Basis for "He can't win the South" Argument?

[usregimechange]

If Dean is in fact weak in southern states polls would indicate it. Let's take a serious honest look at that. How is Dean doing in the south now?

[grannylib]

1. Exactly the point/question I just brought up in another thread...let's

see what we can find...

[Bucky]

2. In party primary polls he does good, but < 20%

In general electorate surveys he bites shit against Bush. And this is before the "gay marriage", "tax increase", "angry and unstable", and "draft dodger" smears have taken their toll. If Dean is nominated we'll lose everything between the Mississippi and Potomac Rivers.

Then we'll lose the western "swing" states of Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada.

Then we'll lose the Rust Belt states of Ohio, Michigan, and West Virginia.

Then we'll lose the Midwest states of Minnesota, Iowa, and maybe even Wisconsin.

Then we might lose Pennsylvania.

But on the plus side, New Hampshire is a definite pick up.

Which will make it easier to handle it when we lose Connecticut.

[TacticalPeek]

3. Dean will carry the same Southern states that Dukakis did.

:(

[carpetbagger]

7. I don't know about West Virginia.

Dean will have to run a perfect campaign to carry the state. It's possible, but he's got to do everything right.

[burning bush]

4. You should really try to contain all that enthusiasm

it might work against you, ya know?

:)

[Ediacara]

5. I'm sorry

but your run-on sentance didn't make much sense.

[liberalcapitalist]

14. unless they redistrict Detroit to be part of Cali, you're not losing MI

n/t

[bearfartinthewoods]

19. GOD, GUNS and GAYS

aren't just a big deal in the south. come to PA and see that.

i live in a semi-rural area. in a five mile radius, there are 2 gas stations, three gun stores and six churches. telling these people to forget about their God or their guns will not sell.

[AnnitaR]

6. Gore couldn't win here in TN... Dean can't either!

It's that simple. Dean has no chance in TN. If Gore could have won here he would be our President now. Florida wouldn't have mattered.

I'm not a Dean hater. I supported him early on. However, IMHO Clark is the only candidate that has a shot at winning here in TN.

[ScotTissue]

8. Gore didn't win a single Southern state.

Would Dean do worse?

[AnnitaR]

9. That's my point!

Gore didn't win a single southern state!!!

"Would Dean do worse" you ask? No. But can he do better?

NO! He cannot.

Which will put us in the same hell we are in now! Chimpy still there destroying this country for 4 more years!

[liberalcapitalist]

15. what about Florida?

n/t

[pruner]

10. let's see how everyone's doing…

State leaders, polls since 11/10:
Dean: 8 states (DC, IA, NH, SC, MA, NY, FL, NJ)
Lieberman: 3 states (DE, OK, CT)
Edwards: 1 state (NC)
Clark, Gephardt, Kerry: 0

State leaders, all polls:
Dean: 16 (DC, IA, NH, AZ, NM, SC, MI, ME, WI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, FL, NJ)
Lieberman: 5.5 (DE, OK, TN(t), CT, OH, PA)
Clark: 3.5 (TN(t), CA, GA, AL)
Gephardt: 2 (MO, IL)
Edwards: 1 (NC)
Kerry: 0

http://ca-pol-junkie.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/7/55534/5196

[Melodybe]

11. Of the people I talk to Dean is the favorite of the Dems

My repub father-in-law likes him b/c he is smart and a Washington outsider. Not too many of the folks I know would vote for any of the Washington Dems. However, the massive amount of campaigning we are about to do here in Mississippi will be unheard of. I am going to register people to vote at all of the surrounding high schools and I am currently talking to quite a few black churches to make sure people are registered and to enlist their help. Black voters in the Delta have been disenfranchised for years and I am talking to plenty of people to mobilize them. I am printing up important articles and I have a friend who has unlimited free printing and he as agreed to print up hundreds of copies for me. We will have a table in front of the University twice a month from now until the election and I plan on getting in touch with the college Democrats at EVERY university in Mississippi to do the same. We have big plans and lucky for me if I put my mind to it I can get things DONE. I have about 50 people so far to help and we get more every time people see us.

[Phelan]

12. As a Dem from a fellow southern state

There is a law of diminishing returns that has been observed by some research Political Scientists about the percentage of black populations in a southern state and the likelyhood of the whole state voting for a democratic presidential candidate. (or even statewide elections)
They discovered a law of diminishing returns, I think its somewhere at 20 or so % of the population (possibly 15% I really don't remember.) It was observed that whites in states with high percentages of black voters are more likely to be repugs so since statistically whites are much more likely to vote than blacks, especially in the south, repugs have a huge advantage in southern states through this.

Grassroots movements such as yours are the only way to break this mold, but be aware that it will be a long uphill battle... I wish you the best of luck...

[loyalsister]

16. Funny thing about MO

I have heard it called the "northernmost southern state." It looks like Gep is counting on the cities to win. He knows he won't win with rural\"southern" voters because of his record on gun control. Those districts do often vote Democratic locally, though. This tells me Dean might actually have a better shot at Missouri than Gep. BECAUSE of the "southern" voters.
Keep in mind the boot heel of Missouri IS deep south. They even grow cotton down there.

[bearfartinthewoods]

20. see what i mean about PA...Liebreman leads for crisakes

you think support for lieberman will go via gore to dean???

show me the numbers of how we win without PA??

THINK!!!!!!!

[loyalsister]

13. Small towns

Dean's message regarding the "American community" should play well in the south. A lot of people in the south live in small towns, and that part of his campaign should resonate with many people who do. With the added bonus of not alienating them on guns, I really think people may be underestimating his ability to woo voters in the south.

[DemBones DemBones]

17. Do you live in the South?

[mikehiggins]

18. Would polls indicate it? Not if they were of Democratic

primary voters. In terms of overall voters, it hardly seems likely that Doc brings anything new to the table that would change the recent history of voting in the region.

Sure, its interesting to have a Democratic candidate who has a good NRA rating, but the Vermont civil union thing more than offsets that one.