Some interesting population-related math about the tsunami death rate

[Rabrrrrrr]

I'm always curious about the numbers like this, so here are some:

Assuming that 100,000 people died from the tsunamis, and let's say those deaths were evenly distributed over 4 days, that means, with our current world population growth rate of 20.24/1,000 population and death rate of 8.86/1,000 population, and taking a world population of 6 billion (just to make the numbers easier), and assuming that the average death rate remained constant outside the death rate from the tsunamis, we get two interesting things:

1) Our daily death rate went up from 145,000 people dead per day to 170,000 people per day (about a 17 percent increase).

2) The 100,000 who died were "replaced" (please, I'm speaking mathematically here, not emotionally, so don't get your undies in a knot because I used the word "replaced", and also note that I'm using quotes) in just over 12 hours (using a net population growth rate of 11.38/1,000 population). If we use just the 20.24/1,000 population birth rate, those 100,000 were "replaced" in 7 hours 12 minutes.

(numbers according to the World Fact Book, 2004)

(I remember doing the same math after 9-11, and was surprised at how quickly those 3,000 people killed in the WTC attack were "replaced": just about 24 minutes)

[kick-ass-bob]

1. why would you distribute it over 4 days?

I would think all those people died that day, making it a 69% increase...

[SheilaT]

2. The point really is

that even in a terrible disaster like this, the population growth rate is such that there's no noticeable dent in the increase of people.

[Rabrrrrrr]

5. Because all those people didn't die in one day

A majority might have, but we really don't know. I'm sure many died the next day, and the day after, and the day after, and many continue to die.

I could have done some more complex and more realistic math, but didn't feel like taking the time, and didn't feel it essential. Doing an even distribution over 4 days simply made the calculation easier.

[kick-ass-bob]

6. OK. I was just thinking that no one would have survived in

that mess for more than a few hours.

[DS1]

8. I died and then came back as as sockpuppet and

was then killed again, so subtract one from all your numbers please.

[pmbryant]

14. It only takes minutes to drown

I'm sure many died the next day, and the day after, and the day after, and many continue to die.

The tsunami was a one-time thing. It doesn't keep happening day after day. Why do you assume people are continuing to die from a tsunami that is long gone?

--Peter

[Rabrrrrrr]

18. Why does it f-ing matter what I assume?

Is something bothering you about it?

I'm assuming that not everyone died instantly because to assume that everyone died instantly is foolish and moronic. There will be many people who would have suffered internal bleeding, external cuts, probably limbs ripped off who will take a day or more to die. People catching their death of cold and exposure, people dying from some other disease - rusty nails into their stomachs, swallowing too much sea water, drinking non-potable water. More than likely there were peple trapped who died of suffocation. There's been enough time that people could die of dehydration.

many horrible ways to die from a flood; it doesn't have to be 100% instant drowning.

[pmbryant]

19. Clarification

It sounded like you were assuming death from the tsunami was an ongoing process that was continuing indefinitely. Sorry if my post came off the wrong way. I was just looking for clarification.

Interesting calculation.

[Rabrrrrrr]

20. Gotcha!

Sorry for the yelling.

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

3. "REPLACED" How dare you!!! These are people!!!!

My God has EVERYONE lost their heart????


















:)

[Rabrrrrrr]

4. Well, I'm just a bitter old engineer/scientist

who couldn't give a damn about individual lives. :-)

[kick-ass-bob]

7. How about a statistician who deals with vital statistics every day?

That would be me.

Heard in our office:
"Unfortunately, these people have not died."
In reference to having firm information on a person.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. Your A Statistician, Too!

Cool! Now i fell less lonely! We numbers geeks don't get too much company, 'round here.
The Professor

[DS1]

10. That's funny, I could have sworn I've seen you two get in a fight

over statistics which devolved into a pissing match before.

Maybe you were both drunk :shrug:

Maybe I was drunk :shrug:

[ProfessorGAC]

11. Me & Bob?!?!? Never!!!!

I don't fight with anyone! Ok, that's a lie, but i don't think i've ever gotten into a fight with KAB. Maybe, but since i mostly DU during the daytime hours, i don't think i was drunk enough to forget that.
The Professor

[kick-ass-bob]

12. No - I know I haven't gotten into a fight with P-GAC.

I keep notches.

:evilgrin:

[kick-ass-bob]

13. I'll have to remember some statistician jokes.

You know, the ones that no one but statisticians would EVER laugh at.

[regularguy]

15. You mean like the statistician who drowned in a lake

whose average depth was 3 feet?

[tk2kewl]

16. D'oh!

:+

[AllegroRondo]

17. I remember a similar statistic

There are more people alive right now than have died over the entire history of the human race.