We've lost electoral college votes already---according to this analysis.

[Gloria]

http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0311/28/ip.00.html


COSTELLO: The last presidential election offered a refresher course on the electoral college. What will the next election bring? When we come back, how the electoral map has shifted since 2000. And what states will be at the center of attention in the race for the White House?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: With the presidential campaign season heating up, we thought now would be a good time to take a look at all the important electoral college. Matt Smyth of the University of Virginia Center for Politics has been studying recent shifts in electoral votes as a result of the 2000 Census.

When he spoke with Judy recently she asked him how the electoral map has changed since 2000.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MATT SMYTH, UVA CENTER FOR POLITICS: Well you have seen change on the map. Based on the recent census data, there's been a reapportionment of electoral votes among the 50 states. Eighteen total states have seen a change. No states have seen a gain or loss of more than two seats. However, the net shift has been seven seats towards the state's that voted for Bush in 2000.

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: So in other words, because of the moving of population, some states loss representation in Congress, others gained. And that means the electoral college looks different from what it did just three years ago?

SMYTH: Exactly. Bush's margin of victory, which was 271 to 267 has essentially automatically shifted to 278 to 260 before the elections even started.

WOODRUFF: Let's talk about some of the state's that lost representations, that lost numbers in the electoral count. Which ones are they?

SMYTH: There were two Gore states that lost two electoral votes. those were New York and Pennsylvania. New York, which is a Democratic strong hold, Pennsylvania which was a close battle ground in 2000. Those were the only two states that lost two electoral votes. There were several states that lost one vote. Michigan was one, Connecticut, Illinois for example.

WOODRUFF: And what about the states that picked up electoral votes?

SMYTH: Well there were four states that picked up two electoral votes. And all four were Bush states. Texas was one, Florida, Georgia and Arizona.

WOODRUFF: Right now, the polls are showing in these states what? I mean, if you look at all these states and how they broke down before what are the polls showing now?

SMYTH: Right now, the polls have Bush ahead in all four states where they picked up two electoral votes. Arizona just released a poll that shows him with a good sized margin, a margin outside the margin of error. Texas, he's certainly ahead. Florida, he's ahead by small amount. And Georgia he shows to be in the lead as well.

WOODRUFF: So are you saying this is all frozen and this is the way it's going to stay between now and a year from now when people go to the polls?

SMYTH: Not exactly. A lot will change especially once the Democrats have chosen a nominee. Whether or not that nominee is from such a state will certainly impact which way that state leans.

WOODRUFF: But at this point, you're saying if not much were to change and that the Democrats weren't to choose a nominee from one of those states, you're saying Bush would be in good shape. Is that what you're saying?

SMYTH: Right now, he's looking very strong based on that, yes.

WOODRUFF: So all in all, this a reminder to all of us that while the popular vote counts, it's the electoral vote strategy that matters a great deal. And how is that going to play itself during next year's election, do you think?

SMYTH: Well, you're going to see a focus based on states that have a sizable number of electoral votes certainly. As we've heard recently, the Democrats are going to have to focus on the South. It's going to be very difficult to win the election without at least a few Southern states, which they will certainly try to go after. Florida, Arkansas, perhaps even Louisiana.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: And there you have it.

[aquart]

1. Crap on a cracker.

I don't believe a word of it.

[Yupster]

2. Great question by Judy

So you mean it's all frozen and going to stay that way?

Yeah Judy. Everything's set. Cancel the nomination, and the election. Let's all go home.

In her defense, I guess she'd say she was just playing dumb to get the person's information out in simple terms, but that question did get a laugh from me.

[Kathleen04]

9. I think...

that she was trying to ask whether the numbers in each state are subject to change anymore, another census in 1 year could change the them once again. I would suspect that they wouldn't change, at least not significantly, but the man never really answered..

[Cocoa]

3. no Nader factor this time

plus, now everyone knows Bush sucks.

[cosmicdot]

4. But at this point ... So all in all ...

And there you have it.

Give that Judy Woodruff a Rove Bonus ... what a MW ...

[Rose Siding]

5. According to this, we win

http://www.moore-info.com/Poll_Updates/2004%20Election%20%20Why%20Dean%20can%20win%20Sept%2003.htm

scroll down for chart

[Gloria]

7. What is this about the "Democrat base"???

I take it Moore is from the right...

[Rose Siding]

Yes

It's a memo for the GOP explaining how they'd better take Dean seriously, but it had the chart I remembered.

[Rose Siding]

13. Yes

It's a memo for the GOP explaining how they'd better take Dean seriously, but it had the chart I remembered.

[camero]

6. Two Bush states are big magnets for seniors

Florida and Arizona and they are not liking the Medicare Bill.

[elperromagico]

8. This is pretty well-known.

The electoral votes were adjusted after the 2000 Census. It certainly makes the Dem nominee's work harder.

[ShaneGR]

10. johnedwards2004.com has a great electoral interactive map

Check it out, cool stuff.

[mhr]

11. Folks We Are Hosed, No Wonder Rove Is Not Worried!

Between the

250 Million Campaign War Chest,
Lap Dog Media,
Slowly Improving Economy,
Weak Democratic Party, and
Favorable Electoral College,

We don't stand a chance as I see it.

Fascism here we come!

[BenZodiac]

12. elections...

It's amazing actually how few presidential elections look like the last election. There's going to be surprises in this election like any election, and in the end I would bet it looks less like 2000 than many think.

[ima_sinnic]

14. the 2000 Census?

if the neocons are can screw around with voting machines, redistricting, and poll numbers, what's stopping them from tweaking Census data? I mean--TEXAS, FLORIDA--and GEORGIA, where the anomalous 2002 election results occurred?

hey repukes, this is getting a little old.

[newyawker99]

15. Gloria

Per DU copyright rules
please post only 4
paragraphs from the
news source.

Thank you.


NYer99
DU Moderator