New AMR Poll for South Carolina - Dean and Edwards up 2% Clark down 2%

[unfrigginreal]

November 28, 2003
No Clear Front-runner Among Democrats in South Carolina


While General Wesley Clark continues to lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina, the ballot preferences for five of the other eight contenders are close enough to prevent the naming of any clear front-runner in the state according to a survey by the American Research Group. Clark leads in ballot preference with 15% and is followed by John Edwards with 12%, Howard Dean, Joe Lieberman, and Al Sharpton each with 9%, and Dick Gephardt with 7%. Nearly one-third of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided.

Clark 15(17)
Edwards 12(10)
Dean 9(7)
Lieberman 9(8)
Sharpton 9(5)
Gephardt 7(7)
Braun 3(5)
Kerry 3(4)
Kucinich 1(1)
Undecided 32(36)

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/sc/

[pruner]

1. dupe

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=790150

[wyldwolf]

2. I dunno...

If the MOE is more than +/-5, the poll is worthless. If it is less, Clark is the clear frontrunner.

[FrenchieCat]

3. Not only that ....

But Dean has gotten non stop propping from the national media whores who are ignoring Clark....

So Clark is hanging on to the lead "in spite" of the mediawhore's influence....

and Clark has not started advertising there....so it's all good!

[slinkerwink]

5. lol....oh god, that's a pathetic excuse

:evilgrin:

[unfrigginreal]

6. When is the last time Clark was moving up instead of down in a poll? n/t

[FrenchieCat]

7. That would have been NH....

Where Clark went from 4% to 8%....

Oh, but that's right, Dean won the debate....NBC keeps showing the reruns...and I keep asking myself....

If that's a winner (a la Bush winning against Gore).....it only shows that the media is the only one saying that (except his supporters).....that's called "propping"...up.

[unfrigginreal]

9. Well, another possibility on the debate and overall media coverage

is that only 4% to 8% share your view. Perhaps you're not in the majority?

[_Jumper_]

14. That is in NH

NH polls are inaccurate because of the "home field" advantage that Dean and Kerry enjoy there.

[Bread and Circus]

10. If you aren't worried about Clark, then don't worry about him...

Looks like Edwards and Clark are w/in MOE but Dean is
still in single digits and definitely not w/in MOE.

Your original title is also misleading because the 2% variances
are all within MOE and are not necessarily "trends".

But that's ok, we know you are worried about Clark beating Dean.

[Tom Rinaldo]

18. Also the National Polls

In most, if not all, of the recent national polls he is up from the lows of the preceeding polls, when "the word" was Clark's campaign was fizzling. Also, while he dropped 2 points in this poll from the last time it was taken, he still is on top here, and the most recent other SC poll had him further down the pack. The point is, there is still a horce race going on. No one has actually voted yet and these things are still bouncing. (Yes Dean supporters, I recognize that Dean has been doing well in polls lol).

[_Jumper_]

13. Amen

:yourock:

[pruner]

4. not according to the polling company (ARG)

the headline of their press release about this poll is:

No Clear Front-runner Among Democrats in South Carolina

fyi, the MOE is ±4.

[FrenchieCat]

8. Funny how

selective you are as to which polls is important and which is not....

At least they are honest with their headline which makes me trust this poll much more than the Feldman poll that is being heralded on this site.

[pruner]

12. I posted about this poll a few hours ago

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=790150

funny how you ignore things that don't reinforce your biases.

[Zomby Woof]

26. you are correct

The MOE negates Candidate X or Y moving up or down 2 points, because statisticallly, the gains/losses are rendered null and void.

Not that the advocates or adversaries of said candidates won't use it as an excuse for juvenile taunting and adolescent chest-thumping.

[IndianaGreen]

11. Sharpton and Lieberman are polling higher than Kerry (bawahahahaha)

While the undecideds are still large (32%), it is clear that Kerry is NOT going to finish among the top 5 in SC.

Edwards should have won this state hands-down. He is dying...

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[unfrigginreal]

29. Edwards is still leading in the other SC poll

but I agree, he should have had SC sewn up without too much of a fight.

Another interesting number in the poll was Lieberman's slight uptick. If the party conservatives start to question Clark's ability to knock off Dean, then you can bet we'll see an onslaught of pro-Lieberman threads that will start showing up on DU...lol.

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[pruner]

17. while I'm glad that one of threads on this topic has been unlocked…

I'm somewhat saddened that my thread (on this topic), which preceeded this one, was not the one chosen.

:(

[slinkerwink]

19. awww.....

:hug:

[pruner]

20. thanks slinkerwink…

:loveya:

[slinkerwink]

21. you're welcome

:hi:

[HFishbine]

22. Kick

Upon unlocking

[Rose Siding]

23. Dean is opening offices there within the week

He's the last to do so. It's surprising to see him moving up to third in a southern state that he's only visited once.

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/sunnews/news/local/7362106.htm

[pruner]

24. even without an office in state…

it's fair to say that he's got an organization on the ground there vis a vis his grassroots supporters.

[slinkerwink]

27. I've heard that Dean supporters in SC

are working very hard to built a state organization for Dean.

[JaneQPublic]

31. Yep, the grassroots have already formed Dean Meetups in SC

And, as we know, that's half the battle for the Dean campaign.

[AmericanDem]

25. WOW, Clark is still in the lead

wait till he really starts his campaign there

[arewethereyet]

28. The Clark fizzle continues

the gameplan of Edwards continues to bear fruit.

[FrenchieCat]

30. OK.....

Whatever.....

[arewethereyet]

32. in two short words you give the reason that the general will ...

... go back to working for the military industrial complex

[FrenchieCat]

33. Are you referring to moi? Here a better, more accurate SC poll

http://americanresearchgroup.com/sc/

Likely Democratic primary voters Nov Oct Sept Aug April Jan

Carol Moseley Braun 3% 5% 4% 1% 1% NI
Wesley Clark 15% 17% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Howard Dean 9% 7% 6% 5% 2% 2%
John Edwards 12% 10% 16% 10% 7% 8%
Dick Gephardt 7% 7% 5% 8% 9% 11%
John Kerry 3% 4% 5% 6% 8% 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% NI
Joe Lieberman 9% 8% 7% 14% 19% 22%
Al Sharpton 9% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4%
Undecided 32% 36% 42% 48% 47% 51%
NI - Not included

Wesley Clark continues to have the lowest unfavorable rating.

About this survey:

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered voters in South Carolina saying they would definitely vote in the Democratic presidential preference primary.

Sample Dates: November 21-26, 2003

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question wording:

I'm going to read a list of names associated with running for president and I'd like you to tell me if you have ever heard of them before.

The first name is (READ FROM BELOW). Have you ever heard of (NAME) before? IF AWARE, ASK: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (NAME)? (NAMES ROTATED)

Carol Moseley Braun
Wesley Clark
Howard Dean
John Edwards
Dick Gephardt
John Kerry
Dennis Kucinich
Joe Lieberman
Al Sharpton

If the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Preference Primary were being held today between Carol Moseley Braun, Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, or Al Sharpton, for whom would you vote? (NAMES ROTATED)

[pruner]

34. more accurate says you…

ARG does not take voting trends into account and as such the pool of respondents in this poll does not accurately reflect the demographic makeup of the SC electorate.

btw, the poll you cited is the same one this cited in the post that started this thread.

[FrenchieCat]

35. Well ok....on edit, you are correct....

The headline is so deceiving though...remember what I said...

[pruner]

36. I edited my post since you edited yours…

:)

[FrenchieCat]

37. What's a good laugh is that

I posted this poll earlier with an accurate headline...and someone, one of your cohorts, posted it later here with a whole different headline. I guess that's what I call propaganda.....same stuff CNN does....

Although there's been a poll announcing that Edwards was back on top...when this one comes out and it shows that it is not the case....
you all post it still as Clark down 2 pts......

that is "technically" accurate as far as yellow journalism goes...

You are all really something! I'll tell you. You should really apply at CNN....that what those people there do.

See the time on my post......and a headline that is accurate, not "creatively accurate"......
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=93085

[pruner]

38. see post #15

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=93085