We are going to lose in 04 and I never in my life more wanted to be wrong:

[karlschneider]

1. The stock market is going bananas. The -reasons- (another whole discussion) are irrelevant, the numbers are "good news" to far too many people, some of whom don't even have any investments.

2. There is nothing but divisiveness in the Democratic party. Don't believe me?...just read the DU threads.

3. Most American voters are not in tune with true progressive, liberal values. Yes, it sucks, but that's the facts, Jack.

4. Chimpy has a huge fundamentalist/right-wingnut base that is on a roll. Witness the 2002 elections.

5. The GOP has almost total control over the voting apparatus that will be used in 04.

6. Although there seems to be a lot of internet activism (which we see mostly from our own perspective from DU and similar sites), it is in the greater context, insular and doesn't resonate with the larger body politic.

7. Feel free to dispute any of these, I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong...

:eyes:

[Jacobin]

1. only if James Baker

can bribe enough other countries to take over the occupation of Iraq so they can say with a straight face that it was a "success", i.e. we no longer will have many troops there.

IraqNam is their big problem. BodyBags are trouble

[Wwagsthedog]

2. Cheer up KS!

We have over 10 months to prove you wrong!

[WhosNext]

3. Well, let's get going on things like CONGRESS

Get the Senate back. Make strides in the House. It isn't all over just by losing the executive branch. Janklow's seat in SD could be had by a Democrat.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

5. absolutely agree, we need to get Congress

ABB, but even if the unthinkable happens, we have to do our best to regain the House and Seante or we're dead.

[sandnsea]

4. Remember The Eighties!!!!!!!

The stock market was going gang busters then too. Unemployment hovered at 6-7% and never improved, wages were stagnant, income disparity rose, military deficit grew and grew, until the stock market crashed in 1987 and it took Bill Clinton to fix it. We may have to go back and fight the ghost of Reagan to win, but we CAN do it!!! Don't despair. Liberals are always right in the long run! We just have to prove it!

[Mattforclark]

6. checklist

1. The stock market is going bananas. The -reasons- (another whole discussion) are irrelevant, the numbers are "good news" to far too many people, some of whom don't even have any investments.

- check

2. There is nothing but divisiveness in the Democratic party. Don't believe me?...just read the DU threads.

- half check

3. Most American voters are not in tune with true progressive, liberal values. Yes, it sucks, but that's the facts, Jack.

- check

4. Chimpy has a huge fundamentalist/right-wingnut base that is on a roll. Witness the 2002 elections.

- check

5. The GOP has almost total control over the voting apparatus that will be used in 04.

- check

6. Although there seems to be a lot of internet activism (which we see mostly from our own perspective from DU and similar sites), it is in the greater context, insular and doesn't resonate with the larger body politic.

- check

7. Feel free to dispute any of these, I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong...

- ermmm...




Conclusion:

We have two options. They are:

Option 1: Commit mass suicide. :grouphug:
Option 2: Nominate Clark and have a chance.
Option 2 and a half: :cry:

[BeFree]

7. Bush has lost votes since 00

He didn't win then and he'll have far fewer votes this time as he has lost a lot of support.

BBV is being taken seriously in congress so that problem is not so defining as it was in 02.

The stock market will have to go to @15,000 to have grown above pre-bush.

But be worried. It'll motivate you. We need motivated Dems.

[Demonaut]

18. You forgot Zell Miller

well he's gained at least one.

[tritsofme]

25. On the Friday before inauguration* the Dow closed at 10587.59

The all-time high was 11,723 in January of 2000.

[Eric J in MN]

8. you could try to help with the Senate if

You could try to help with the Senate if you think the Presidency is hopeless.

Russ Feingold is up for re-election.

[alcuno]

9. The only thing that is going to prove you wrong is time.

I correctly predicted the last presidential election (except for the SC thing) and I'm not yet ready to predict this one. * had more money and the media last time. I'm not seeing the difference right now.

Thankfully, everyone one I know despises the guy and wants him out.

[Curious Dave]

10. No Way!

We're going to ride to victory on a swelling tide of the human misery resulting from the failed policies of the Bush dictatorship. The unemployed, the uninsured, the failed business, the body bags. Its sad that victory has to be won at such high cost, but only in this way will voters be able to clearly see 04 as a choice between good and evil.

[Demonaut]

11. Magic 8 ball says..........................false

1 stock market is going well but its still a jobless recovery

2 the divisions in the party are understandable due to having 9 candidates this will end once the primaries are done
3 Most Americans are starting to understand what schrub has done to the country and the war in iraq will hound him to the election
4 The roll was expected and some are suspect.
5 The BBV actions and the requirement that the new voting machines have a paper print out are starting to take hold
6 This is still early and Moveon.org has already started its misleader ads
7 Dude lighten up! we have everything going for us ..including Bush, just about everything he touches turns to shit and the citizens are staring to see the light....Remember, Fool me once..shame on..shame on you...Fool me twice.....you cant fool me again! "shrub quote"

[Beaker]

12. sounds about right.

we definitely live in interesting times.

[Cleita]

13. Go have a beer.

It can't be that dire.

[Yupster]

32. Old Baseball Saying

A team is never as good as it looks when it's winning, and never as bad as it looks when it's losing.

[Capn Sunshine]

14. well the economy is on a crash trajectory for one

but that will just free you up to emphasize something else to demonstrate the BFEE has you cowed

[Julien Sorel]

30. LOL

What is a 'crash trajectory?' I can guess what it is in aeronautics, but in economics I'm not aware of a definition. So please enlighten me, preferably with some data that supports your statement, and feel free to use technical jargon if it will help -- I'm reasonably well educated in the area.

[coralrf]

15. I think postive movement in the stockmarket is another

issue the Democrats have allowed the GOP to define their position on. The GOP pumped that 'Democrats hate America and want bad economic times' crap.....but do you know a Democrat that wants Americans to be broke? I don’t. The Democrats do not need a 'bad economy' and must fight having that canard thrust on them.



The stock market is up..good. It is good for America..good.


Let the economy roar it has nothing to do with Bush. But remember, the brainiacs of the GOP blew this shot when they made Iraq the largest issue out there.

I have stocks..this is hardly a good market.

[bpilgrim]

16. we the people have done it before...

and we'll do it again :bounce:

but it is certainly important to know EXACTLY what we are up against, excellent summary :toast:

:hi:

peace

[uberotto]

17. I'm feelin free tonite so here goes...

1. How the stock market is doing isn't relavent. It's how people feel about the economy that is the deciding factor. Most people don't really feel like things are going all that great. Secondly, don't forget, Gore was beaten (I know, he didn't really lose) after helping lead America into their most prosperous decade ever.

2. If by democratic party you mean the approximately 250 democrats in Washington and the approximately 250 people who post on DU every day, then yes there is a lot of anger and bickering. But if you mean the 30 million or so REGISTERED DEMOCRATS, there really isn't all that much infighting going on. How many times have you seen a news story talking about Gang Type riots breaking out between attendees of a Dean meet-up and a Clark meet-up. The people here at DU are not what anyone would call a adequate representation of the entire Democratic party.

3. Most American voters care about
1. The Economy
2. Health Care
3. National Defense.
4. The Environment.
last time I checked, this is pretty much the Democratic platform.

4. Dean, Clark, Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards have about 2,000,000 active supporters between them. These are people who are actively involved with the Democratic Campaign. Once the Primaries are over, the majority of these people will switch to supporting whichever candidtate wins, which will put them pretty much on equal footing with the * campaign team.

5. Voting aparatus can only be manipulated in a close election, otherwise it will not go unnoticed. A lot of people hate *, a lot more just plain don't like him. Don't expect it to be nearly as close as it was in 2000.

6. People who get their information from the internet are usually more involved than people who sit on the couch and let themselves get spoon fed news from the T.V. And don't forget, more people get their daily news from Jon Stewart than from CNN, MSNBC and FOX combined.

7. Have you ever heard the song Wildwood Weed by Ray Stevens:
"We just smiled and waved, sitting there on that sack of seeds".
What does this have to do with anything, you ask? Simple, when I get discouraged, I listen to this song and remember, no matter how bleak it might seem right now, it ain't over until I say it's over.

[Demonaut]

23. No doubt...

Whats all this chimpin around shit?? was it over when the iraqis bombed the world trade center??

[Lydia Leftcoast]

27. By my observation, the American people

REALLY care about health care. They complain about higher prices and reduced and denied services constantly. They are really scared of losing their jobs. A candidate who addresses these issues in a non-pompous way will have a good chance.

[usregimechange]

19. You are right, we must unite

:kick:

[dpbrown]

20. Unfortunately, Democrats can't seem to agree to nominate a Democrat

With the choice of the best Democrat to come along since Paul Wellstone, Democrats seem intent to let the media and powerful lobbies within the party string them along by the nose to a Democrat-lite.

In other words, I agree with your assessment Number 2.

[reknewcomer]

21. It's even simpler than your seven seals

There needs to be a positive message to offer instead of pure hate.

[LuminousX]

22. Belief Creates Reality

What do you want your reality to be? You either believe we can win or you don't. What you believe determines what outcome you strive for.

[frustrated_lefty]

I contest point #6.

"Although there seems to be a lot of internet activism (which we see mostly from our own perspective from DU and similar sites), it is in the greater context, insular and doesn't resonate with the larger body politic."

Internet activism does not have to be insular. Internet activism is a main source in the Dean base. Every member in that base has been invited to email residents in Iowa and New Hampshire. What we have here is not an insular campaign, it is a manifestation of the classical chaos tale, the butterfly in China raising a typhoon on the pacific. The voice of a small, seemingly insignificant person, matters very much on the grand scale.

edited for grammar

[Logansquare]

24. Pray for the dead, and fight like hell for the living-Mother Jones

It's OK to feel despair, Karl--just don't give in to it.

[cliss]

26. Don't count your chickens just yet, KarlS

There are PLENTY of things that can happen between now and next year. The stock market may be riding high right now, but recall that right after Xmas, the economy usually goes in the dumper because people are broke after all their shop-till-you-drop before the holidays. Unemployment will go up because seasonal employees will be let go.

Remember our GIGANTIC deficit before you start to cry. The shit's going to hit the fan, trust me on this one. I don't like it, but wouldn't it be nice if the timing was right, for once, just when Half-Wit Bush needs things to BE FANTASTIC?

[eridani]

28. On point number 4.

Of course the Repugs treasure their wingnut base! You'd think the Dems would learn from this, and instead of whackjobs that think they are all going to vanish into the sky when Jesus comes, start treasuring their own wingnuts who only want universal health care, and protection of American jobs and the environment.

Universal health care in place of Bush tax cuts favored by 86% of Dems and 51% of goddam Republicans!! How mainstream is that?!?!? And the three Dem candidates that have the gonad to put it in their platforms are regarded as 'minor.'

[Julien Sorel]

29. Allow me to add a few.

Americans do not vote a sitting president out lightly. As hard as it is for Democrats to win the presidency, it's even harder to win against an incumbent.

The economy is picking up. Anecdotally, my company is hiring after years of laying off, so are the companies of some friends of mine; economic statistics confirm that companies are hiring. Wages are on the rise, GDP is booming. No president in modern history has been voted out of office with an economy in the shape of this one. There's about 6 - 8 months for something to throw a wrench in that, but it would have to be catastrophic.

The Democrats are not behaving rationally. The party has no plan, no blueprint for success. I don't even know what it stands for, let alone outsiders. Being the anti-Republican or anti-Bush party doesn't resonate with anyone except a few Democrats. If you want to succeed, you stand for something, not against something.

Partially as a result of the above, the primary message of the Democrats is 'I'm angry.' To which the tendency of the average voter would be to think, 'Who gives a fuck? I want a job and to feel good about myself and my country. I don't care about your anger.'

There's a war going on, and Americans see Republicans as being able to better handle such things than Democrats.

[AP]

31. Don't forget the MEDIA -- look what they did with Arnold. Flexed musciles

I didn't know they had even after watching 2000 election.

It's going to be hard work.