Isabel Intensity at Landfall- (non-jpeg thread)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

NOTE to DU'ers: I have cut and pasted and removed caps for ease of reading. And I have not posted ANY graphics to keep the thread manageable

INTENSITY:

The intensity forecast remains very problematic. Isabel currently
Lacks a tight central core and strong convection...and even in
Favorable conditions would likely be slow to intensify. Vertical
Shear and possibly dry air still seem to be affecting the
System...so any significant strengthening would likely have to wait
For at least 12 hr until the negatively-tilted shortwave trough
Develops over the southeastern united states and improves the
Outflow. Even then...there is a question of whether the shear will
Decrease enough to allow strengthening. An additional complication
Is a surface front between isabel and the north carolina coast...
With observations in the hurricane warning area of cool air with
Dewpoints below 20c. Ingesting that air would likely inhibit
Strengthening. The intensity forecast will remain 95 kt until
Landfall based mainly on the premise that the large and sprawling
Vortex will be slow to respond to changes in the environment...
Either favorable or unfavorable. However...other possible
Scenarios include strengthening due to forcing from the trough...
And weakening due to vertical shear and cold air intrusion.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/170904.shtml?

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 145 miles from the
Center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
To 260 miles.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an air force reserve
Hurricane hunter aircraft is 957 mb...28.26 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels is
Expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the
Coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 ft above normal tide levels
Is expected in southern chesapeake bay.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/171145.shtml?

[sybylla]

1. Kick

It's nice to stay informed on this, even though it isn't likely to come as far as Wisconsin.

Thanks for the update, NYfromMA

[Cheswick2.0]

2. I still see it changing direction a little and hitting land farther north

Md Or NJ are my guess

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. 105 to 110 MPH winds now.

Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall. However...
Intensity forecasts tend to be less certain than track forecasts...
And an intensity forecast error of one saffir-simpson category...up
Or down...would be entirely possible. (wow! Up or down a whole category!!!)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/171507.shtml?

[spinbaby]

4. Thanks

I would have figured that crossing the warm gulf-stream waters would be a problem but that doesn't seem to have entered their calculations at all.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. I read somewhere that the coastal shelf actually has cooler water

and will not add strength to the storm. I could be mistaken though.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Comments as to Isabel's sheer size

Everyone, when I walked into work this morning here in Manhattan I could not believe the winds were already here!!! Right now in Central Park: From the Northeast at 20 gusting to 29 mph!! link

Un be lievable!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. Cape Hatteras- 75 degrees and FOG!

Humidity: 96%
Visibility: 0.5 miles
Pressure: 28.89 inches and falling
Wind: From the East Northeast at 48 gusting to 68 mph

http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USNC0301?lswe=hatteras&lswa=WeatherLocalUndeclared&whatprefs=

[Don_G]

8. Eye Is 50 Miles From Landfall

This storm is HUGE! It hasn't intensified because of a flow of cooler, drier air feeding it from the SSW direction.

The projected path is to bear into land then curving north in upper Virgina not too far from the DC area.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. Hatteras wind qauge down

75°F Humidity: 94%
Visibility: 0.5 miles
Pressure: 28.78 inches and falling
Wind: N/A mph


http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USNC0301?lswe=hatteras&lswa=WeatherLocalUndeclared&whatprefs=

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. Norfolk (Let's see what's going on 100 miles north:)

74°F Rain and Windy
Dew Point: 72°F
Humidity: 93%
Visibility: 2.0 miles (light rain)
Pressure: 29.64 inches and falling
Wind: From the Northeast at 46 gusting to 66 mph- DAMN THIS THING IS BIG!!!

http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USVA0557?x=23&lswe=Norfolk%2C+VA&lswa=WeatherLocalUndeclared&whatprefs=&y=10