Global Warming: Four Degrees of Bad News

[G_j]

The Four Degrees: How Europe's Hottest Summer Shows Global Warming is Transforming Our World

By Michael McCarthy, Environment Editor
08 December 2003

http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/story.jsp?story=471135

It was the summer, scientists now realise, when global warming at last made itself unmistakably felt.

We knew that summer 2003 was remarkable: Britain experienced its record high temperature and continental Europe saw forest fires raging out of control, great rivers drying to a trickle and thousands of heat-related deaths. But just how remarkable is only now becoming clear.

The three months of June, July and August were the warmest ever recorded in western and central Europe, with record national highs in Portugal, Germany and Switzerland as well as in Britain. And they were the warmest by a very long way.
Over a great rectangular block of the earth stretching from west of Paris to northern Italy, taking in Switzerland and southern Germany, the average temperature for the summer months was 3.78C above the long-term norm, said the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia in Norwich, which is one of the world's leading institutions for the monitoring and analysis of temperature records.

That excess might not seem a lot until you are aware of the context - but then you realise it is enormous. There is nothing like this in previous data, anywhere.
..more...

[tom_paine]

1. Good article and yes, a tiny taste of things to come...

[hedda_foil]

2. That's 4 degrees Centigrade, not Fahrenheit!

Huge, and terrifying.

[Vitruvius]

21. i.e. 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit.

with more to come.

[Logansquare]

3. 106.7 F high in Switzerland!

OK, that's really disturbing.

[G_j]

4. links

Also, check out the web site links at the bottom of the article for National Climate Data Center graphs comparing last summer's temperatures in Europe to other summers, and last years global average temperatures to global average temperatures of other years (beginning with the year 1880).

[G_j]

5. Report Warns There's 'No Doubt' Industry is Primary Cause

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/1204-04.htm

Published on Thursday, December 4, 2003 by the San Francisco Chronicle

Climate Change Laid to Humans
Report Warns There's 'No Doubt' Industry is Primary Cause

by David Perlman

New evidence found by teams of climate researchers leaves no doubt that industrial emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for increasing global temperatures -- an ominous trend that has speeded up in the past 50 years and threatens to continue for centuries, according to a report by two of the nation's leading atmospheric scientists.

The two government experts said climate change "may prove to be humanity's greatest challenge" and warned that "it is very unlikely to be adequately addressed without greatly improved international cooperation and action."Thomas Karl, a meteorologist at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., and Kevin Trenberth, chief of the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., are publishing their analysis in Friday's edition of the journal Science.
...more...

[opihimoimoi]

6. This should be rammed down Rush Limpballs throat

It was he most of all that led the nation into denying GW was occuring. Like he was a scientist. He thought and still does, the data is flawed and we should go on as usual. Fuck that boil ass idiot.

[G_j]

7. Rush would tell his listeners the world is flat

and not bat an eye. :eyes:

[G_j]

8. Melting Ice 'Will Swamp Capitals'

..I know, I know, I'm fixated on the fact that that we are in BIG trouble...
:shrug:
------------
Melting Ice 'Will Swamp Capitals'

http://www.truthout.org/docs_03/120903H.shtml

     By Geoffrey Lean
     Independent UK
     Sunday 07 December 2003

     Measures to fight global warming will have to be at least four times stronger than the Kyoto Protocol if they are to avoid the melting of the polar ice caps, inundating central London and many of the world's biggest cities, concludes a new official report.

     The report, by a German government body, says that even if it is fully implemented, the protocol will only have a "marginal attenuating effect" on the climate change. But last week even this was thrown into doubt amid contradictory signals from the Russian government as to whether it will allow the treaty to come into effect.

     Global warming already kills 150,000 people a year worldwide and the rate of climate change is soon likely to exceed anything the planet has seen "in the last million years" says the report, produced by the German Advisory Council on Global Change for a meeting of the world's environment ministers to consider the future of the treaty in Milan this week.
    
It concludes that the protocol must urgently be brought into force, but only as a first step, insisting that "catastrophic" climate change "can now only be prevented if climate protection targets are set at substantially higher levels than those agreed internationally until now".
...more...

[Stone_Spirits]

9. OUCH!!

but can't we just pretend this is not happening? Oh, that's right we already are. :-(

[G_j]

10. sssshhhhhhhhhhhhh.........

[Vitruvius]

22. Worse still, "Another risk is the so-called "runaway greenhouse effect"

where rising temperatures lead to the release of huge reservoirs methane stored in permafrost and the oceans, adding to global warming and starting a self-reinforcing cycle that would eventually make the earth uninhabitable.

To avoid such catastrophe, the report says that industrialised countries will have to cut emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide by at least 20 per cent by 2020, and by up to 60 per cent by 2050. The Kyoto Protocol would at best cut them by 5 per cent by 2012 <SNIP> In the meantime the world looks as if it will greatly exceed the targets; <SNIP> global emissions of greenhouse gases could increase by 75 per cent by 2020, "putting the world well on the way to doomsday".

---------------- ----

FYI, methane is an even worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide; the solubility of methane in water decreases as the temperature is increased; hence increasing the temperature of the oceans can release enormous quantities of methane, causing further warming, releasing more methane, and possibly leading to a runaway greenhouse effect.

Will we end up like Venus -- with a surface temperature that melts lead? The answer is: nobody knows; the research hasn't been done yet. But back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that we might.

I'm optimistic; I think we might have enough time after the problems become obvious and undeniable to avoid pushing things to utter disaster.

But in the meantime, a lot of poor people living near the equator will pay dearly. With the global warming that is already "locked in", enough of the ice caps will melt to submerge Bangladesh. They're gone. Africa will become almost uninhabitable, at best. And so on.

And the worst of it is: the people living near the equator who will pay first and worst for global warming had nothing to do with creating it. We did it, they will pay.


P.S: I suspect that within our lifetimes, international law may consider our reckless burning of fossil fuels, our reckless contributions to global warming to be acts of aggression; acts of war against the whole world.

[G_j]

23. excellent post

thank you for helping us to understand more about methane.

I was shocked to read that while we need to be decreasing green house emmissions, they may actually increase by 75%!

How do we make the urgency of the situation household knowledge? Will it take overwhelming and continuing disasters before the media and political leadership are forced to put this front and center? It appears that will be the case. Certainly 35,000 deaths in Europe have demanded attention there. Many of the recent articles on Global Warming have been in the European press.
They are also losing their ski resorts, which prompted some media attention.... :-(

[G_j]

11. kick

[OldEurope]

12. " Whaddyamean:Global Warming? It was just in Europe.

´t was Gods punishment to the mean French and Germans who hate us for our freedom!"

\ end of sarcasm \

:silly:

[Nile]

13. Do not know about that but I am freezing my butt off right now...

in the U.S..

[opihimoimoi]

14. This topic is of EXTREME IMPORTANCE and yet after 1 1/2 days

it languishes with 2 doz posts. Another thread re anger.reservations of the early Dean endorsement gets over 200.

People just don hardly care.

I am hoping people are thinking Dean(whoever wins) will overturn these environmental problems with vigor/

A :kick: for this thread, may it live on for a long time.

Come, we go pray for this one. It appears it needs it.

[G_j]

18. It reminds me of approaching the subject

of writing a will. Most of us would rather not be thinking about our death and put it off. In this case though, we are talking about the death of our support system.


Also, it's hard to know what to say in terms of working towards a solution. As the last article I included points out, we need to be taking drastic actions beyond what anyone seems prepared to do.


This ties in with the fact that we have already 'peaked' as far as the world's oil. We need to understand that although the PNAC/BFEE gang denies GW, they are VERY aware of it. They realise we are facing a 'perfect storm' and it's not that far off. It has to do with diminishing oil, changing climate and water. When the shit hits the fan they want to be in 'control'.

Though it is frightening to think about that perfect storm it is at our door step right now.

But rather than being paralized with dread, let's hope we can do some big time brain storming.

We do need to oust Bush and put extreme pressure on our leaders to lead the world by example. Unfortunately that means individuals makng sacrifises also, something politicians never mention anymore. Industry (hey that's those corprations agian!) is the main culprit and the environmental policies of the next pesident will be crucial to the future of the planet.

end of rant...
--------

[ElsewheresDaughter]

15. last year everyone in DC was freaking & yapping "what global warming?...."

because they got all that snow....but none of the morans even once concidered that neither alaska nor canada got even a dusting last winter...my friends in Montreal saw the grass in there yards all winter...no snow...it freaked them out

[muriel_volestrangler]

17. Didn't you know?

Bush's return to the Moon is the start of a plan to move the Moon to geostationary orbit over Africa. This would give Europe and Africa a permanent high tide, and America a low tide. Then global warming really would be Someone Else's Problem to the Americans.

[SpaceCatMeetsMars]

16. It seems like most people

that I've discussed this topic with believe the global warming is a serious concern, even the Republicans. But the disconnect comes when you try to talk about what can be done about it. People seem to feel so powerless that they will just accept it as inevitable, rather than insist on change.

It's wierd how people will say something like, "Oh I just don't know what will happen in 20 or 50 years...." Why are they in such denial when it will affect their kids and grandkids?

[OldEurope]

19. Laziness. And the confidence, that they live in God´s own country.

So why should they do anything, isn´t it God´s will?
Earnestly, most people cannot think in decades. They don´t believe in any effect, that they can´t see immediately. So it´s easier to do nothing.
:scared:



edit for typo

[opihimoimoi]

20. Perhaps its a combination of the reasons expressed

In addition, something I have noticed, people often think in terms of THEIR capacity, meaning if they cannot come up with a plausible solution/suggestion, they often go the negative route. "Oh theres nothing that cannot be done abouit it". If they don't believe, then its denial.

We need a serious attempt at resolving our differences on this subject and get off the dime.

[G_j]

24. If only everyone could experience the

joy of working together, each just doing what they can, in a community effort. We are all on the same "space ship".

[patdem]

26. I recall seeing a long drive with stands of huge live oaks

their branches creating a tunnel of shade. I recall thinking the people who planted those trees knew they would never see the results 100 years later but had a vision for the future of their family, which I am sure they believed would be the beneficiaries of their good will. I was truly awed at the generosity of that generation to the next and the next and the next. Now we live in quaters of years. So very sad!

[Kurovski]

25. Swamped capitols=Noah's ark II

Can you guess who will embrace this news as a "sign"?

[G_j]

27. unfortunately, James Watt types

still hold high places in our government.

[muriel_volestrangler]

28. are you saying that all industialization

was a bad move? We'd have to give up a lot - the computers we type this on for a start.

[G_j]

29. of course not

but we need to use that very technology to create clean and sustainable alternatives. It is possible.

[muriel_volestrangler]

30. That's a relief

by singling him out, I thought you were attacking the entire Industrial Revolution.

Yes, I agree we need sustainability. The era of fooling ourselves the Earth is an infinite mine and dustbin is over.

[G_j]

31. different Watt

I was talking about the 'born again' James Watt who Reagan appointed to head the EPA. :-)

[G_j]

32. kick