New ARG Poll NH - Dean 45, Kerry 13, Clark 11

[unfrigginreal]

December 4, 2003
Dean Increases Lead As Clark Challenges Kerry for Second Place
Among Democrats in New Hampshire


Receiving a boost from registered Democrats, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has increased his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean now leads with 45%. Senator John Kerry is at 13% and Wesley Clark is at 11%. Ballot preferences for the six other major candidates remain in single digits.

Dean's strength is based on gaining support from registered Democrats. A total of 46% of registered Democrats now say they would vote for Dean, surpassing the 44% of undeclared voters saying they would vote for Dean.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. This sample includes 430 Democrats (72%) and 170 undeclared voters (28%). The interviews were conducted November 30 through December 3, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Ballot preference for Dean is up 7 percentage points from two weeks ago as ballot preference for Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Breakdown
Dean 45(38)
Kerry 13(17)
Clark 11(7)
Gephardt 5(4)
Lieberman 5(5)
Edwards 3(4)
Kucinich 2(3)
Sharpton 1(0)
Moseley Braun 0(1)
Undecided 15(21)

[THX1138]

1. 32 Point spread?!

Holy crap! Seems to confirm the Zogby poll from yesterday. All these rosey poll numbers are making me think about supporting that Howard Dean fella. Oh wait I already do!

:evilgrin:

[cspiguy]

2. CNN can now call it - we project George W. Bush to be elect...

Dean is a poison pill. I would even rather have Gephardt on the ticket. At least he would take Missouri. Someone like Kerry would be perfect - like Kerry just not Kerry himself. Clark is, well I don't quite know WHAT Clark is. I am depressed.

[Sean Reynolds]

5. So if Kerry is having a hard time winning over Democrats.....

Since Kerry is losing right now in key states, it's obvious he's having problems winning over Democrats. So if he can't win over Dems, how do you expect him to win over other Democrats, moderates AND liberals in the election if he were to get the nod?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. Kerry's only having problems with Bush hating peacenik Democrats

who love Dean for fitting the bill. But Dean is a disaster for the national electorate.

[helleborient]

9. Saying the same thing over and over with no evidence...

Certainly doesn't make it true...

Particularly in the crush of people out there working for Dean, Republicans switching to his support, independents supporting him...and the best fundraising any Democrat has ever had.

[CMT]

14. that's not true

Dean leads among democrats across the board in NH. I think if someone can't do well among your own party that it doesn't make him a strong general election candidate.

[Forkboy]

25. "peacenik Democrats"

would that make you a warmongering Democrat?

Such disdain for "peaceniks" is disturbing,as is using the demeaning language of the right.

[TLM]

26. Kerry is having problems with the dem base...

Maybe he should just "get over it and stop crying in his tea cup?"


Kerry pissed off the base by kissing W's ass for 3 years and being a fence sitter more focused on his career than what was right or wrong.

Now Kerry is paying the price for that.

[bryant69]

3. Well, the counter argument

Of course he's going to win New Hampshire. He's basically from there. It's kind of like when the US was allowed to play pro-Basketball players in the olympics. The real story was who was going to come in second, not first. Same here. The New Hampshire Primary will show, if they haven't figured it out by then, those candidates who don't have a prayer that its time to drop out.

We'll see how Dean (and Gephardt who has a similar advantage in Iowa) does in South Carolina.

Bryant
Checit it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[Freddie Stubbs]

6. Kerry is from a neighboring state also

And he ran millions of dollars in TV ads on Boston TV stations last year despite running agianst a sacrificial lamb Republican (people in southern NH get Boston stations). Apperently it wasn't a very good investment.

[helleborient]

10. How do you explain the lead in Iowa?

And the endorsement today of the lt. governor of Illinois?

Gets harder and harder to explain when the campaign just keeps rolling!

[CMT]

15. what if Dean wins Iowa too?

he is leading in the most recent polls. Also Dean does have strength in the south. In Oklahoma a poll today has Lieberman leading with 10% and Clark and Dean tied at 9%. In Florida, Dean is right behind Lieberman by only four-points. In North Carolina, he is running second behind homestater Edwards. Dean is leading in most recent polls in Arizona.

[cjbuchanan]

24. Funny how things have changed

A year ago people where Kerry would win because he was from the area. Now people say that Dean is going to win because he is from the area. The only person from the area that people have not said is going to win is Lieberman.

As recently as July, Kerry was still in the lead in NH. The fact that Dean has turning what was suppose to be a slug fest into a blow away is big news.

The battle for second will only matter if Kerry does not end up in that role. Anyone not named Kerry that gets the number 2 spot will get a big boost.

The fact that people are now dismissing a possible win by Dean in NH shows just how strong his campaign has become.

Love him or hate him, you have to admit Dean is running a strong race.

[returnable]

4. Kick for Clark!

Coupled with the latest Zogby poll, this is very good news - he seems poised to take second place :toast:

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. Only 2 points behind Kerry?

Yup, he'll take second! Excellent news! Go General! :bounce:

[helleborient]

11. Yes, good news for Clark (n/t)

[Kahuna]

16. Yep! That's all we need is second to march into the south!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[Forkboy]

27. Second place would be excellent for Clark

He would gain some good momentum from that.

[joefree1]

12. A buddy tried to convince me to support Clark

He said Clark will get Republican votes. And for that I'm supposed to vote for this Newbie Democrat?

Sorry, I think Dean will get most people's vote cause we know where he stands. We know where he's been and we know where he's going. He's got the mojo.

People Powered Howard.

[CMT]

13. now I see why this pollster

stated yesterday that Kerry is in danger of not even coming in second. Results are earily similar to Zogby.

[Kahuna]

17. No wonder Kerry was whining yesterday about...

Clark "stealing" his idea for an ad.

[returnable]

19. I'm surprised Kerry didn't accuse Clark...

...of stealing his idea about getting wounded in combat. :hi:

[Bread and Circus]

18. Clark may take 2nd place yet....

[CMT]

20. The favorable ratings of the 15% undecideds is very telling too

15 percent are undecided but among these 15% Dean has a 78% favorable rating--higher than his overall favorable rating of 69% and Kerry has a favorable rating of 56% and Clark 44%. So it looks like if this continues that Dean is poised to gain even more ground given his strong favorable rating among undecideds.

[DakotaDemocrat]

21. Congrats to Dean...

So does that mean he gets 43% of the delegates available?

How many delegates are up for grabs there - 27?

Is the 15% threshold still there?

[cjbuchanan]

22. So the battle might be for second

If things don't change, and fast, for Kerry, I think more of his support will end up going Clark's way. People in NH will see that Kerry is done. So if they want to stop Dean, they will need to give someone else their vote. Clark seems to be in the best spot to get those votes.

This will help Clark going into SC. Does that mean Edwards will start firing on Clark?

[TheDonkey]

23. If Gep gets Iowa, Dean NH..

and Clark with a 2nd might give him the boost to top in South Carolina and sail to victory. I sure hope Clark can pull it off.

Even though I'm sad Kerry's campaign just never clicked.