaign, but making Bush work for the South is even smarter. Bush needs the solid south more than the Democrats, but handing it to him when an alternative exists is pointless.

Where I live, four disgruntled repubs spoke with me last week because they are very interested in Clark. My area is rural and Christian; the poorest county in the state and completely represented by repubs within the state legislature. They get nothing for their dumb votes but nothing stops them. Again, a Clark candidacy interests them, but that's as far as they willing to go.

What is curious to me, is that Clark's positions are in line with the other 8, but somehow the perception is exactly opposite. Tell them that they will lose their "invisible" tax cut and they will cut and run. Cognitive disconnect is a dangerous thing, but denying its existance is also a cognitive disconnect that we would be well advised to avoid.

[LouisFC]

16. The Difference

I think the difference in perception is about the language used in making the argument. Someone (either here or on the Clark blog) was referring to this the other day and saying that Clark is able to sell his liberal ideas in a way that they appear more conservative.

[UTUSN]

12. RAYGUN and JFK Were "Greater" Than FDR?

Boggles the mind.

[leftchick]

17. That struck me too....

:wtf:

[UTUSN]

18. Might Shed Some Light on Polls n/t

[Poiuyt]

20. FDR was the greatest

I once read an article that said that presidential historians consider Roosevelt, Lincoln, and Washington to be the three greatest presidents. I forgot their criteria, but leading the country during time of disaster was one of them. As I recall, they placed FDR at the top because he led us out of two disasters (the Great Depression, and WWII).

[Renew Deal]

14. That 33% is our base. Their 24% is their base. We are holding our base.

We have our whole base locked in. If they don't, that's bad for them.

[xJlM]

19. One percent actually think Nixon was our greatest president

And three percent think Bush* was. I gotta ask, what kind of moron do you have to be to be chosen for this poll?