Dean #1 In New National Poll; Kerry DROPPING Big

[Closer]

Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll

Dean 20 (12)
Clark 16 (--)
Gephardt 14 (14)
Lieberman 12 (14)
Other 12 (23)
Kerry 10 (20)
Edwards 5 (6)

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[Emboldened Chimp]

1. Kerry will be gone after New Hampshire

I like him, but his campaign simply has no life.

[Bucky]

11. National polls mean nothing

Kerry's doing well in Iowa, tho not so good in New Hampshire. But if he can pull off a surprise in Iowa, he could be back in the game. Personally I think the horserace-by-polling thing is over done. I kinda like the fact that, at this point, any one of the candidates could end up in the Final Three after Super Tuesday.

Dean's in for sure. But of the others, any two of Clark, Edwards, Gephardt, Lieberman, Kerry, or Moseley Braun (who's pulled up to 7% in one recent poll and still has a formidable feminist/Ms Magazine crowd pulling for her) could end up fighting for the nomination after the first round of knock-outs. Of them only Lieberman and Braun won't have staying power. And of course, sadly, Kucinich and Sharpton are not going to get above a blip on the screen but will stay on till after the cows are home, fed, and tucked into bed.

There's also the possibility that we could end up with a two-way race after SuperTuesday. The press will play this as if there are no real "giants" among the candidates, but in fact what we have is possibly the strongest field of equals seen in years.

[economic justice]

14. Oh...but yes it does

It makes a HUGE difference when it comes to raising $$$$$.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

2. Just Like Seabiscuit

Clark jumped ahead initially, now he's letting Dean have a slight lead, only to overtake him at the end!

(Relax, it's light-hearted fun.) ;-)

DTH

[ACPS65]

3. And Dean will be gone after next November.

n/t

[Closer]

4. ewww weee

smell 'dem sour grapes :hi:

[Demobrat]

5. Yeah.

Gone to Washington.

[ozone_man]

7. That's right, gone to the White House.

Going to send Bush packing and take the country back.

[Phelan]

32. I'm sure that's the same thing Dukakis said n/t

[Scott Lee]

26. Pass that blunt over this way

[Woodstock]

28. You hope?

I thought the goal was to elect a Democrat?

[Woodstock]

29. The negative attacks on Dean defined Kerry

That was a mistake. Some can pull off attacks, some just come off like Jan Brady. They should have had him play up his strengths, rather than put him on the attack constantly.

[Bombtrack]

6. Liebermans high showing shows theses polls are still almost meaningless

although no doubt the huge smear job the corporate media did on Kerry don't help things either

[oasis]

9. Lieberman and "other" in a tie. Hmmmmm

:shrug:

[blm]

27. Media smear job is right, yet Kerry & Clark still do best against Bush in

a general match up.

[John_Shadows_1]

8. The slow start killed Kerry...

... and he's undoubtedly a better choice than Clark or Dean in the general election.

[Bombtrack]

10. He's a better choice than Dean, but not necessarily Clark

there are more electoral votes for Clark to work with than Kerry.

They are both about tied for my second preference so I don't think I'm biased in my correction.

[Zynx]

23. If he can get roadkilled by Dean in NH and MA despite massive campaigning

and a homeground advantage in MA, I don't see how he is a great candidate. He is pompous, arrogant, mean, and a whole bunch of other negative personality traits that are no good for a national election. The more people have seen of John Kerry, the less they like him. The more they see of Howard Dean and Wesley Clark, the more they like them. I don't know one Democrat personally who wasn't a Kerry supporter at one point, but I don't know one who is now.

[RetroLounge]

38. undoubtedly?

I doubt...

[childslibrarian]

12. Anyone notice

Clark is 16%? That's great!

[Snellius]

13. Clark and cancer dealt Kerry a mortal blow

The cancer really shock him up for a while. Just as he was getting up to speed. It was too bad. But once the General entered the race, and he could no longer hold the military hero high ground all to himself, Kerry has not been able to regain his momentum.

[economic justice]

15. Cancer?

Did I miss something?

[WilliamPitt]

17. Kerry had surgery for prostate Cancer some months ago

Way back when dorks like us were *really* the only ones paying attention. It took him out of the game for a while and, some think, knocked him off his stride.

[economic justice]

18. Thanks! Did not know that!! <eom>

[RevolutionStartsNow]

16. Agreed about Clark

I think it's clear that Clark has hurt Kerry most. He may have slowed Dean's momentum a bit, but that's not as clear -- if Clark hadn't entered, I would've figured Kerry to jump in the polls as the alternative to Dean.

[pruner]

20. I disagree…

I think Kerry has hurt Kerry the most.

[Freddie Stubbs]

19. I guess all of the good news out of Kerry's campaign over the last week

must have helped him.

[sandnsea]

21. This is Nov 3

He's picked up since then and I'm sure a new poll would show that. Any chance to beat up on Kerry. Sheesh.

[pruner]

24. if you read the polling report correctly…

you'll see that the polling was done through Nov 20.

[Zynx]

25. Don't confuse Kerry people with facts.

You might hurt them. ;)

[sandnsea]

31. I see now

Thanks

[Zomby Woof]

22. a day-to-day obsession with polls

It can be kind of hung-up to get wrapped up in these, when in politics, things can change rapidly. Momentum, coverage, the ill-chosen soundbite - it's like the weather. Fickle as a March wind.

Polls have their purpose, and can be quite useful, but please, it IS only November and the primaries are still many weeks away. Enter cliché about counting and chickens.

[Forkboy]

30. Well said!

I find polls pretty much pointless at this time.It's like a first quarter NBA score.

[in_cog_ni_to]

33. OMG! Look at the General!

:wow: That is awesome news! :bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

[DrFunkenstein]

34. Wow, Kerry Was Over Dean 20-12 The Last Time

That's it, it's time for Kerry to give up. Dean has won it. All is lost. Guess I'll have to vote for Bush just to prove myself right that he will chew Dean up like a dog toy.

[VolcanoJen]

35. This is the first time in this poll that a candidate is beating "Other."

That's pretty significant news, I think.

Looking at the data from the last poll (September 16-18) it appears that Dean, Clark, Gephardt and Lieberman have drawn support away from Kerry, Edwards and Sharpton, respectively. Kerry's dropped 2 points, Edwards and Sharpton have dropped 4 points since September.

Meanwhile, in September the "Other/None/Not sure" response was at 21%; in the new poll, it's at an astonishing 12%! In September, "Other" was leading all other candidates by name.

People are starting to make up their minds. This game is on.

[Ksec]

36. Clark is just finding his stride

I think Dean will be a good vice

[SheilaT]

37. The other misleading aspect of these polls

(the ones that ask people about all the candidates still in the race) is that it divides up the vote in a nearly meaningless way. Personally, I can't imagine that the Lieberman, Kucinich, or Edwards supporters can still seriously think their guy has a chance to win the nomination. But maybe they do, which is why they keep on voting away for their guy, rather than moving to anyone else. It's this multiplicity of candidates that makes Bush look stronger in polls than he really is. I like to think that once we have the nominee figured out, we'll all support him.

[RetroLounge]

39. Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

It's just a poll.

It'll change tomorrow, then a whole new bunch of DU'ers will cite it as proof that THEIR candidate has been annoited.

Chill...

[Octafish]

40. BFD. Sen. Kerry's the best candidate running.

Good Lord Willing, he'll end up Number 1 when it counts — at the convention in Boston and in Washington on Inauguration Day.