The Trends Are In Our Favor

[SavageWombat]

... believe it or not.

I'd love to see poll results that support this, but from what I've heard -

Lots of people who voted for Bush in 2000 are going to vote against him in 2004.

I've yet to hear of anyone who voted for Gore in 2000 that now intends to vote for Bush, regardless of how his "How'm I doin'?" goes.

Doesn't that suggest that we're picking up more votes all the time? How can we lose at this rate?

Rebuttal?

[maddezmom]

1. my inlaws

who have never voted anything but Repub are looking at the dem candidates.

[caledesi]

2. I think so. Listen to this story.

My cousin's son has been in the Army for 10 years and just got back from Kuwait. In January, they are sending him to Iraq.

He HATES * and is definitely not going to vote for him again, as is his entire family (they are all Repugs).

And from what he says, most of the troops hate * because they think he is a liar. Ya think?

[wryter2000]

7. I personally know three

I know three people who voted for * who will vote for someone else in 2004.

[proud patriot]

3. I do agree

[adriennel]

4. remember George the First

I need to do some research....but wasn't George I receiving high approval marks right up until election day? and the issues he faced--namely the Persian Gulf War and economic recession--are so much more volatile now. We have a good shot.

[elperromagico]

20. No, his numbers were consistently dropping

In fact, another DUer has a nifty chart which shows the Gallup approval ratings of Presidents Carter through Bush 43.

Clinton and Reagan (the two-termers) have practically identical approval patterns. Bush 43's rating is in the same decline as his father's.

On edit: Found the DUer with the nifty chart. In fact, the chart can be found right on this thread! HFishbine, thank you.

[HFishbine]

24. You're welcome

Mr. Magico,

If you want to find it in the future, it accessible from this page (along with other goodies):

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/pollkatzcontentpage.html

[elperromagico]

26. What I really want to know

is what software is used to produce those charts. I want to create charts like that!

[HFishbine]

28. E-mail the guy

who authors the site: [e-mail]

[TXvote]

5. Funny Thing About Polls

they only include people who answer the phone and are willing to talk, sometimes at length. Seems to me the reason polls tend not to reflect my reality is that I am never home to answer the phone.


Hmmmmmm.

Peace,
Teresa
www.votervirgin.com

[eissa]

6. I'm totally optimistic about 04

Yes, the country is still sharply divided, and with the exception of a few defections on both sides (that asshole Zell Miller), it will still be a close race. However, I'm quite certain that many Greens, seeing the disaster that has been the bush years, will not make the same mistake this time around. I'm also convinced that many independents who sat it out last time will come our way next year. The WH is ours, baby!

[salinen]

12. If the elections are

legimate. Polling places will be the front lines of the next war! in this the most important election in the history of the third planet from the sun.

[HFishbine]

8. Here's a trend for you

[abcdan]

17. Clinton and Reagan parallels

It's interesting how Clinton and Reagan followed the same general trend of approval, except that Reagan dropped off for about a year and a half at the end of his 2nd term. I imagine Iran Contra was a factor, but surprisingly Clinton's impeachment did not have a similar effect.

[elperromagico]

22. People supported Clinton during the impeachment

because they knew it was bullshit. "Let the man do his damned job" seems to have been the general theme at the time. Iran-Contra was a different kettle of fish altogether.

Note, once again, the consistency in the Clinton/Reagan approval ratings. Then compare it to the wild jumps in the Bush 41/Bush 43 approval ratings.

[eissa]

9. Add this also

I know some Arab-Americans that actually worked really hard to get * elected (voter registrations, working the Muslim community, etc.) Some were actually democrats, but like others within the Muslim community, were wrongly worried that with Lieberman on the ticket, it would bascially be the Likud party governing here. Let me tell you, there is no chance in hell they will be voting for shrub next year.

[hatrack]

27. Correctamundo!

Bush pulled a touch more than half of Muslim voters in 2000.

The most recent polls I've seen on Muslim voters showed that two percent of that bloc planned on supporting him in 2004.

I guess that's what you could call a "decline" if you were a professional pollster.

[HFishbine]

10. Here's another

Approval: "approve" = A (4 g.p.), "mixed feelings" or "not sure" = C (2 g.p), "disapprove" = F (0 g.p.)
Reelection: "definitely bush" = A, "consider someone else" or "not sure" = C, "vote for someone else" = F

[Imajika]

11. It doesn't work that way

"I've yet to hear of anyone who voted for Gore in 2000 that now intends to vote for Bush, regardless of how his 'How'm I doin'?' goes."

The voting pool changes. It won't just be previous Gore voters and Bush voters. You need to add first time voters who are either now old enough to vote or have become motivated to do so. Further, some that voted in 00' will not bother in 04'.

Because you've yet to hear of anyone who voted for Gore in 2000 say they will now vote for Bush is not evidence of anything.

"Lots of people who voted for Bush in 2000 are going to vote against him in 2004."

What is lots of people? The people you know? The bits of ancedotal evidence you read on DU? How do you know the "lots of people" of which you speak will not be outnumbered by more people that will be first time Bush voters?

"The Trends Are In Our Favor... believe it or not."

I don't necessarily believe it. I do suspect overall US demographics tend to favor the Democratic party to some extent, but I think Bush has a very solid base, and I think it will be extraordinarily difficult to defeat him. It is very hard to beat an incumbent President - especially if the economy begins to pick up.

Imajika

[SavageWombat]

13. True

That's why I asked about polls. I'm sure someone out there has polling data on how many Gore voters plan to vote Bush, and how many Bush voters now plan to vote --insert Dem here--.

[HFishbine]

23. If it's something more than anecdotes

you seek. There is empirical evidence Bush's base is erroding.

Poll data shows those saying they are "very likely" to vote for Bush has dropped from 38% to 32% since May. Those who say they are "somewhat likely" have decreased from 18% to 15%.

Meanwhile, over the same period, those who say they are "somewhat unlikely" to vote for Bush rose from 8% to 10%. Those who say they are "very unlikely" to vote for Bush rose from 33% to 38%.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[mrgorth]

14. We will likely lose hawkish dems

We'll pick up some real republicans but unless we have 2 hawkish dems running we are going to lose some Gore voters. I already know of several.

[otohara]

15. Muslim American's Won't Be Voting

for him again. 60,000 in Florida - twice that in Michigan

[RandomUser]

16. Depends on the candidate

When matched up against a generic Democratic nominee, Bush does a lot worse. But when a specific name is place on the Dem nom, Bush rises a little. Thus, generic trends will be moderated by the person we nominate.

Remember, Gray Davis was very unpopular and yet still won reelection. The people hated him, but didn't trust the alternative.

[eissa]

19. But the general public

really doesn't know the candidates yet. I swear I'm the only one among my colleagues that has been a regular follower of the primaries. And these are university personnel! The polls are reflective of the public's ignorance of the candidates thus far; this will change in early '04.

[gratuitous]

18. I think you're correct

But I still plan to work real hard next year for whoever the Democratic nominee is. We need to get Stupidhead out and leave no doubt that he's not wanted!

[elperromagico]

21. Well, I'm going to write letters to each member of the Trend family,

thanking them for their favor. :crazy:

[izzie]

25. I do not do these things good. I was sure Bush1 was going to win.

I do think this, that as a world it is all going liberal. That is one reason that GOP is picking up things the Dem are usually into and pushing through as that is what the people want. So they have picked a Dem item and used it for them selfs. They also run on our beliefs even if they do not govt on them untill just before the elections.To go back to the old does not work and never has. The rightwingers are holding on for dear life in a world movement that is telling them to get the hell out of the way. It is like the old ruling families of England lost their power and now they are just figure heads that sit in the House of Lords. They used to be the power.Kings are gone and so are nations and I am sure we have moved into the world of mens thoughts.We are going to fight and live for ideas and they are liberal.Off my soap box.

[salinen]

29. Man how I wish

we all liked the same candidate now. We could then pool our resources in one direction. You pick him/her, and I'll back that choice (except Lieberman).

[eissa]

30. It WILL happen

Despite the nastiness sometimes prevalent in the DU, I am quite confident that once the primaries are over the nominee will receive our support, however grudingly. I truly believe that 99% of all democrats are of the ABB mentality (I know I am) and will vote for whoever gets the nomination. Don't worry about the current infighting, WE WILL BE UNITED!

[vdeputy]

31. You're right -

I know several who voted for Bush who won't again but come to think of it, I don't know of anyone who voted for Gore who will now vote for Bush.

[liberalcapitalist]

32. ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Bush will be hammered in the popular vote. The question is whether or not he can get the slight victories where he needs them in states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.