Cdn Unite the right movement starts to bomb in light of Spencer's bigotry.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

canada.com - Firestorm rages as Harper sacks MP over anti-gay rant
Remarks bolster unite-the-right foes

http://www.canada.com/national/story.asp?id=7C471F0C-AD62-4952-ACF2-64B43A21557B

Globe and Mail - Alliance / Tory merger hits roadblock on gays

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20031128/ALLI28//

What do you think? Has Spencer blown it through bigoted bullshit? Clearly the reason the PC's are in this is because they're broke, and now they have to choose to merge with fascistic fundamentalists. I think a lot of PC members will want to back out, but it's too late now, Alliance members have swamped the PC membership, and I don't see this merger failing. The PC is hoist on its own petard! How sweet.

On edit - a quote from Scott Brison (gay Tory MP)

"While I am supportive of the merger of the two parties, that support is contingent on the result being the creation of a modern conservative party that is fiscally conservative and socially centrist. This will be impossible if the new political party is stigmatized by the same image of intolerance that attached itself to the Reform Party and from which the Canadian Alliance was never able to escape"

Haw Haw!

[Spazito]

1. Harper is in a deliciously difficult position...

He has to kick Spencer out totally, anything less will be seen as support for Spencer's hate mongering yet, if he kicks Spencer out he will tick of the fundamentalists who's support he needs. The timing of this couldn't be better for the Liberals and NDP and worse for the Alliance/Conservatives.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. What Spencer said is believed by many in the CA,

so I can't see Harper ditching him from the party. He should of course be censured by Parliament. I've started analyzing Western seats for the 2004 election, and this is really going to hurt Spencer and help us. Spencer has a majority over the NDP of 161, and as we know, the NDP has rebounded in the polls somewhat since 2000. They'll take his seat.

[Minstrel Boy]

3. The right is in disarray

and, united or not, will be unable to recover in time to mount a credible challenge in the election.

Martin will be a palatable choice for moderate conservatives, particularly if the merger takes and they find their party absorbed by the far-right fringe.

The election will be contended on the centre-left. With the right marginalized and moderate Tories glomming onto Martin, the re-energized NDP will be a safe choice for progressives who otherwise might have strategically voted Liberal.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

4. The right must be broken in it's strongholds, BC,Alta and Sask.

If the NDP can recover (and I think they can), they may retake a couple of seats in Saskatchewan and possibly Kamloops. They'll be in with a shot for the new South Burnaby - New West seat.
This election will be very interesting indeed.

As for Ottawa Centre, Ed Broadbent could pull it off.

[Minstrel Boy]

6. Hoping Broadbent runs

He's only one or two years older than Martin, after all. And parliament's missed him.

I'm curious to see what names Layton can recruit. That should be an indicator as to the realism of the NDP's hopes. He's asked Stephen Lewis apparently, but Lewis alway was a reluctant legislator. And his current work is of more value than sitting as an NDP House critic. And I read Layton expected to talk to Avi Lewis about running (though I don't know if that's a good or bad thing!) I'd rather see Avi's wife, Naomi Klein, as an MP. Give her the trade portfolio.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

7. I can see Naomi Klein taking an urban seat in Vancouver or Toronto.

My knowledge is of the Western provinces, so I don't know exactly where in Toronto, but I can see her appealing to a big chunk of people who may otherwise not vote.

[Minstrel Boy]

9. The NDP believe six Toronto seats are winnable,

and Klein would be a very attractive candidate here. And of course Layton will be a very attractive leader, especially within the city core.

Layton has said he hopes to recruit mayors and councillors to run federally, and it'll be interesting to watch what happens in Toronto. I expect at least his wife, councillor Olivia Chow, will run. It would be the second time. She ran and lost a close one in '97 in the former NDP riding, and her city ward, of Toronto Spadina. Her margin of victory in the last council election was huge, but how much of that she could carry into a federal campaign is debatable.

[SidDithers]

14. I agree completely...

I see moderate PC members moving to support a Paul Martin liberal government, rather than joining with the Progressive Alliance Party of Canada (or whatever it is they're calling themselves this week). The merger should only improve Liberal chances for more Quebec seats in the next election.

Sid

[Spazito]

5. I would LOVE to see the NDP take over official opposition status...

but they would need a major sweep to do it. I do like Jack Layton, he is a go-getter so, if not this upcoming election, hopefully the next one!

[Minstrel Boy]

8. I don't think the NDP will need a major sweep so much as

the Tories/Alliance will need a major collapse. And I think that's in the cards. The less of a threat the right poses, the more attractive the NDP becomes to progressives who would otherwise hedge their votes with the Liberals.

In that event, it will be an overwhelming Liberal majority, with the NDP at 35-45, Conservatives 25-35, BQ 15. For what it's worth, that's what my gut tells me today.

[glarius]

10. The Tories have never recovered from Brian Mulroney's shenanigans

Until Mulroney was Prime Minister the Progressive Conservatives were a viable opposition to the Liberals....His wrong-headed policies which he stubbornly adhered to caused the party to be decimated in the early 90's (I forget which year)and they were left with only 2 members....They have sadly never fully recovered and I don't believe they ever will if they throw in with the extreme right wing Canadian Alliance....I hope they don't join with them, but work to restore their party....We need a viable opposition party.....IMO
edit---I like the NDP as the conscience of the government which has been one of it's worthy functions in the past....

[Screaming Lord Byron]

11. The NDP are a viable opposition again.

If the PC's want to destroy themselves, I'm not going to shed any tears for them.

[glarius]

12. I'd rather see the Canadian Alliance destroy themselves!

:)

[Spazito]

13. Agree!

This merger is a takeover, plain and simple. The policies of the Conservatives will be nowhere on the radar if this happens. It doesn't matter what the Alliance, formerly the Reform, soon to be ?, they will never escape their racist, homophobic, anti-immigrant policies therefore the Canadian public will never elect them to be the ruling party.