An analysis Howard Dean's effect on Democratic Senate and House candidates

[TakebackAmerica]

Senate

Of the 8 closest Senate races, 6 are in states that George Bush won. The other two are in a swing states and Gore states respectively.

The South

If Howard Dean is the nominee expect the GOP to sweep these races or pick up three out of four.

Open Seat (D) North Carolina 56-43 Bush
Bush State

Open Seat (D) South Carolina 57-41 Bush
Bush State

Open Seat (D) Georgia 55-43 Bush
Bush State

Open Seat (D) Florida 49-49 Bush
Bush State

Dean as nominee: GOP gain of four seats. 55-44-1 GOP
Clark as nominee GOP gain of one seat 52-47-1 GOP



Senate seats Democrats must win

Dean will severely damage Democrats in Alaska and Oklahoma.
A weak Dean candidacy could have crippling effect the Democratic nominee in Pennsylvania. Considering the Democratic nature of Illinois, Dean will likely have no effect on the Democratic nominee in Illinois


Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska (appointed) 59-38 Bush
Bush State

Open Seat (R) Oklahoma 60-38 Bush
Bush State

Open Seat (R) Illinois 55-43 Gore
Democratic State

Arlen Specter (R)* Pennsylvania 51-46 Gore

Dean as nominee: Democrats gain one seat. 54-45-1 GOP
Clark as nominee: Democratic gain of two or three seats. 50-49-1 GOP or 50-49-1 Democrats

* Specter is currently battling an unexpectedly tough primary challenge form Rep. Pat Toomey.



House races


Of the 12 closest House races, 10 are in states that George Bush won. The other two are in swing states. None of these races are in states Al Gore won.

The GOP strategy will be to do everything possible to connect Democrats like Jim Matheson and Dennis Moore to Howard Dean. Moderate swing voters who in the routinely vote for “Blue Dogs,” will be turned off by Howard Dean’s perceived liberal agenda. Republicans will seek to capitalize on this by doing everything possible to connect these democrats with Dean.
This trend is similar to 1994 where even the mention of Bill Clinton, hurt Democrats. GOPer’s will try the same tactics they used against Clinton. Expect to see ads showing Democrats like Matheson morphing into Howard Dean. They hope that voters will make the link between the Democrat and Howard Dean’s “militant leftist agenda.” These could give GOP challengers the edge they need to defeat Democratic incumbents. Further adding to the Democrat’s woes is the fact that many of the Democrats pick up opportunity’s are in deep, deep Bush country.
Voters in Indiana, Kentucky and Georgia, who are voting heavily against Dean will not to kick out their Republican Congressman.


Endangered Republican Incumbents who would be helped by Howard Dean being the Democratic nominee:


Anne Northrup- Kentucky 3rd Congressional District 52-48
50-48 Gore
Bush State
John Hostettler- Indiana 8th Congressional District 51-46
56-42 Bush
Bush State
Max Burns- Georgia 12th Congressional District 55-45
54-45 Gore
Bush State
Rick Renzi - Arizona 1st Congressional District 49-46
51-46 Bush
Swing State
Rep. Bill Janklow South Dakota at Large 53-46
60-38 Bush
Bush State

Endangered Democratic Incumbents who could be defeated by Howard Dean being the Democratic nominee

These congressman are currently fighting fore their political lives.
Dean could be the X factor that pushes the GOP challenger over the top.

Dennis Moore- Kansas 3rd Congressional District 50-47
53-42 Bush
Bush State
Jim Matheson- Utah 2nd Congressional District 50-49
67-31 Bush
Bush State
Rodney Alexander- Louisiana 5th Congressional district 50-50 57-40 Bush
Bush State
Jim Marshall Georgia 3rd Congressional district 50-50
51-47 Bush
Bush State
Earl Pomeroy North Dakota at Large 52-48
62-33 Bush
Bush State
Open Seat Kentucky 3rd Congressional district 51-48 (D)
61-37 Bush
Bush State
Tim Holden Pennsylvania 17th Congressional district 51-49
56-41 Bush
Swing state

[pruner]

1. thanks for your…

[seventhson]

2. WTF???

Whose analysis is THAT? Halliburton/Rove's?

[Bombtrack]

10. wow, it only took 2 posts before a Dean opponent was called a republican

I know it's not a new record, but it's nice to see your keeping your game up

[Hippo_Tron]

25. I'm a dean opponent and I think his criticism was perfectly valid...

The author is making some analysis that we can't win the senate with Dean as the nominee by simply breaking it up into the different senate races that he feels we can't win. He doesn't seem to provide any reasoning as to why we can't win those seats other than he doesn't believe that Dean is popular in those states and how close the race was between Gore and Bush in those states. Furthermore he says that we have a better chance of winning these races with Clark as the nominee sort of a "my candidate is better than your candidate thing". With the exception of the Clark bits, the entire post wreaks of a freeper "democrats don't stand a chance at winning the senate if that Dean guy wins" attitude. If he had wanted to post a real piece about why we stand less of a chance of winning the senate with Dean as the nominee, then he should've provided some more indepth information about the elections in those states and should've either left the Clark bit out or added scenarios with other candidates as well. This is simply a Dean bashing post and not a good factual analysis of why we stand less of a chance of winning the senate with Dean as the nominee.

[Prodemsouth]

27. Okay, where is your scenario with Dean as the nominee

I thought what he/she presented was very detailed.

[Eloriel]

42. "detailed" doesn't make it right or accurate

Nor is someone who points out that an analysis is flawed required to come up with a counter-analysis. If I send my restaurant meal back because it doesn't taste right, I'm NOT also required to tell the cook how to make it right. I'm also NOT required to know how to fix my car when I tell the dealer it's got a funny knock going on. Etc.

Eloriel

[jeter]

59. The reasoning is completely flawed

1st, these Senate races have nothing to do with the general presidential election.

Gore lost Florida. Yet we won the 2000 Senate race (open seat, held by a Republican) in a landslide.

Gore lost Missouri. Yet a dead man (Mel Carnahan defeated John Ashcroft).

Gore lost Arkansas. Yet we won Arkansas in the last midterm election convincingly.

We are ahead in every state poll in all four Southern Senate seats.

We actually have good nominees to run in these elections.

There are vulnerable GOP seats up.

- as mentioned: PA, MO, IL. These three could easily go Democratic if the idiot DNC ever get around to recruiting solid candidates.

- Alaska, we have a very popular former governor running.

- Oklahoma, open seat. We won the Oklahoma governorship in 2002 against a popular Republican.

- Colorado, I see this election going our way if we recruit the right candidate. Udall, I believe, is running here.

So if we carry three of the four Southern states, which is probable. That is if we don't carry all four which is possible. And we pick up half those GOP seats 3. Then the Dems win back the Senate, either 52 to 48 (1 independant voting with the Dems) or 53 to 47 (same thing).

Howard Dean or Welsey Clark doesn't matter. The way I see it, the Dems pick up 3 - maybe 4 - Senate seats in the next election.

Jesus, do I ever hate these types of posts. Because they offer nothing constructive. Only stupid analysis based on nothing but defeatist conjuncture.

[TakebackAmerica]

60. I hope you're right.

Good points. But I think they are productive.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

65. A Few Small Points....

Nelson beat McCollum 51% -46%... I'll let others determine if that's a landslide.....

Mel Carnahan's widow rode the sympathy vote to beat John Ashcroft by 50,000 votes... She went on to lose the seat in the next race....

Pryor won in Arkansas.... He was the son of a popular senator and struck the right picth for Arkansans .... He also got to run against a Baptist preacher turned senator who was "outed" for putting the wood to one of his office workers.....

By making global conclusions from these races you are committing the same lapses in logic that you accuse the original poster of...

Merle Black, the dean of southern politics has already said it's going to be tough sledding for Dems in 04 in the south...

I'll go out on a limb... If a Dem is carrying North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida he's on his way to getting four hundred electoral votes....

I don't see that happening...

I will give you Illinois and possibly Alaska but since I can't remember the last Democrat from Alaska to go to the Senate that state gives me pause....

Finally, I don't really have a dog in the nomination fight... I just want my party to do well....

[Yupster]

71. Who's running in Georgia?

Last I heard the party was still looking.

[jeter]

54. I am so sick to death of these defeatist posts

What makes you think Clark would do better? What evidence is there of that? None. They do just as well as each other in the polls. And Dean actually polls better in the south.

This is a crap analysis of desperate fans of a campaign (Clarks) going nowhere.

My father used to say, if you have to tell people how good you are - you can't be that good.

[TakebackAmerica]

56. Howard Dukakis is going to poll better inthe south than Clark....

ya and bigfoot works at Quizno's.

[jeter]

63. It's a fact

Sorry to disappoint you. Want to know why Clark isn't doing well?

Because, his entire candidacy is based on the premise that he can win (and presumably the others can't). When he fails to show that, in polls he does just as well as Dean (a little better in some, a little worse in others), then the whole rationale for his candidacy falls apart.

Then we end up with posts like these. Desperation. That's what I see. It's not enough to promote your candidate as the most winable (which is a stupid argument at anytime) but you must also argue that the other candidates CAN'T win. It becomes negative by its very definition.

It's a bogus analysis. It comes straight from the Democrats, in Washington, who have led us to defeat after defeat. I say let's try something new.

There was a time when I considered supporting Clark. But he simply hasn't impressed me. And these types of arguments only harden my support for Dean. Because I think they are stupid. They are not based on reason, polls, history or even common sense. Only desperation.

Why should I support a desperate candidate?

[jeter]

64. One more thing...about Dukakis.

Since you brought him up. What seats did the GOP pick up in 1988 because of Dukakis? Bush I (in 1988) carried 41 states. Yet the Dems held on to both houses of Congress.

So doesn't your whole reasoning fall apart right there?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

66. I Worked For Buddy McKay's 1988 Senate Race.....

He lost by less than 50,000 votes to Connie Mack 50.1 to4 49.9%.....
while the Duke lost to Papa Bush 62% to 38%....

The defecit was too much for Buddy to overcome....

[Yupster]

72. Agree DemoSinceBirth

Anyone can attract cross-over votes, but there's a limit to how far ahead of the top of the ticket you can run.

Inez Tannenbaum may turn out to be a good example. I think she can get 10 % better than the presidential nominee, but if Bush wins SC by 20 %, I think that's asking too much of Tannenbaum.

Rick Lazio is a good example. He ran way ahead of Bush in NY, but still got buried.

[JNelson6563]

3. What a pant-load

:hurts:

[Bombtrack]

4. the nomination of Dean = republican congressional control for a decade

or more in all probability. And that equals 2 more antonin scalias on the supreme court.

[Zynx]

8. How do you figure? Even if Dean is weak, it won't hurt Congressional races

Mondale was horribly weak and we gained. National candidates have no effect on state races. PERIOD.

[AP]

12. Congressional districts have been gerrymandered to the point

of stalemate. However, the presidental canididate can have a huge effect on who wins in a tight race.

[TakebackAmerica]

15. Exactly!

That's why Hoard Dean could be the X factor in these close races.

[JaneQPublic]

32. And which candidate do you believe could overcome this problem? (nt)

[TakebackAmerica]

33. Wes Clark.

Democrats will not have to run away from Clark. Clark won't "scare" voters in the like of Utah like Dean will.

[DemDogs]

70. Gephardt or Edwards are the only ones who can help everywhere

Clark can't because Clark can't mobilize the African-American vote.

[Bombtrack]

73. that's dumb, and Howdy Doody Gephardt could?

Gephardt is effectively unelectable because of his middle class tax proposal.

The largest group of black don democrats(indys and repubs) are military, former military, and police. You believe that Gephardt( a guy who used to attend council of conservative citizens meetings) would do better among blacks than Clark? Thats' rediculous.

[Bombtrack]

17. the GOP's top senate targets are the carolinas, Georgia, and Florida

Even if Dean didn't have a middle class tax raise as a central issue of his platform, he still would probably have Dukakis' results in the south.

coattails do matter, and we're already facing an uphill battle in the south, without a guy who stereotyped the entire region trying to win his parties nomination

[Prodemsouth]

28. Not any more, that is when local Democrats stood out from the National

party -voters were not as polarized. I have seen Republicans become mores successful every year since 88 of taging local/state Democrats to the national party. I have seen this happen I live in the south. Let me spell it out for you: The Democrats will not be able to afford another Mondale or McGovern- because the party is much weaker than it was in 84 or 88, haven't you noticed that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. As Someone Who Worked On Buddy McKay's 1988 Senate Race I

Disagree....


Papa Bush carried Florida 62%-38% ..... Connie Mack beat Buddy McKay 50.1 to 49.9%

Not only was Buddy hurt by the fact that Dukakis essentially closed his Florida operations in August but he lost the state by 24%...

[AP]

9. That's why Rush was giving him campaign advice.

I don't think Civil Unions and quasi-agnostics are all that popular in any of those states.

[TakebackAmerica]

14. Agreed

Edwards, Clark are the only Democrats who wouldn't hurt congressional D's.

[DemDogs]

69. Agree with Bombtrack (n/t)

[farmbo]

5. And... Dean will accelerate global warming and cause a cancer surge!

:crazy:

Do you actually believe this hoo ha?

Why should anyone else?

[Ellen Forradalom]

6. Please cite your source

so that we can consider the same.

[TakebackAmerica]

16. I wrote this.

[Touchdown]

36. You need to change your sig line.

It doesn't seem that your campaigning for ABB anymore.

What I haven't heard is how you reconcile all those Dean supporters out there who have never voted before, and are no guarantee to be translated to Clark, because of the passion that Dean brings them. These could also vote straight Dem ticket...unless you think Dean can't win the Presidency. Wait...maybe that's what your getting at.:think:

[TakebackAmerica]

38. TD,

I do think Dean can win. I'm just saying Clark will be more popular than Dean in the South and the midwest.

[OKNancy]

53. I can only speak what I know

and that is Oklahoma politics. Let's just say this: Dean won't help the Democrat here. In fact, Brad Carson will probably have to disavow Dean if he has any chance. ( I am no great fan of Carson,by the way, but he IS a Democrat.)

Democrats actually have a good chance of picking up the seat here. Carson is well financed and has the support of various Indian groups in Eastern Oklahoma. His opponent is weak, and not well known outside Oklahoma City.

That said, it will be an uphill battle no matter who the Democrat is.

[TakebackAmerica]

57. Exactly!

"In fact, Brad Carson will probably have to disavow Dean if he has any chance."

Thank you1 This is exactly what I've been trying to say. If their are any Alaska Du'ers, I think they will say something similar to this.

[Touchdown]

68. And I'm asking how do you know this?

You are an Oregonian. How do you know that Howard Dean is such a two dimensional creature that you can condesend to believe that southerners/midwesterners/Alaskans are incapable of connecting with him, or he's incapable of connecting with them? He IS the frontrunner in Iowa, you know.

I'm in Colorado, and the Dems have written this state off for years. I bet that we could come close to taking this state if somebody out there would just BOTHER TO PAY US A VISIT! I am not that different from a midwesterner, since I lived in Missouri for a decade, and got to know those people. It's the assumptions, and the constant pontificating about regions, and are they worth it that I have a problem with. It's not you personally.

[TLM]

37. So you have no source... and just made it up

So it is just as valid as if I were to say that Clark's position on guns will drive off the mid-western swing votes and his anti-regulation postions will drive off the dem base, causing him to lose to Bush, and drag the congress down the crapper with him.

One thing you forgot to factor into your wishful Dean bashing rant is that Dean has a massive grassroots network in most of those states that will be able to shift focus and be a major factor in getting any dems running for congress elected.

[TakebackAmerica]

40. I will try to factor that in.

BTW, this was not a "wishful Dean bashing rant."

I don't think there are many Deanies in Utah. Also Clark will be much harder to paint a a liberal than Dean. Dean has already been stamped a liberal in peoples minds. Remember it's 99% perception.

[TLM]

58. CLark is hard to paint as liberal... because he's a repuke war hawk.

"I don't think there are many Deanies in Utah."

And it would seem that what you THINK has more to do with bashing Dean than with reality.

www.utahfordean.com


"Dean has already been stamped a liberal in peoples minds. Remember it's 99% perception. "

SO you try to excuse bashign based on nothign but your own insistance, by saying that "it's 99% perception." If that is what you truly believe, then way try so hard to spread and promote the flase impression in order to push Clark?

[TakebackAmerica]

61. Wow! 640 people are going to help Matheson.

Ordinary Americans...are not as informed as us. People vote on what they think the candidate is, not what his record is. How many deanies are in the Utah 2nd Congressional District?

[ibegurpard]

7. What is your basis for these claims?

Is it your OPINION that this will happen if Howard Dean is the nominee? It is my OPINION that Howard Dean will play better than most of the other candidates in such states.

[dsc]

11. Have you ever looked up the word analysis?

That means you actually study the races and provide reasons for the numbers.

[poskonig]

13. You ignored turnout and fundraising.

Dean brings huge advantages in these categories other candidates do not. With a nation narrowly divided, turning out Democrats is a necessity. If we could have gotten 50,000 unhappy Democrats off their asses in 2002, we'd have the Senate today. The Bushlite Daschle-Gephardt surrender strategy where we just nuance things to death is not a way to win congressional elections.

[TakebackAmerica]

19. Here you go!

Endangered Republican Incumbents

Anne Northrup- Kentucky 3rd Congressional District 52-48 50-48 Gore
Highly Competitive:

Since her 1996 election, she has survived three Democratic onslaughts. For the 2002 campaign, Democrats recruited Jack Conway. He ran an aggressive campaign against Rep. Northrup. Despite being outspent 2-1, Conway was able to keep this race close throughout. Northrup hammered Conway on his close ties to embattled Governor Paul Patton. On Election Day 2002, she won a narrow victory, 52-48. Her fundraising prowess has helped her hold on to the only Democratic leaning district in Kentucky. This is the only district in Kentucky that Gore carried, and it has a sizeable black and union population. If Democrats put up a strong candidate, they will be in a solid position to reclaim this district.

Update: Jack Conway turned down a rematch with Northup. It now appears Lt. Governor Steven Henry is likely to run for this seat

John Hostettler- Indiana 8th Congressional District 51-46 56-42 Bush
Highly Competitive:

Indiana’s 8th Congressional District was named the “Bloody Eighth” because of its reputation of close elections stemming back to 1984 when Frank McCloskey beat Richard McIntyre by 4 votes, 116,645 to 116,641. This district is the epitome of a swing district. According to the “2002 Almanac of American Politics,” this district at one point during the 1970s elected four congressmen in four successive elections. Since 1994, Rep. Hostettler has survived four close reelection bids. Yet Hostettler has raised a mere $5,018. He is the exact opposite of Northrup, having been out- spent, in two of his last three races. Rep. Hostettler has grown accustom to the close elections in the district. Expect this race to be heavily targeted by Democrats, who have a top notch candidate in Jon Jennings.

Most Vulnerable Republican Freshman

Max Burns- Georgia 12th Congressional District 55-45 54-45 Gore
Highly Competitive:

The father of Max Burns’ opponent, State Senate Majority Leader Charles Walker Sr., created this district for his son, much to the dismay of the voters. Rep. Burns was able to use voter dissatisfaction with Democratic redistricting and President Bush’s popularity to his advantage. On Election Day, Charles Walker Jr. and his father were defeated. The perception of Democratic gerrymandering haunted Georgia Democrats that year. This is the only district in Georgia that Al Gore won that is represented by a non black Democrat. Rep. Burns would be extremely vulnerable against a strong well-financed opponent. This predominantly Democratic district is the wrong place for a conservative like Max Burns. Rep. Burns is the weakest Republican incumbent in America.


Rick Renzi - Arizona 1st Congressional District 49-46 51-46 Bush
Highly Competitive:
Update: Change from Competitive to Highly Competitive
This is a classic swing district. Rep. Renzi dodged a bullet when Steve Udall was upset in the Democratic primary by George Cordova. National democrats were disappointed at Udall’s defeat and were slow to give to Cordova. Rep. Renzi outspent Cordova 2-1. Republicans also poured over four million dollars into this race. Renzi was bolstered by a last minute visit by President Bush. After all the money Republicans spent and Bush’s visit, Renzi only won by 49-46. The result of the election showed how close this swing district really is. If Steve Udall runs, or another strong Democrat gets into this race, it could quickly become one of the closest House races in America. Update: It now appears that Paul Babbitt, Bruce Babbitt’s brother, will run against Rep. Renzi. This development could provide Democrats with the top notch candidate they have sought

Endangered Democratic Incumbents

Dennis Moore- Kansas 3rd Congressional District 50-47 53-42 Bush

Highly Competitive:
The sole Democratic congressman in Kansas is highly endangered. After two close reelection bids, expect Republicans to go aggressively after this district. Against heavy underdog former Air Force pilot Adam Taff, Rep. Moore won by only 50-47. This moderate suburban Republican district is a misfit for a liberal Democrat like Moore. There have been bitter Republican primaries in the last two elections. They have pitted a moderate, electable Republican against an ideological conservative. In both elections the more conservative was chosen over the moderate. If Republicans avoid their annual primary bloodbath and nominate a moderate, this could be the year the Republicans defeat Rep. Moore.


Jim Matheson- Utah 2nd Congressional District 50-49 67-31 Bush

Highly Competitive:
In 2000 Rep. Matheson defeated Republican Derek Smith who had upset embattled Republican incumbent Merrill Cook in the Primary.
Republicans radically changed the lines in this district, taking out most of the metro Salt Lake City areas. On the heels of their successful redistricting, Republicans recruited John Swallow to run against Rep. Matheson.
In a race that went down to the wire, Matheson prevailed by 2,015 votes out of 214,961.If the Republicans have a strong candidate, expect this once again to be one of the tightest races in America.

Most Vulnerable Democratic Freshmen

Rodney Alexander- Louisiana 5th Congressional district 50-50 57-40 Bush

Highly Competitive:
On November 5th, Lee Fletcher defeated Clyde Holloway 24.5 -23.0 to move on to the run-off. Former frontrunner Holloway was still bitter after his loss. He staged a press conference to bash Fletcher, saying, “He is not what this state needs. ….He will do anything to win and he scares me.” One week before the election, a Mason-Dixon poll showed Lee Fletcher leading Rodney Alexander 48-40. On December 7, Rodney Alexander, in a major upset, defeated Lee Fletcher 50.3 -49.7. The increased black turnout due to Sen. Mary Landrieu close re-election battle may have carried Alexander over the top. Republicans are expected to heavily target this race. Bush carried this predominantly conservative district by 21 points in 2000 and with Bush on top of the ticket could make this race too close to call.

Jim Marshall- Georgia 3rd Congressional district 50-50

51-47 Bush

Highly Competitive:
Despite being outspent 2-1, Marshall eked out a victory over Calder Clay III 50.5 -49.5. This was after Democratic redistricters tried to move as many minority voters into swing districts as possible. This was followed by a surge of outrage from voters. They promptly defeated Governor Roy Barnes, electing the first Republican governor in Georgia in 128 years, unseating Senator Max Cleland. The Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader were both swept away in the GOP tide. They elected Phil Gingery and Max Burns to districts specially redistricted for Democrats. Rep. Marshall was lucky escape the Republican tide that had enveloped so many of the state’s Democrats. Bush narrowly carried this swing district, 51-47. Expect this to be one of the top 10 house races of 2004.


Tim Holden: Republican redistricters eliminated Rep. Holden’s district put him in unknown conservative territory and pitted him against veteran GOP congressman George Gekas. Though Bush won this district by 56-41 this turned out to be a terrible mistake for the Republicans. Gekas had not been in an election battle since he was first elected. Gekas seemed stiff and did not campaign well. While Holden knocked doors and ran a strong and aggressive campaign. Despite the GOP sweep, Holden squeaked through on Election Day, 51-49



The Senate
North Carolina: On September 7, 2003, Democratic Senator and Presidential candidate John Edwards announced he would not run for reelection. After Edwards decision, North Carolina Democrats turned to there failed 2002 Senate nominee to Erskine Bowles to run. He will have to face Republican Congressman Richard Burr. My prediction: GOP leaning
Revised Prediction: Toss up

South Carolina: This summer, Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings announced he would not run for reelection. He has been represented South Carolina in the Senate since 1966. Democrats recruited a strong candidate in Inez Tenenbaum. She was able to survive the GOP sweep in 2002 and be reelected State Superintendent of Education with 59% She will face Republican congressman Jim DeMint My Prediction: Toss up.

Georgia: Democrats in Georgia are in disarray after the upset loss of the Governorship and Max Cleland’s Senate seat. When Zell Miller announced that he would not run for reelection Republicans rejoiced. Republicans believe this is the last step before the y gain complete domination of Georgia. Demoralized Democrats were turned down by Andrew Young and this moment have not gotten there first tier, second tier or even third tier candidates to run.
My prediction: Likely GOP pick-up

Oklahoma: After spending 24 years in the Senate, Republican Senator Don Nickles announced he would retire. This is bad news republicans who will now have to defend a previously safe GOP seat. Democratic Congressman Brad Carson a Rhodes Scholar and the House’s only Cherokee Indian is running to replace Nickles. Oklahoma is already looking forward to its first close Senate election in years.
My Prediction: Toss Up



Alaska: In 2002 Frank Murkowski retired from the Senate and ran for governor. He won the gubernatorial election and then promptly appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to his Senate seat. Alaskans were out raged and view this as a form of nepotism. With out any nudging by eager Democrats, Former Governor Tony Knowles jumped into the race this summer. Murkowski may have to face not only Knowles but also vicious primary with angry Republicans. This is another race worth watching.
My Prediction: Toss up

Illinois: Embattled GOP Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring after only one term. The vulnerable Republican Senator probably feared he would lose election. In 2002 Democrats captured the Governor’s mansion for the first time since 1976. Illinois is not only a liberal state it is also trending left. Republicans will need either an extremely bloody Democratic primary or Bush to winning in a landslide, if they hope to hold on to this seat.
My Prediction: Likely Democratic Pickup

States that might have competitive races: Pennsylvania, Washington, California, Louisiana
Florida: Bob Graham is retiring after a failed run for president. Peter Deutch is favored to win the Democratic nomination. Former GOP Rep. Bill McCollum is the most probable GOP candidate. With a Presidential campaign looming and a weak field of Democrats and Republicans this will be a nightmarishly tight election.

My Prediction: Toss Up

[poskonig]

21. Thanks for the data, but....

I'm interested in the relationships people see in the data, not the data itself.

[Bombtrack]

20. if we had candidates that offered more solutions than complaints we'd'v 1

.

[Tom Rinaldo]

18. I would expect Dean supporters to fault your conclusions

They are sweeping afterall, and not baccked by individual reasoned arguments for each call that you make. I have not looked closely at the Congressional races, so I will only make general observations. One of the stronger arguments that favors Dean is the energizing effect he has on the Democratic Party base. I would imagine that there are some Senate races in States that have latent recent Democratic traditions where he might do better than Clark would at turning out the base, which might provide useful coat tails for other Democrats running. On the other hand, in States which have trended Republica for years, but with voters independent minded enough to still elect an occaisional Democrat, I suspect Clark would have longer coat tails. Clark and Dean in either case could count on strong Democratic Parrty base support because DEMOCRATS WANT BUSH OUT!

In the House of Representatives I think the edge definately goes to Clark helping Democratic candidates, because districts have been drawn throughout the country so that the most rabid supporters of each party are clustered to create safe seats for incumbants. Winning a House Seat that isn't froma safe district requires a strong appeal to swing voters and disaffected members of the opposing party, and I think that gives Clark an edge over Dean in helping Democrats get elected from those districts.

[Donna Zen]

22. 2'nd Congressional District Maine

We have a new congressman in our district and it was a very close race. The northern half of the state is republican and recently the 2'nd has been redistricted to be more republican.

I don't see Dean carrying the my fundy part of the state, which really puts Michaud at risk. Well, he was at risk anyway because of the redistricting, but this would make it worse.

When people are doing the delegate counts, it is important to remember that Maine splits its votes. Ditto for North Carolina in 2004.

[TakebackAmerica]

23. Is that for the primary or the general election?

BTW, Thank you for the info on the Maine 2nd. Have the GOP found a good challenger? I hope not!

[NewJerseyDem]

34. I don't think the 2nd is more republican now

There was a possibility of that but it looks like the final outcome doesn't change much in the 2nd district. No major republicans have stepped forward however Kevin Raye, the republican who lost last year might run. He is a moderate who is pro-choice while Michaud is pro-life so that makes the race a little bit more complicated. The district went slightly to Gore and I would guess that Dean's pro-gun positions might help in the district. It does control one electoral vote and has half the influence on another 2 electoral votes so it is very imporant.

http://www.fairvote.org/redistricting/reports/remanual/menews.htm#revised

http://www.cookpolitical.com/display.cfm?edit_id=42

[ibegurpard]

24. Here's the problem with your post.

Your premise (that Howard Dean is going to drag down marginal Democratic candidates) doesn't match your supporting points (which is a bunch of data detailing vulnerable congressional candidates). You assume that it's a given that Howard Dean will drag them down. Not only is it NOT a given, it could be argued that he will be better for them than most of the other candidates. Thanks for all the data but it really has nothing to do with the argument you're trying to make.

[Prodemsouth]

26. Thanks very detailed - those that have responded negative- have done

nothing to refute the logic of this very plausible outlook.

[Rose Siding]

49. I don't see any logic in the premise

It is all totally unfounded speculation. Those are nice lists and numbers but there is no substance to the claim.

There is nothing plausible to dispute.

[TakebackAmerica]

50. P_L,

1. Do you agree that Clark is more popular with soccor moms in Indiana than Dean?
2. Do you agree than an anti Dean tide will hurt Democrats in South Carolina.
3. Do you agree that the states Dean does not enjoy support states with close races?

[Rose Siding]

67. Upon what proof?

Soccer moms, SC and states with close races can all discern that the repubs control everything now and they have broken it.

What I would agree is that the repubs can't be allowed to frame the debate and that we can't be so afraid of losing that we forget what it takes to win.

[Zomby Woof]

29. I can dispute the Renzi claim

I live in his district, and I can tell you, much as I despise Dean, if he gets the nomination, it will have ZERO effect on Renzi's campaign. Why? Because Renzi himself was only elected to his first term by less than 3% of the vote, has already alienated much of his Republican base, and best of all, will be running (most likely) against a pedigreed Democrat of the first order next year: Paul Babbitt. Yes, the brother of Clinton's former Interior Secretary and a former governor of Arizona. Paul is well-respected and trusted here. Dean or no Dean, if Babbitt does get the nod against Renzi, he can win.

I think if this one candidate in your analysis was flawed, I fear your other candidate analyses are too.

I do think that either way, if Dean would ever (I highly doubt he will) make it to the White House, he will be up against a hostile GOP Congress, and those of us who opposed him will try not to say I told you so when he starts selling us down the river.

[Prodemsouth]

30. Okay that is one we don't have to worry about- now how about the rest of

the country?

[Zorra]

31. Oh, me. Oh, my........

The hell with this negative, speculative Rovian Hog$hit. I'm not even a Dean supporter but I sure as heck ain't gonna give the freakin' country away just because Dean gets elected. You know why the right keeps winning?

Because there are a whole bunch of Democrats that either seem to want to be republicans or else they are afraid to stand up for Democratic principles because they are scared of the right.

It's like, ooooo, we can't do that. The right wingers won't like it. Karl Rove will get us. Snivel, snivel and whine.

I'm so tired of hearing this garbage from Democrats.

Let's get out and kick some right wing A$$. Do not be afraid of that man behind the curtain. He is just a bully. Stand up to him, dog slap him a good one, and he will slink back into his hole where he belongs.

(Nice research, by the way.)

[TLM]

43. This is all they've got left....

They can't beat Dean on policy, and the mud they sling does not stick...


So nw the new meme is that Dean either can not win, or he can win but will fill the congress with republicans. These are the same people who said that Dean couldn’t hope to gain enough support to win. Dean who? That was the standard response 10 or 12 months ago, and look at what we have done. We have gone from about 400 people working to get Dean elected nationwide, to over 500,000 people in just a few short months, and those numbers continue to grow by thousands every day. The guy who these bashers said was peaking too soon and would burn out, continues to break fundraising records every quarter, and does so with small donation from hundreds of thousands of people.


Newsflash for those who have been asleep for 4 years... dems in congress are losing and have been losing because they've got their noses up republican asses. Trying to be more republican is a losing strategy. The power elite insiders have been more concerned with focus group issue triangulation that with what is right and what is wrong. Clark is these power elite's last grasp at maintaining a hold on our political system.

And people can see this... which is the main reason Clark is not beating Dean. Clark is the status quo influence selling pandering hawk. He will discourage people from voting because half the people in this country are sick of this crap where the insiders pick the candidate, the insiders buy the candidate and the candidate governs for the insiders.

Dean is wining because he is inspiring these folks to vote again by creating a system in which THEY are the ones who have the power, not some elite DC insiders. Dean brings something new, a new energy and a new methodology for harnessing the power of so many people and focusing the energy of formerly disenfranchised and discouraged people.


What the Dean bashers want to ignore is that once Dean wins the primary and is beating Bush... the Dean machine and organization isn’t just going away. The army of volunteers who got Dean elected will be focusing on their local congressional races as well.

In fact right now at meet ups all over the country local dem office holders for state and federal positions are showing up at meetups. Many realize the powerful organization and fundraising machine we've built. They understand that we'll be a force, if not the force, in getting dems elected in our local areas.

We're not stopping with getting Dean elected.

[TakebackAmerica]

44. yes, but....

How many Dean supporter are in Utah, Louisiana, Kentucky, North Dakota,Georgia, South Carolina ,North Carolina Alaska, Oklahoma and Alaska. We aren't fighting the GOP in Vermont. What we need is a socially moderate, fiscally conservative Democrat.

[NewJerseyDem]

35. Burns and Janklow won't be helped

Janklow is going to be gone. That is just what is goning to happen. Thune will win if he runs and Herseth will win if Thune doesn't run.

Burns has a pretty democratic district. It did vote comfortably for Gore. The district must be pretty liberal then and I don't think that Dean will have much of an influence there. That seat is the Demorats seat to lose. Democrats should have every seat that Gore won in the South just like Republicans should have every seat that Bush won in the northeast.

I am also concerned about the possiblility that Dean will hurt the party long term and in Congress. However, I don't think you can be so definite about it. It is possible that things will change and that Dean won't hurt us come November. We don't know what his campaign will be like for the general election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. There Are Four Open Southern Senate Seats

North Carolina

South Carolina

Georgia

Florida


I'll donate $25.00 to DU if you can provide me with the name of one non partisan political analyst or political science professor who would say that the Democrats are more likely to sweep these southern senate seats than the Republicans.....

All this defensiveness about criticism of individual candidates is self defeating and actually quite laughable if the stakes weren't so high....

Bush has done everything he can to juice the economy for 04 and it seems to have worked and unless the Iraqi resistance mounts a Tet like offensive he goes into this election in the catbird's seat....

But flail away we'll know on November 3rd if your candidate led us and the nation to the Promised Land or Armageddon...

[TakebackAmerica]

45. Well...

Clark will help Bowles in North Carolina, Tenenbaum in South Carolinaand whoever our nominee is in Florida. We are conceding the seat in Georgia to the GOP.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. My

overarching point is that anybody who thinks the Dems don't have an uphill climb in the Red States in 04 has their head up their ass.....

It's going to be Hell for any Dem in the south and border states in 04 though some Dems obviously have a better chance of mitigating the damage than others...

All you have to do is look at voting patterns....


It's not quantum physics....

[TakebackAmerica]

47. Yep...

In the best case scenario D's will pick will have a 50-49-1 lead in the seante. That is after losing in only Georgia and picking up seats in Oklahoma, Alaska and Illinois.
Pennsylvania is the wildcard. If Toomey knocks off Specter we win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. I've Have Seen Analysis

where IL is a sure pick up and perhaps AL....

When is the last time Alaska sent a D to the Senate...


NC, SC, and GA will be real tough....


Again I have seen analysis that only Hollings could hold that seat and even with Hollings it's a pickem and only Zell Miller could hold the Democratic seat.....

I live in FL and I think the Dem has a good shot.... The two wild cards are the top of the Democratic ticket and the Republican nominee... Mel Martinez scares me....

[TakebackAmerica]

52. Has Martinez entered yet?

Inez Tenenbaum is a strong candidate. I hink we will keep South Carolina. North Carolina ia large question mark for me. I don't know if Erskine Bowles has learnt from his mistakes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. No-Martinez Hasn't Entered Yet....

I thought Erskine Bowles ran a good race and if the race was a couple of weeks later he might have won because he was closing the gap....

Don't know much about Inex Tenenbaum but Bush will prolly cary SC big....


The two big variables are the war in Iraq and the economy....

We're not close enough to the election to make an informed prediction other than the "if-then" predictions

If the economy is perceived as improving and the situation in Iraq is managable then * and the R's will have a big year....

[Hippo_Tron]

48. Could be five...

If Breaux retires. However, this will be a close race and isn't guaranteed to either side at the moment.

[quaker bill]

62. There is no factual basis for such an analysis at this time.

Any model will provide the 'desired' result if you play around enough with the input data.

There is insufficient real data available at this time to conduct the sort of analysis you profer.

I must assume that this is a pseudo-intellectual attempt to cloak another Dean bashing flame thread.

Who do you think you are jiving with the cosmic debris?