Ipsos-Reid/Cook national poll

[pruner]

Dean 20 (12)
Clark 16 (n/a)
Gephardt 14 (14)
Lieberman 12 (14)
Other 12 (23)
Kerry 10 (20)
Edwards 5 (6)
Kucinich 4 (n/a)
Sharpton 3 (3)
Braun 3 (3)

MoE +/- 4.4%. (July results in parenthesis).

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[Some Moran]

1. Lieberbush is still to high for comfort...

*shudders*

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. It might come down to a Clark vs. Dean contest.

:dem:

[Kahuna]

6. The media is still on that kick, Dean vs. Gep. This is..

good for Clark. It has been my experience that when the media tries to push a candidate voters usually will start to pay attention. when they start to pay attention they usually pick a candidate that is a sleeper to the media.

Go Clark! :bounce:

[Ficus]

3. National polls mean jack

in primary season. only statewide polls make sense to look at. But it is interesting to see who rose and who fell.

Clark +16
Dean +8
Kucinich +4
Gephardt +0
Sharpton +0
Braun +0
Edwards -1
Lieberman -2
Kerry -10

So the real losers this summer/fall have been Kerry, Edwards, and Lieberman, and the real winners Clark, Dean, Kucinich.

[Ficus]

4. Does that mean anything else

as far as who voted for IWR:
Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman

and against or against the war:
Clark, Dean, Kucinich

[pruner]

5. saying Clark is +16 is a little disingenuous

more than a little actually.

[Ficus]

7. well, partially

BUT as much as you may not like the dude, he has gone from 0% to 16%. He wasn't a candidate then, so I think it's pretty amazing from him going from a draft movement to 16% without hardly stumping for long. Even during the draft movement, I doubt his support would have topped 16%. All that aside, I think he's won supporters in the past few months, not lost them.

[Mattforclark]

10. concur

+/- doesn't make sense when you have nothing to compare it to (for this particular poll)

[Ficus]

12. ok then

Look better everyone?

Dean +8
Kucinich +4
Gephardt +0
Sharpton +0
Braun +0
Edwards -1
Lieberman -2
Kerry -10

Clark n/a

[HFishbine]

11. Get real

Clark +16%??? LOL!

That's only because the last Ipsos-Reid poll was taken BEFORE Clark entered the race and therefore he wasn't even an option.

If you want a true measure of trends, one can look at the Fox/Opinion Dynamics Poll that offers three polls since Clark got in the race. Here's what that looks like, oldest to newest (9/24, 10/15, 11/19):

Dean: 13, 12, 18 (+5)
Clark: 20, 13, 14 (-6)
Lieberman: 9, 11, 10 (-1)
Gephardt: 9, 9, 9 (0)
Kerry: 10, 10, 8 (-2)
Braun: 2, 3, 3 (+1)
Edwards: 5, 3, 3 (-2)
Kucinich: 1, 2, 2 (+1)
Sharpton: 2, 2, 2 (0)
Not sure: 21, 35, 25 (+4)

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[Ficus]

13. I stand corrected

and that's fine with me since I really ain't too cool with Clark after I read his speech to the School of the Americas.

And my first point is the one that is most important - national polls mean jack in primary season.

[HFishbine]

16. The Meaning of Polls at This Stage

I don't know if I'd go so far as to say they don't mean jack. But I think I understand what you are saying -- that they are no indication of who will utlimately win. What they are good for is showing trends -- whose campaign is being effective, whose isn't.

They are like getting basketball scores every few minutes. If over the course of a few reports one sees a team's lead increase from 2 points, to 6 points, to 12 points, one can devine that that team is playing well. But just like in basketball, deficts can be overcome and it's not over until the final buzzer.

[jmaier]

14. Pick a Poll

Okay, let's play pick a poll and spot the trend. I'd say Gallup is pretty good source from their Nov 14-16 poll of 1,004 with an MOE +-3. The earliest poll number is from Oct 6-8.

Dean: 17,l7,16,13,16 (+1)
Clark: 17,14,15,18,21 (-4)
Lieberman:13,15,12,13,13 (0)
Gephardt: 13,12,12,10,8 (+5)
Kerry: 9,10,10,11,13 (-4)
Braun: 4,4,4,5,4 (0)
Edwards: 6,7,6,6,2 (+4)
Kucinich: 3,3,1,3,2 (+1)
Sharpton: 5,3,6,6,6 (-1)
Not sure: 13,15,18,15,15 (-2)


Who knows what this means. Though with Dean's funds, organization and media coverage, I wonder where his bounce is nationally? In fact, national polls taken immediately prior to the Iowa caucuses have been a pretty good indication of nomination outcome.


Wes Clark '04 -- All patriot. No Act.

[wyldwolf]

15. Funny you should pick a poll that says what you want to hear...

..sad that the poll you chose was the FOX poll. Is everything they say now gospel?

Why didn't you use the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll? Because Clark looks too good in it.

Howard Dean 17 17 16 13 16
Wesley Clark 17 14 15 18 21

Oh. look! They're tied!

[HFishbine]

8. Interesting Clark Observation

Although the issue seems to have come and gone, this poll casts doubt on the notion that Clark is a stalking horse for Hillary Clinton.

When asked who they would support if Hillary enters the race, every candidate loses about half of their supporters to Clinton, except Clark. Only about a quarter of the Clark supporters would bolt if Hillary entered the race.

[Mattforclark]

9. Look, Clark is fading!

Oh, wait, he's within the MOE of 1st?

Glad to see that L-man is down 2, anyway.