"Strong" efficient market theory disproven on tradesports.com

[swag]

The last trade on the Bush 2004 futures contract was at 50.2, implying that the market prices a little better than a 50% probability that Bush will win. But the Bush Florida 2004 contract last traded at 49.0, which doesn't exactly square with the general contract.

I'm not a gambler, but come payday, I might have to short that general motherfucker, after having first consulted an attorney friend about the legality of doing such a thing.

[JPJones]

1. You are right, but they have Ohio going for B*

and Fla is very close. The volume on Tradesports is not high enough to be efficient, but it is not too bad.

I imagine that it is illegal, but you would never be prosecuted, unless you were a Democrat. Ooops.

[swag]

2. Point well taken re: volume

Gracias.