Canadian DUers: I'm a New Democrat but...

[Some Moran]

Doesn't Jack Layton not sound a wee bit insane when he goes on about the NDP being able to win seats in Quebec?

God, they finished behind the Natural Law and the Bloc Pot in some ridings last time around.

[CanuckAmok]

1. Well...

...you don't win elections by saying you won't win. It's all about perception.

[Spazito]

2. They have to keep trying to break the barrier so I can see why..

he is saying that. It would be interesting to see the # of voters that voted NDP last election and the one before that to see if there were any gains.

[Some Moran]

3. They made some fairly significant gains in the Ontario Election...

Here's why:

Although they lost seats, they increased their share of the popular vote by 2% in spite of the Green Party's presence in the election. (The Green Party captured over 5% of the vote in my riding, yet the New Democrats only went down from like 4.65% to like 4.4%...Last election, the Greens had no candidate here.)

And they did it all without needing Bob Rae and his Blairite cronies. :)

The NDP will not make gains in Quebec not because there are no progressives or socialists in Quebec: There are more such people in Quebec than there are in about 1/2 of the U.S.A combined. The NDP will get clobbered once again in Quebec because politics -- both provincially and gederally -- in Quebec is polarised between federalists and sovereigntists, as opposed to between left-wing and right-wing views.

Federalists vote Liberal and sovereigntists vote Bloc Québécois regardless of ideology.

Do I believe they'll improve?

Yes.

The sovereigntist forces are weaker than they were and the New Democrats are better organised in Quebec then they have ever been before.

Paul Martin's enormous personal popularity in Quebec will ensure that these improvement are insufficient.

[Spazito]

5. Thanks for the info...

it was very interesting and I agree re Paul Martin and his popularity in Quebec, it will stall any possible gains for the NDP for a while at least.

[MrPrax]

4. Federally the New Dems will have problems

Problems Everywhere next time around...especially if the Right-Unites...

Too bad, they actually have a good leader this time in Jack Layton, who is bilingual.

But they fumbled around in the wilderness for too long in the 90s with the Reign of the Two Macs...

Looks like the BC NDP will be down and out for a another 2 decades...


I Have No Experience, But I Have A Big Heart!

[Some Moran]

6. Don't count Layton out...

Ed Broadbent -- so popular that the NDP actually finished first in one federal poll during the late-1980s -- is a huge Layton fan.

[Minstrel Boy]

7. And Broadbent

is seriously considering returning to politics, to run in Ottawa Centre.

[Some Moran]

8. Hahaha...

Too bad Mac Harb's gone to the Senate. I'd love to see Broadbent kick hiss ass.

[MrPrax]

12. Oh I like Layton...

Met him last year at a Peace Group discussion--he's a good guy and he is well liked by the Media and even by his opponents.

It really isn't a Layton thing so much as a Party thing.
Two Points

1) the structure and dynamic of the Federal NDP don't add up to mass appeal; they're are too many people/orgs/unions involved that are too self-absorbed in 'principles' and not in electability...I see some as being really only interested in 'appearances' and not enough on 'substance'...it is fine to cater to 'special interest' politics, but it will not get you elected and the maddening thing, it doesn't really pay the bills for the NDP federally either...

2) If the Right gets together and looks like a threat (probably not this time, but the next), then I Will Hold My Nose and Vote Liberal and most 'real' Democrats will to kept that traitor-trash from AB out of power...
I certainly hope people Don't make the same mistake they did in 1988!

Third -Party Politics are fine, but, only when there is nothing important to gain...

[Minstrel Boy]

13. Canada already has a "united right" party.

It's the Liberals. ;)

So long as Quebec remains in Canada, the Alliance will never take power. And that includes their "Conservative Party" takeover.

The NDP has a shot, I think, of forming the official opposition in 2004. (A piece from the Calgary Herald agrees: http://action.web.ca/home/ndpnpd/en_ndpinthenews.shtml?sh_itm=3360398ae6bcf8d9bafa799f0483cb4a) In which case, "third-party politics" needn't apply.

[MrPrax]

14. Calgary Herald?

um...Why would a Calgary paper boost the profile of the NDP?

Yeah the Liberals are right-wing, but not the nutbar rightwing...and if Broadbent 'stepped down' in Liberal 'safe' seats then we wouldn't have had free trade...(some enquiring minds would love to know about that little scam--as you said, the national media, particularly the Glob, pumped up Broadbent--then Broadbent took a 'patronage' job from Mulroney--hmm)

The older I get, the more realistic I become about what is do-able in Canadian politics...

A right-wing open line show host here interviewed Layton and pretty well summed it up; the liberals are for pot, for gay marriage, against the war...then asked, "Why does Canada need you, Jack?"

But you sound like a 'true believer' anyhow

[Screaming Lord Byron]

16. It's a long shot, but I think the Alliance may go into meltdown.

So, you never know.

[Minstrel Boy]

10. I hadn't followed the BC NDP leadership contest.

Was that really Carole James' slogan? "I Have No Experience, But I Have a Big Heart!" Ouch.

[Spazito]

11. Unless Carole starts to re-build the B.C. NDP from the bottom up..

they are going to wander in the wilderness for a long time. There are a lot of former NDP supporters that won't soon forget the betrayal of the Glen Clark mess and those who supported him at that time and I am one of those former supporters. If it is just the same old under a new name, it won't sell for me.

[Lisa]

18. I'll look into this ...

There's supposed to be a "meet the new leader" event in Victoria later this month. The impression I get is that Carole is going to bring on board a bunch of new people who weren't involved earlier -- a lot of folks from the NDP "farm teams" in civic politics (school boards, city councils, etc.). I think this'll be good because we need some fresh ideas, as you said.

[Spazito]

19. I hope Carole stays in close contact with Mike Harcourt....

he is the only big name left in the provincial NDP that has maintained his reputation and integrity, imo.

[Lisa]

20. oh, he's around ...

I know from various folks that Mike Harcourt's been helping encourage some newcomers to get involved in politics. By the way, did you catch the reference to him in "DaVinci's Inquest" yesterday night? The show credited him with an idea for helping Vancouver's East Side -- and the characters mentioned that his condition has improved dramatically since the accident. (True.)

[Spazito]

21. Yes, his recovery has been wonderful!

I have always respected him and how he handled the backstabbing, by the Clark gang, with such dignity.

Edited to add: I am glad that he is working to renew the party, that will be very helpful.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

15. Actually I disagree. I think the ND's will do pretty well in 2004

The right can't unite because it's already united. Stephen Harper in charge of a 'new' Conservative party will turn moderate tories off in droves. I'm more enthusiastic about this next election that I've been for years.

[Minstrel Boy]

9. no buts - it's quite possible

Pierre Ducasse was a very popular leadership candidate early in the year. Finished fourth, but was the hit of the convention. Ducasse will be a great asset building the party in Quebec.

Layton himself was born in Montreal and is fluently bilingual. He can talk to Quebec like no NDP leader has been able to do.

The BQ is losing appeal. Socialists and social democrats, and there are a lot of them in Quebec, could be shopping for an attractive alternative. The NDP's campaign will, I think, generate a lot of excitement, and Layton's an extremely capable campaigner.

It's forgotten now, but in the late '80s, before the BQ, the NDP was making inroads in Quebec. It won a by-election (I think in Chambly). With the BQ fading, I think the NDP under Layton is bound to make gains in Quebec next election. Enough to win seats? We'll see. But it's hardly an insane objective.

[Lisa]

17. well, they do have Pierre Ducasse ...

As MB pointed out just above.

Apparently he's really helped raise the party's profile in Quebec. And given that Quebec has a pretty strong tradition of progressive ideas (they're the ones who came up with credit unions, for instance) -- I don't think it's too farfetched. An urban riding (e.g. in Montreal) might be a possibility ... already the big cities in Canada are more like each other than even their own provinces, and increasingly the feeling in those urban neighbourhoods is leaning left.

As for the "insane" part -- you pretty much have to be, knowing that the best thing that would likely happen is "kingmaker" in a minority Liberal government (as happened to the NDP during Trudeau's time) -- most NDPers I know don't think that they would ever sweep the House of Commons. The NDP gives a political voice to people who may not otherwise have one (it just happens that on many traditional issues, such as peace, civil rights, and the social safety net, a lot of Canadians are currently in agreement). And if it means being laughed at, even after the other parties have swiped planks out of the platform ... it wouldn't be the first time.

Jack's being optimistic, which is part of his job -- and from what I've seen, he is putting way more heart into it than some provincial NDPers who actually have a chance of winning elections before the end of this decade!