Who says it was'nt about the oil?

[bicentennial_baby]

I'm reading "The Hydrogen Economy" by Jeremy Rifkin (2002), and I came upon this little tidbit about which nations hold the world's largest oil reserves:

"The reserve-to-production ratio (R/P) tells the story. The R/P is the number of years that reserves will last at current production rates. In the United States, where more than 60 percent of the recoverable oil has already been produced, the R/P is 10/1. In Norway, the R/P is also 10/1, and in Canada it is 8/1. By contrast, in Iran the R/P is 53/1, in Saudi Arabia 55/1, in the United Arab Emirates 75/1, in Kuwait 116/1, and in Iraq 526/1"

[Norquist Nemesis]

1. Cheney had those numbers

no doubt with his secret energy experts and maps

[Old and In the Way]

2. From the Oil and Gas Journal-

"Production to peak soon
"The world's known and estimated 'yet to find' reserves cannot satisfy even the present level of production of some 74 million b/d beyond 2022. Any growth in global economic activity only serves to increase demand and bring forward the peak year," the report said.
A 1% annual growth in world demand for oil could cause global crude production to peak at 83 million b/d in 2016, said Douglas-Westwood analysts. A 2% growth in demand could trigger a production peak of 87 million b/d by 2011, while 3% growth would move that production peak to as early as 2006, they said.
Zero demand growth would delay the world's oil production peak only until 2022, said the Douglas-Westwood report.
However, the International Energy Agency recently forecast that world oil demand would reach 119 million b/d by 2020.
"Clearly a major supply and demand imbalance is in prospect," the report said. "In short, it seems likely that during the first 25 years of this century, we will witness the beginnings of the end of the age of oil. The discussion is not if it will happen, but when."

[JohnyCanuck]

3. And that is at current production rates.

The demand for oil will continue to grow and create pressures to increase production since our Western capitalist model requires constant growth, and the Asian countries continue to industrialize their own economies in order to allow their own populations a chance at attaining the highly energy and resource intensive Western life style.

LONDON -- Signs of an accelerating global economy, propelled by torrid growth in China, has led the International Energy Agency -- a watchdog for the world's biggest oil-importing countries -- to boost estimates for crude demand for this year and 2004.

In its influential monthly oil market report, the IEA said Thursday that it has increased its forecast for average daily demand growth in 2003 by 170,000 barrels, arguing now that demand will grow this year by 1.28 million barrels a day. The Paris-based agency expects daily oil demand to average 78.6 million barrels in 2003.

<snip>

Chinese oil demand is set to rise by 9 percent this year. At this rate, China will overtake Japan as an oil consumer in the second half of 2003, the agency said.

"At this juncture, China is the engine of oil demand growth with significant room for further expansion in the industrial and transportation sectors," the report said.

Energy Agency Raises Oil Demand Estimates

FTW:How soon before we start to feel the effects of dwindling oil supplies?

Campbell: We already are -- in the form of the threatened U.S. invasion of the Middle East. The U.S. would be importing 90 percent of its oil by 2020 to hold even current demand and access to foreign oil has long been officially declared a vital national interest justifying military intervention. Probable actual physical shortage of all liquid hydrocarbons worldwide won't appear for about 20 years, especially if deepening recession holds down demand. But people are coming to appreciate that peak is imminent and what it means. Some places like the U.S. will face shortage sooner than others. The price is likely to soar as shortage looms, which itself may delay peak.

If the U.S. does invade there will likely be a repeat of Vietnam with many years of fruitless struggle in which the U.S. will be seen as a tyrant and an oppressor, killing all those Arabs. It can't hope to subjugate the place in perpetuity as the people don't surrender easily -- as the Palestinians have shown. So when the U.S. has finally gone, Russia and China will likely be welcomed there to produce whatever is left in the ruins.

FTW: Are the major oil companies currently downsizing? If so why?

Campbell: The majors are merging and downsizing and outsourcing and not investing in new refineries because they know full well that production is set to decline and that the exploration opportunities are getting less and less. Who would drill in 10,000 feet of water if there were anywhere else easier left? But the companies have to sing to the stock market, and merger hides the collapse of the weaker brethren. The staff is purged on merger and the combined budget ends up much less than the sum of the previous components. Besides, a lot of the executives and bankers make a lot of money from the merger.

Colin Campbell on Oil

For more info on the oil/natural gas/energy situation see the articles and interviews etc. posted at:

www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/index-oil_energy.html

[bicentennial_baby]

4. This crap gives me nightmares

I swear, the more I read about it, the more I am in a perpetually bad mood. :mad:

[Old and In the Way]

6. You are absolutely correct.

I think Iraq is probably a thinly veiled chess game with China.....their demands for oil will significantly outstrip our demand in the next decade....I only hope they look at alternative sources, particularly solar/hydro to meet their non-industrial needs. They should look at this as an opportunity not to make the same mistakes we've made in focusing our energy policy (and dependence) around oil.

[Wells]

5. It's about cars, not oil.

Don't believe the hype about the Hydrogen Economy, especially when the first promoted use of hydrogen is to power automobiles. Pure BS!

The over-riding problem with automobiles is NOT their emissions. There are numerous, intractable problems besides emissions that will not be addressed with alternate fuel technologies, including bio-diesel. Good grief.

Why can't people just admit that there's just too many cars, that too many everyday travel distances are becoming impossibly further and further, that most travel is a damn idiotic luxury and raises everyone's cost of living, that automobiles present a severe impediment upon walking, mass transit and bicycling, that cities and 'housing compound' suburbs, so overrun with cars, will not improve in the least with supposedly cleaner cars? What? You don't get it?

[bicentennial_baby]

7. Hi hostile one!

Yes, I get it, fully. I hate cars...if I could, I'd ride a horse to school every day.

[Old and In the Way]

8. That will happen when supply is outstripped by demand.

Once that magic line is crossed, there is no more elasticity for pricing games....only then will substantial changes in behaviour happen.

[A HERETIC I AM]

9. Once the line is crossed...watch out

When the price of a gallon of gas gets consistantly above 3-4 dollars a gallon......

"only then will substantial changes in behaviour happen."
Unfortunately, i think the American public will just tell their government to "Go get us oil" And i think they know that already. The reason Iraq was invaded was yes, for oil, but WHO is going to want it the mostover the next 40 years? Answer?...CHINA. A billion people on the verge of becoming a consumer society the likes of which has never been seen. Wal-Mart is expanding in that country by leaps and bounds. This is the future. The militarization of oil reserves and the U.S. holding the key to the padlock we install.

I have an answer. It was put forth by a Harvard Mathmatics (i think) professor back in the 70's. Gerard K. O'Neill. Solar power. Gathered by orbiting solar collectors and microwaved to earth. Unlimited, free, electricity. THATS where we should go. Not to the middle east, but to the area that is the middle ground between the Earth and the moon.
http://www.l5news.org/

[MojoKrunch]

11. Yup.

Somewhere in last years SciAm an article from a petroleum scientist pretty much predicted that the peak for oil production *world wide* would be reached within the next 5 years.
From there on out the price of oil will only go up as supplies drop.
This was based on known oil fields(which pretty much covers the entire globe), conceivable technoloigical improvements and cost/profit factors.
There is still plenty of oil left in most fields, it is just heavy crude difficult to extract and refine.
The ME represents the highest concentration of light sweet crude easily extracted.

A hopeful avenue, at least until solar power or clean nuclear becomes feasible economically, is hydrogen.
NPR interviewed some guy who said that the US could move to a hydrogen based system within 5 years... of course he was selling his ideas for "windmill ships" to use the wind to process hydrogen from seawater, but still... it is good to know that for less than $5,000 a normal gasoline burning car can be retrofitted to burn hydrogen.

Mojo

[SahaleArm]

10. Control over the middle-east was always about oil *nm*