More on the upcoming snowstorm

[redsoxliberal]

latest forecast maps:
Sunday Morning:


Monday Morning:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!96!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004121612!!chart.gif

Sunday


Monday


Basically, compared to earlier today, the threat to the east coast is increased. When it looked this morning like NYC-south were out of the woods, these new maps show Philly-NYC and on northeastward need to be back on high alert.
For Boston, what looked like 3-6" earlier today could, in light of new models, be 18"+. Maybe. Stay tuned.

(Those of you on the coast from NYC on up will be POUNDED by winds. This, if it comes to its potential, will be a fullfledged BLIZZARD!

[bigwillq]

1. Fuck

So how many inches is Connecticut going to get? I can't make out a damn thing from these maps.


And when is it suppose to hit?

[redsoxliberal]

4. tough to tell at this point...

probably very little or a lot... there won't be much middle ground with this.
If you tell me where in CT I can help... :)

[bigwillq]

6. By New Haven

Hope you know where that is.

[redsoxliberal]

11. well...

probably either an inch or two, or more than 1 foot.
It all depends on the track of the low... it'll come through Sunday evening-Tuesday AM (hard to tell time specifics.)

Prepare for 1 foot +, but you MAY not get it.

[jonnyblitz]

7. I am near Mohegan Sun casino near norwich/new london in CT

you can start THERE if you like. I am curious. thanks! :P :hi:

[redsoxliberal]

12. here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=105&topic_id=2233284#2233442

[TrueAmerican]

2. Who cares about the East Coast

You guys aren't the center of the universe.

[bigwillq]

3. A "True American"

would care about the entire U.S.A. :P

[bobbieinok]

5. sarcasm????? this is MSavage and Pranger talk

[Dogmudgeon]

8. Looks like it will be ocean-driven

The Atlantic is somewhat warmer than it usually is this time of the year, so a coastal storm will have more power as well as more precipitation. The UKMet predicts the storm to deepen to about 970 mB, so my own guesstimate would be for the "sweet spot" of snow accumulation to be around 30-36 inches. Since the incoming air is so cold, this "spot" could be 200 miles wide, like the storms of 3/13/93 and 1/8/96.

And 48-96 hours later, another storm is likely.

--p!

[bigwillq]

9. 30-36 inches WTF?

I hate snow.

[Dogmudgeon]

13. Not too sure!

IF the North Atlantic blocking high stays strong, and IF the Arctic air mass continues to slow down, THEN we could easily have a blizzard. But if that high weakens, the storm will track out to sea; if the arctic air is reinforced, it will get colder, but the storm will move faster and there will be less snow.

The moral of the story? Keep a little extra food around the house, make sure your emergency kits are up to date, and rent a couple of DVDs or get some books to read for the duration. And if the storm fails to appear, no harm has been done.

--p!

[redsoxliberal]

15. yeah... that's about right.

[roguevalley]

10. Enjoy my snow. Its raining in Alaska right now. Of course, it can't

be global warming ...

[dolo amber]

14. Is Milwaukee in the clear?

Not heard anything about it here, but the first map looks like maybe...unless I'm reading it wrong, which is wholly probable. :shrug:

[redsoxliberal]

16. very much so.

[dolo amber]

18. Cool...thanks!

Best of luck to the rest of you, tho. :scared:

[johnnie]

17. Please let it miss Cleveland

Please let it miss Cleveland Please let it miss Cleveland
Please let it miss Cleveland Please let it miss Cleveland
Please let it miss Cleveland Please let it miss Cleveland
Please let it miss Cleveland Please let it miss Cleveland

I hope that is enough chanting.(or begging)

[redsoxliberal]

19. you will get slammed by lake effect next week I think

[sadinred]

21. How do you know so much? Do you study it? Sail? What?

I'm impressed and really appreciate the heads up - my mom's in western Ma. I'm relaying your messages to her. :hi:

[redsoxliberal]

23. I'm actually a sophmore in high school

just very interested in three things:
Red Sox
Politics
Weather

I study it, and exchange emails with professional mets who teach me. I've been doing it for a couple years, so I'm getting there...

Western MA may not get too much because of a very tight gradient... but she should definitely keep her eyes open!

[Zenlitened]

31. Red Sox, politics and weather?

You have a high tolerance for uncertainty, don't you? :D


:toast:

[redsoxliberal]

32. ha ha ha

you're a clever one, aren't ya?

[sadinred]

33. Wow, good for you! You will get there, no doubt!

I went to Brookline High. I loved Boston and miss it still.
Keep warm up there.:hi:

[redsoxliberal]

35. thanks!

[Green Mountain Dem]

20. Hmmmm...should I buy....

that snowblower tomorrow... I am at the 2000ft level in the Green Mountains of Vermont??

[redsoxliberal]

24. maybe... the current runs dont support it, but

the trend seems to support it. I'll tell you tomorrow night.

[Bouncy Ball]

22. Will it be cold in Texas?

We consider cold to be a blizzard. And by cold I mean below 32 degrees.

No wait, that's WAY cold. Cold is between 32 and 55 degrees, sorry.

[redsoxliberal]

26. maybe next week...

maybe

[Lorien]

30. It's been in the 30s and 40s here in Florida

heating oil prices are sky high, and most Florida homes are poorly insulted. Hope there aren't many fires from space heaters this week!

I feel for everyone up North. I went through the blizzard of '76 in Ohio.It can get impressive up there! But hell, we had THREE hurricanes hit our city this year, and we still haven't recovered. Wherever you are, there's SOMETHING disagreeable weather-wise!

[LeftPeopleFinishFirst]

25. I live in upstate NY

on the light blue in the first map...

does that mean I get a snow day on Monday? :D

[redsoxliberal]

27. lake effect snows

would be very difficult to predict at this point. Where do you live?

[LeftPeopleFinishFirst]

28. Near Glens Falls/Albany

but the lake I live near is not big enough for lake effect snows. :(

[redsoxliberal]

29. you may get some from the Nor'Easter...

but don't count on it. The chances of you getting >1" are less than 50% IMO.

[mwdem]

34. I'm leaving for Chicago for the weekend.

What's happening there? I'm flying out from K.C.

[redsoxliberal]

36. should be fine.

[mwdem]

37. Thanks!

[Cheswick2.0]

38. What do the colors mean on the top map?

[cedahlia]

39. help please

I'm having trouble interpreting the maps...

How's it look for PA and northern MD? Blizzard?

Thanks for your informative forecasting! I think you've got a future, kid! ;-)

[redsoxliberal]

40. not very good... maybe an inch.

[cedahlia]

41. thanks!

You're way better than the Weather Channel! :-)

[redsoxliberal]

42. haha thanks!

[bicentennial_baby]

43. Western Mass? Monday morning?

I have a final exam at 10:30 a.m....What are my chances?

[Dogmudgeon]

44. ... and out to sea it goes ...

The Arctic blast is strong and getting stronger, so this is one snowstorm that will be tracking out to sea. That, too, could change, but it would require that Atlantic blocking high to turn into a monster itself to bring us a renewed snowstorm threat.

How much snow do I expect? Two or three inches, tops, where I live (just north-east of Philly). Boston may get six inches or so. No matter how much or little snow there is, the cold air will be some of the coldest in years for most areas.

The next storm is getting into shape, too, but it will be tracking south. Philly and DC will get the most, but it's a smaller system, so I'm thinking 8" max.

--p!