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Latest NH Poll: No, Your Eyes AREN'T Fooling You

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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:45 PM
Original message
Latest NH Poll: No, Your Eyes AREN'T Fooling You
But I know some here wish they were.

Dean Stretches Lead Over Kerry in New Hampshire Primary to 42% - 12%; Clark in 3rd with 9% in Newest Zogby International.


Yep, that's a 30 Point Lead!

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=763
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:45 PM
Response to Original message
1. holy shit!
:wow: :wow: :wow:
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poskonig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:47 PM
Response to Original message
2. Good news for the Clarkies.
If Clark comes in second in NH, he may get as much media coverage as Dean.
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. Clark will come in second
and in doing so, Clark will finally lay to rest Kerry's political corpse, which is now in rigor mortis and is beginning to look and smell bad.
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Field Of Dreams Donating Member (570 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #7
54. Yep. And then win South Carolina
n/t
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knowledgeispower Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #7
130. Isn't it telling that Kerry is doing so badly in NH?
I mean, if anybody should like the guy, you would think it would be a fellow New England state. But my guess is that they are more intimately knowledgable about Kerry and his political history and thus like him less than most people. And that absolutely retarded Baker comment is not going to help him with anyone.
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Jack Rabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. Not really
If Dean wins that easily, no one will notice who finishes second.

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poskonig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:55 PM
Original message
However,
remember how the Clinton operatives spun their third place finish in NH in 1992?
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Carolina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
39. because NH is not the be all, end all
Clinton lost to Paul Tsongas, Bush 41 lost to Pat Buchanan, and Bush 43 lost to John McCain. Yet look where all three ended ultimately (of course, 43 by corrupt, illegal means).
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Larkspur Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:15 PM
Response to Original message
132. IA and NH are more important this election cycle than in 1992 because
the Primaries are front loaded so that a nominee could be chosen by mid-March.

If Dean wins IA and blows out the competition in NH, he'll have so much momentum and FREE media exposure that he'll steamroll over Clark and the others in the South and West.

And with the help of dignitaries, like Rep Jesse Jackson Jr., who is set to formerly endorse Dean in SC soon, Dean has a great shot to win SC and many Southern states. And of course, Dean has built a Texas grassroots Dem orgainzation that is hungry to humiliate Bush and will do everything they can to win Texas for Dean in that state's primary and work their butts off to make Texas hard for Bush to win in the General Election.

Dean is at least 3 steps ahead of his Democratic competitors and he just keeps leaving them in the dust.
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #10
21. Take a look at a map of New Hampshire.
See what state shares a border with it. Frankly, Dean's success there shouldn't surprise anyone. It's almost like Tom Harkin blowing everyone away in Iowa in 1992. I'm still perplexed as to why the media continue to make this a giant deal. :shrug:
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. *rolls eyes*
then how do you explain Dean's success in IA?
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AWD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #22
26. The ignore button...
....it's your friend. Use it. Learn it. Love it.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:05 PM
Response to Reply #26
31. AWD, I thought of another person from DU running for office.
I don't know their screen name but someone from here is running against Delay.
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:05 PM
Response to Reply #22
30. A good campaign.
I'm not talking about Iowa, though, I'm talking about NH.
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killbotfactory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #21
27. You mean Massachusetts? The one NH shares most of it's media?
Dean's leading there too.
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #27
40. And how much of that is due to his
success in New Hampshire, and the media's constant reference to that? That's my point: the way these things are covered, success in one state is hyped and hyped and hyped, and pretty soon the candidate takes off. Yet that success shouldn't be a surprise in this case. Harkin won Iowa; people yawned. Gephardt won Iowa in 88; people yawned. Neighbor state, strong ties, and so on. Why aren't the same criteria being applied this year?
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killbotfactory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #40
47. Because he was written off early on
Called unelectable, and was at less than 1% in the polls.

Now he's kicking everybody's ass, breaking fundraising records, and is building a large grass roots movement.
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RevolutionStartsNow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:58 AM
Response to Reply #47
93. That's it
If he were just winning in one of these states, esp. NH which is after all bordering Vermont, I would understand the argument being made.

But Dean is winning NH -- in fact trouncing what should be a very strong NH candidate in Kerry -- and winning (or tied) in IA, which should be Geps. He's also leading in several other states, though not my a significant margin because the campaigns haven't heated up in those states yet.

Meanwhile he's a frontrunner in national polls and he's garnering plenty of media support with his unconvential campaign and surprising grassroots success.

To top it off, he's leading in fundraising as of last reports, and probably will blow away the others again this quarter.

It's not just a huge lead in NH, it's all of these things combined.
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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #21
28. Yo
Billy, nice sig! Shows your desperation and fear of Dean. If he were just a blip on the radar, why would you go out of your way to make a pic of him? I LOVE that pic btw, so thanks for posting it constantly!


Take a look at the Clark quotes in my sig. He's not important enough for me to make a photoshop image out of, but I do just LOVE showcasing his hypocrisy and NeoCon'ish ways. And don't you worry, they're MORE to come :hi:
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retyred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #28
58. Hit a nerve did he?
LOL


retyred in fla
“good night paul, wherever you are”

So I read this book
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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #58
66. You mean
Dean's soaring popularity hit a nerve with Billy?

Why yes! I think that's an understatement! :hi:
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Jack_Dawson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:21 AM
Response to Reply #28
86. "Fear of Dean" LOL
I fear the guy who...uhh...faked a back injury and went skiing during a war. Not that I wouldn't do the same thing, but...I'm not running for president against a FOUR STAR GENERAL.
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mrgorth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #86
112. FAKED?
I guess he faked the x-ray too huh?
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KaraokeKarlton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #86
113. Faked an injury? Is that what we call congenital birth defects now?
Edited on Thu Dec-04-03 11:58 AM by KaraokeKarlton
The man was born with a congenital birth defect of the spine. It's not something that incapacitates him, and it doesn't prevent him from skiing or being active. It does, however, prevent him from being able to run carrying a large military backpack at wartime.

What, exactly, does serving in the military during war bring to the table that would help a president do a better job? The experience of killing others? Understanding the loss of life from war? Even those who command troops aren't making decisions on their own. They are following the commands of whoever out ranks them, and there is always someone. They don't make policy, they follow military procedure. Military leaders are programmed to do as they are told and make sure others follow the rules. They have more in common with prison wardens than the president. I'm not saying that's there's anything wrong with doing these things, only that it really doesn't prepare anyone to be president. The closest thing to being president over the US is being governor of a state. That's why governors get elected more often than any other previous office held.
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #86
116. Faked an injury! That's awesome! Please say you're a kerry supporter
He gets nicked in the arm, and since it's his third "purple heart" he uses it as an excuse to get out of the navy early.

I guess you like Clark. FOUR STAR GENERAL! WOW! There shouldn't even be an election!
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poskonig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:05 PM
Response to Reply #21
32. What is up with the subliminal "Dem" attack?
We shouldn't be ripping on the Dem-ocratic Party.

Plus Dean's supporters are bending over backwards to fundraise for representative Boswell, so why one would label the movement "demogogic" is beyond me.
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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. Haven't
you noticed the militaristic/repub characteristics in a certain group of supporters?
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AWD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #34
75. Are you sure....
you noticed the militaristic/repub characteristics in a certain group of supporters?

Are you sure you don't mean "the supporters of a militaristic repub"??
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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:22 AM
Response to Reply #75
87. HEHE
You're killin' me tonight AWD! :hi:
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #32
48. Seriously, you're a Deanite.
Edited on Wed Dec-03-03 11:26 PM by BillyBunter
One of the better ones, true, but a Deanite. Isn't ripping the Dem-o-crat-ic Party what you people are about? You're the true Democrats, the rest of us are Republicans, Republican-lites, Pink tu-tu Democrats, cockroaches, Bush enablers, Bush-lite, crypto- Republicans, Crypto-fascists, and just plain wrong. If not seeming offensive to Democrats is important to you, I think you're supporting the wrong guy.
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poskonig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #48
56. Why do you rip on the Democrats?
Seriously, ripping on the dem-oguery of Dem-ocrats with an extreme picture of Dean helps no one.

The Dean campaign is fundraising for other *Democratic* congressmen right now, beginning with Representative Boswell. It is in the front of Dean's website. Learn: This is much better than raising money for Republicans, like a specific four star general I won't mention.........
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #56
62. Who is ripping on Democrats?
Since when is Dean all Democrats? He's a Democrat, not (thank God) all Democrats.
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AWD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:24 AM
Response to Reply #62
76. Yes, he is a Democrat
Since when is Dean all Democrats? He's a Democrat, not (thank God) all Democrats.

And better yet, he's been one for more than 2 months!
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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #56
63. Billy hates demogoguery so much
he decided to engage in some himself.He's Clark's worst enemy.
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #63
67. You've had 24 hours to look it up, and you still
don't know what the word 'demagogue' means.
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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:18 AM
Response to Reply #67
73. Sure I do
it's a person who makes use of popular prejudices and false claims.

Like you're doing.
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:35 AM
Response to Reply #73
79. Really? Exactly which prejudices and false claims?
And the 'person' is typically a leader, or someone (like Dean) who is striving to achieve a leadership position by employing demagogic tactics ('You've got the power!). That ain't me. So you'd be wrong on two counts.
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janx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #63
80. Man, you're not kidding. If I were Clark and saw this, I
wouldn't like it AT ALL.
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A-Schwarzenegger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #80
82. Sometimes you have to burn down your house
to find your keys.
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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #56
64. Don't worry Poskonig
Billy's sig won't be there in the morning :hi:
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poskonig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #64
74. Ripping on "Dems" like that is uncalled for.
Dean puts the "Dem" in "Demagoguery".... BB still doesn't get that his image is designed to bash Dem-ocrats.
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #74
77. No, it's designed to point out that there is one Democrat
Edited on Thu Dec-04-03 12:36 AM by BillyBunter
who engages in demagoguery -- thus Demagoguery. I rather suspect you know what's going on and are simply playing games at this point.
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CWebster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #48
114. Well, in your case
there is some likely doubt, no doubt.
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coralrf Donating Member (656 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #21
35. Amen...
NH a New England state..in fact one of two that are their own little 'mini england' VT and NH. Is that even 1% of Americans? No it is 0.7%.

Dream on Deanies...
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maxanne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #21
38. take another gander at the map
and notice that NH also shares a border with Massachusetts. A certain other candidate is from there - whose campaign isn't doing dick in NH.
:eyes:

Vermont is actually NOT a point in Dean's favor, in this state.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #38
61. resentment to Massachusetts by Hew Hampshirites? who'd a thought?
compared to the Baystate Vermont is West NH. People resent Kerry just for breathing the same air they do. Sure as hell is true in NH as here at DU.
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maxanne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #61
65. since you aren't from
either NH or Vt - I question your knowledge of this subject.

Kerry had a lot of traction here in the spring. He squandered it. I'm sure you can find a way to blame that on something besides the fact that he's had a crappy campaign - and rolled over too many times for the Republicans - but that is the truth of it.
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KaraokeKarlton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #61
118. Kerry was doing alright in NH until he brought up gun control
That has got to be the single most idiotic move he has made in his entire career. I predicted that his numbers would continue to drop and that he wouldn't even finish in the top 3 as a result. Any Democrat who goes to NH and starts slamming guns or favoring more gun control is never going to win that state. Never. Jean Shaheen should know this better than anyone else as a NH Deomcrat who tried to avoid talking about guns for that very reason. Either he doesn't listen to his staff or someone is giving him bad advice on purpose.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #21
44. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:26 PM
Response to Reply #21
50. Kerry was expected to win NH handily
It appears that Kerry will finish in third place, behind Clark, and he may even finish behind Loserman.
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #50
52. That's true. So there were two 'favored sons,' if you will,
and one got chosen. He's still a favored son.
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maxanne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #52
68. so where are you from, Billy ?
You sure as hell aren't from New Hampshire.

Dean's VT connection is a liability in this fierce redneck homo hating state.
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #68
70. Even the Dems????
Talk about a broad brush.
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maxanne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #70
123. Where did I mention Dems?
I notice you didn't mention where YOU are from. :eyes:
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #68
81. fierce redneck homo haters
are not typically Democrats.
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maxanne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #81
124. and where was it
I said they were?

If you think the majority of folks in NH are Dems, you know even less about this area than it sounds.
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jsw_81 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:35 AM
Response to Reply #21
78. Massachusetts borders New Hampshire
And the Granite State is constantly being bombarded by Boston television and radio. Vermont, on the other hand, doesn't even have much of a media. Yet Dean is soaring and Kerry is collapsing. Isn't politics weird?
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SahaleArm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:16 AM
Response to Reply #78
84. Never read the Globe? Not exactly Kerry friendly.
Edited on Thu Dec-04-03 01:17 AM by SahaleArm
Neither is the rest of the Beantown press. Meanwhile the Vermont press continues to fawn over it's favorite son.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:19 AM
Response to Reply #84
85. Good point. Kerry's getting little help from Boston
He's really taking hits from all sides.
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SahaleArm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:52 AM
Response to Reply #85
91. I really think Kerry's problem is superficial - Charisma
Edited on Thu Dec-04-03 01:54 AM by SahaleArm
That's the feeling I get from talking to people in MA and NH. They don't think he has enough fire to beat Bush.
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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:04 AM
Response to Reply #91
95. I'm hearing the same thing
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SahaleArm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:16 AM
Response to Reply #95
104. Familiarity hurts Kerry.
Edited on Thu Dec-04-03 02:19 AM by SahaleArm
Familiarity breeds contentness in the minds of MA/NH voters. Kerry's not the new kid on the block and that is killing his appeal. The IWR vote is something that's big in DU circles but doesn't resonate as much with average voter who is more interested in fixing the Iraq mess.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #104
115. It's a personality contest
between irrational hatred of Kerry for voting IWR while also failing the personality contest, that can easily cost him 20 points to Dean.
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Scott Lee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #115
128. That's politics. You don't like it, get out.
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:13 AM
Response to Reply #85
102. Sorry, but
doesn't New Hampshire have its own newspapers? And if the Globe is giving him such a hard time, a point I won't disagree with, how is he doing in MA?
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SahaleArm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:18 AM
Response to Reply #102
105. The Boston media dominates most of New Hampshire's...
population centers.
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:20 AM
Response to Reply #105
107. OK
I can even see how the Globe might be more influential with people who aren't even members of his constituency than with people who pay closer attention to his work in the senate. Point taken.
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SahaleArm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:23 AM
Response to Reply #107
108. NH is where MA residents go to buy stuff tax free:) *nm*
*nm*
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KaraokeKarlton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #108
122. They go there to hunt NH's pets, too
Every year we get at least one flatlander shooting someone's dog, sometimes horses and cows. No wonder Massachussetts wants gun control. :eyes:
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maxanne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #84
127. yes,
good thing there is Boston media to tell us dumb hicks in NH how to think. :eyes:

I'm sorry it never occurs to ya'll that we are capable of thought up here. Kerry has made BIG mistakes, and NH is holding him accountable.

Sure he voted for the IWR. Then he gave dopey excuses for it, over and over. Dumb. I knew this was a bad vote at the time - why didn't he?

He voted for No Child Left Behind. Then he came up here and complained about it. Dumb. Again - I knew this was a bad vote at the time - why didn't he?

Gun control. Dumb.

Medicare. He wasn't there for the vote. Not only was he not there, he had 0 leadership. Diane Feinstein voted in favor of the bill - and she's on his steering committee. He couldn't convince her to vote against the bill?? That smacks of lousy leadership.

Of course we can't figure that out for ourselves, up here. Good thing we have the Boston media.
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KaraokeKarlton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #21
111. Now wait a minute, Bunter
Haven't you been trying to say that Dean was an awful governor? If that were true, then our NH neighbors wouldn't like him. Vermont and NH report news from both states on television and written news. NH does know Dean just like they know Kerry. It's clear who they like better. If your theory about the neighboring state issue is true then you are going to have to admit that Dean was a good governor. You can't have it both ways.
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maha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #10
117. The top three finishers stay in the race.
Maybe the top four. And then on to the rest of the primaries, in which Dean may not do so well.

Remember, McCain beat Bush easily in New Hampshire in 2000 (although not by as many points).
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:48 PM
Response to Original message
3. omfg!
That's a HUGE lead! We still can't take NH for granted.....
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killbotfactory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:48 PM
Response to Original message
4. Oh man...
That is pretty.
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. I think I'm seeing pretty lights all over the place....
;-)
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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
5. That's really surprising
Edited on Wed Dec-03-03 10:49 PM by jpgray
With respect to Dean, I think this shows how the campaign is as much a component as the candidate.

edit: Congratulations are due to Dean! I never thought he'd have that kind of lead.
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:37 AM
Response to Reply #5
88. I have tried repeatedly to tell DUers just that very thing
That it's about more than just Dean himself. Even some pundits have now recognized -- and commented on -- the fact that the Dean Campaign is as much a "movement" as a campaign. That's a key to his electability too.

No other campaign, for example, has door-to-door canvassing going on in GEORGIA, for heaven's sake. Dean does. Not thousands, but we're out there nonetheless. In plenty of other states too.

It saddens me that so many people hear some of the things Dean says and apparently "hear them" as if some other politician were saying them. When Dean says, we're going to take back this party, take back the White House, take back Congress, take back the country, he freakin' MEANS it. It's not just campaign talk. And none of that was where he starte out. He said in his June 23 Announcement speech that the campaign changed HIM. He THOUGHT (originally) it was all about policies -- but he found out it was about so much more. He said again in his newest campaign brochure something similar:

Only through the action of each of us, working together in common cause, can great change happen in America.

A year ago, the Dean campaign began as a traditional candidacy for the presidency. We hoped to talk about health care for all, and fiscal responsibility that would benefit everyone. But this campaign has grown above and beyond a discussion of the important issues that concern us. It has become a movement that is allowing the American people to reclaim their political process.

We are not funded by a few large corporate interests giving millions, but by millions of people giving a few dollars. We are relying on millions of Americans to get involved in this election by making phone calls, sending emails, writing letters, knocking on doors, and voting.

This movement offers the American people an opportunity to take back the White House, the Congress, our state legislatures, and our local governments. But this can only be done if you claim your responsibilities and your duties as a citizen.

No one is going to change America for you. You must participate to make it happen. There are three things you can do right now to begin reclaiming our country.


And he's already begun. The "greatest grassroots campaign of the modern era" is already well begun, and he's already started fundraising for the first Congressional candidate of, I'm sure, many to come.

You watch. Better yet, join us. :-)

Eloriel
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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:55 AM
Response to Reply #88
92. Eloriel
you're a GEM :-)
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knowledgeispower Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #92
131. I dig your sig
How can anyone vote for Clark after reading it? He's as two-faced as they come.
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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:06 AM
Response to Reply #88
97. Dean is in my top three
But I honestly can't decide between them yet--for the primary, running a successful campaign isn't as important to me as vetting a candidate's record, analyzing the reality of all his/her speeches and proposals, and really getting an idea if the candidate will do what the campaign says he/she will.

Dean passes muster on those issues. He is in my top three right now on the strength of what I mentioned above. His campaigning skill will be factored in if it is between him and Kerry, for example, or a more inefficient Dem when it comes to campaigning. Because at the end of this thing, we want to win, after all. If Dean is far ahead and is a lock, likely my support will go to Kucinich until the primary ends, and then I will fight for Dean in the GE. If Kerry pulls a *miraculous* turnaround in his campaign and is neck-and-neck with Dean, I will have a tough decision to make in who to support, and the IWR of course will factor in very negatively on Kerry's side.

So it's hard to say right now. But Dean looks good, and I would be pleased to call him my president. With me, however, the same goes for Kerry and Kucinich.
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Nlighten1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:51 PM
Response to Original message
8. All eyes on Dean.
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Khephra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:50 AM
Response to Reply #8
90. Howabout "one eye"
Edited on Thu Dec-04-03 01:51 AM by khephra
;-)
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poskonig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:51 PM
Response to Original message
9. How does Dean keep his unfavorables so low?
Especially with the constant attacks? I mean, 12% unfavorable is incredible!
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bpilgrim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #9
15. ABB?
AnybodyButtBush

peace
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Scott Lee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #9
16. That's what I keep telling ADJHS
The more they attack him, the nastier the attacks are, the more popular Dean gets.

But they don't listen. Oh well. My 17 year old doesn't listen, either.


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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. What is ADJHS? (nt)
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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #17
29. Anti-Dean Junior High School
See Scott,I'm paying attention :)
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ryharrin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:21 PM
Response to Reply #29
41. I always thought it was Junior Hate Squad.
I guess your way is friendlier :)
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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:05 PM
Response to Reply #16
33. Attacking Dean is killing Kerry and Lieberman
for whatever reason it's the kiss of death.Clark has been very smart in not doing so.
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CRYINGWOLFOWITZ Donating Member (246 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:25 AM
Response to Reply #33
110. thou shall never critizise another dem
this is what they get for doing so
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Scott Lee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #110
126. Criticism is great. Mindless day in day out bashing is dumb.
There IS a difference. Even ADJHS knows that.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:52 PM
Response to Original message
11. Poll
I think Dean will win NH, but he may be peaking too soon. In early December before the priamry * was leading John McCain, Mondale was leading Hart and Bradley was leading Gore in some polls. He won't win by that much.
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pruner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Kerry thought Dean was peaking too soon about 2 months ago…
I wonder if he still feels the same way.
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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #11
18. Yeh, you're right
he's peaking too soon :eyes:


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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #11
20. *snickers* hasn't Dean been peaking for months now?
;-)
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ryharrin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #20
43. Yup, since June.
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janx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:18 AM
Response to Reply #20
106. Oh, years.
Years.
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:43 AM
Response to Reply #11
89. He only needs
1 more than the next highest vote getter.

My money's on Dean.

Eloriel
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:52 PM
Response to Original message
12. Kerry's new found voice of passion comes a bit too late
I know he will support the eventual candidate. If Kerry had been saying what Dean has been saying for the last 10 months, Dean would have had a much harder time of it.
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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. That's really the difference, isn't it?
Since I'm much more a "record" guy than a "charisma" or whatever guy, I found relatively little distinction between Dean and Kerry, but their campaigns have been very different.
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poskonig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
19. Kerry needs to exude security, not passion.
Changing his personality every week makes a lot of people uncomfortable with him. He'd be in better shape if he'd just pick one.
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neverforget Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 10:59 PM
Response to Original message
23. Wow! They polled 503 people! The only poll that matters is the one
on election day.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:01 PM
Response to Original message
24. How is Lieberman still growing?
Who are these people? I don't know anyone that knows anyone that is supporting him.
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LittleDannySlowhorse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:13 PM
Response to Reply #24
36. You got me
The man has himself conceded that he gets booed at every debate.

I know nobody who is supporting him, including my elderly Jewish relatives in Miami.

I have never seen a single positive post about him here.

I have no idea why he thinks he can even achieve a 4th place finish somewhere, much less the Democratic nomination. I guess he's clinging to whatever few remnants of glory he still believes he has leftover from the 2000 debacle. Otherwise, I honestly have no idea.
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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:14 PM
Response to Reply #24
37. I live right across the border from NH in Ma
and Joe's ads have been running a lot.They might actually be working,though they crack me up.It's an ad full of McCain supporters from the last election who are now for Joe :D
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RevolutionStartsNow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:04 AM
Response to Reply #37
96. Which sorta proves
the whole Joe "Emergency Republican" Lieberman thing, doesn't it?

I guess he figured he shouldn't fight it anymore. :)
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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:14 AM
Response to Reply #96
103. lol....exactly
he has been assimilated :)
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KaraokeKarlton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #24
121. NH is pretty conservative
So it only makes sense that Lieberman will get some level of support there. He'll probably do better than Kerry in NH. That wouldn't surprise me at all.
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ajacobson Donating Member (828 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:01 PM
Response to Original message
25. That's substantial
I think you have to go back to 1960 for a contested Dem primary with that big a spread.

http://www.politicallibrary.org/NHPrimary1952-1992.htm
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billbuckhead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:21 PM
Response to Reply #25
42. Dean's enough to make you move to Canada.
If Dems are clueless enough to nominate this hoax of a candidate from a ministate of 610,000 white people then America deserves to fail.
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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #42
45. Awwww
you're so sweet and pleasant! :hi:


Just LOVE your posts billbuckhead. When I'm feeling down, I just look for your handle to brighten my day!
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poskonig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #42
46. Nobody deserves to have GW as commander-in-chimp.
Shame on you.
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frank frankly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #42
49. so if Dean wins, you move to Canada?
will you vote for Bush, then, against Dean, so you can stay here?

bizarre.
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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:36 PM
Response to Reply #42
57. do you not like white people?
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #42
60. Weren't the pundits saying the same thing about Clinton in 1992?
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HuckleB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:09 AM
Response to Reply #42
98. So if you live in a small state, you should never aspire to be president?
Hmm. I gotta admit, that just doesn't sit well with me.
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Le Taz Hot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #98
120. Well, I live in a large state,
California. We brought you Nixon, Reagan and Gropenfuerer. We're so proud. :eyes:
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:12 AM
Response to Reply #42
101. OK
so what is your threshhold in terms of a state's population or land mass for viability as a presidential candidate, and how exactly did you come to the conclusion that he size of the state a candidate governed should be a focal point in an election. Finally, how do you translate this into the viability of a candidate who has never governed? Constituency? Is there a specific formula you use?
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tsipple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:26 PM
Response to Reply #25
51. And Remember: Field of NINE Candidates
These poll numbers are simply astonishing considering that there are nine Democratic candidates running.

New Hampshire is still competitive, though. I don't believe these polls numbers really, and they can and do change (as we've already observed).
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:29 PM
Response to Original message
53. We have to be aware of the expectations game...
Say for example, Dean "only" gets 32% and Kerry gets 22%...Kerry wins the expectation game. Dean will be perceived the loser, even though he has won the primary. Clark, of course, has the most to gain. If he does better than 9%, then he will be considered on the upswing...
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Bread and Circus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
55. Bashing aside, Clark is on the rise...and Kerry is on the decline..
So I am happy with the poll.
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Forkboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-03 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #55
59. Yup
these aren't bad numbers for Clark at all at this stage.A second place finish will be excellent for him and give him a push.
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:02 AM
Response to Original message
69. Freepers celebrate Dean success
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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #69
71. And this is
Edited on Thu Dec-04-03 12:05 AM by Closer
assuming the freepers are all-knowing and intelligent?


assuming they're always right?


you sure do put a lot of faith in them :hi:
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:07 AM
Response to Reply #71
72. No, just seeing what the people we face off against in
11 months think about the same article.
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HuckleB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:11 AM
Response to Reply #69
100. Well, they are funny.
The little freeperites, that is.
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creativelcro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:00 AM
Response to Original message
83. We'll find out soon enough who and where.
How about having some bets ? No money, just for the fun of it...
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OneBlueSky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:00 AM
Response to Original message
94. I find it amazing how badly John Kerry is imploding . . .
early on, he was the favorite to win the nomination . . . campaigns are supposed to GAIN voter support, not lose it . . . seems that Kerry's efforts have backfired at every turn . . . this could turn into one of the classic political collapses of all time . . . too bad . . . he coulda been a contendah . . .
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CRYINGWOLFOWITZ Donating Member (246 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:23 AM
Response to Reply #94
109. kerry blew it himself
he voted for PATRIOT, and also iraq, simply because he calculated that it was the wisest move, despite what he really thought.
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 02:09 AM
Response to Original message
99. They must be polling at meetups
that's just unbelievable!

Keep writing letters!
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #99
119. Another poll out today with similar results
Dean Increases Lead As Clark Challenges Kerry for Second Place
Among Democrats in New Hampshire


Receiving a boost from registered Democrats, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has increased his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean now leads with 45%. Senator John Kerry is at 13% and Wesley Clark is at 11%. Ballot preferences for the six other major candidates remain in single digits.

Dean's strength is based on gaining support from registered Democrats. A total of 46% of registered Democrats now say they would vote for Dean, surpassing the 44% of undeclared voters saying they would vote for Dean.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. This sample includes 430 Democrats (72%) and 170 undeclared voters (28%). The interviews were conducted November 30 through December 3, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Ballot preference for Dean is up 7 percentage points from two weeks ago as ballot preference for Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points.

more: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:31 PM
Response to Reply #99
125. For you Mr. Dean - your knocking 'em dead, 'eh?
:toast:
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Scott Lee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 12:50 PM
Response to Original message
129. Amazing. The better Dean does, the more some Dems hate him.
Now the way I see it, gathering all this support is gathering voters. Voters win elections. Can someone explain to me why a Dem candidate that is doing so phenomenally in fundraising and support gathering is getting slimed and bashed on a daily basis by...Democrats?

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TopesJunkie Donating Member (979 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:26 PM
Response to Reply #129
133. It's the old "bash the frontrunner" reflex.
It's natural.
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zanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-03 01:38 PM
Response to Original message
134. A reminder from a New Hampshirite.
In the 2000 Primaries, NH voted for Gore and McCain. You can't go by who WE elect in the Primaries. We're the first, but not the last, state to vote.
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