Monday's BCS standings

[AWD]

It's a close battle this week for the BCS standings, but this is as close as I can calculate them. This is an educated guess, but as many will attest...my educated guesses last year on the BCS were usually right (I predicted it the week OSU was ranked #1 over Miami, and then also when Miami overtook OSU the next week)

After doing all the calculations, here's what I've come up with - my margin of error is a half-point, which affects 2-3 and 8-10.

1 - oklahoma - 2.20
2 - FSU - 7.61
3 - USC - 7.71
4 - Ohio State - 11.10
5 - LSU - 13.06
6 - Miami - 13.64
7 - Va Tech - 14.00
8 - Iowa - 21.58
9 - Georgia - 21.85
10 - Michigan - 21.88

FSU's future schedule vs. USC's make it the Trojans' race to lose. Miami will be adjusted if they win out, and we very well could have a Rose Bowl rematch of OSU/Miami this year.

If ALL these teams win out (and it's possible, with the exception of OSU/Mich), here's how it will finish out, based on schedule strength and poll points (example - OSU will have beaten 3 more ranked teams, Miami 2 more, FSU 1 more, etc).

1 - Oklahoma
2 - USC
3 - Ohio State
4 - Miami
5 - Florida State
6 - LSU
7 - Virginia Tech
8 - Iowa

Miami will actually have to win an at-large bid to face Ohio State (Va Tech winning Big East), and Iowa will have to win an at-large bid (Ohio State winning Big Ten) to face Va Tech. Both seem likely if they win out.

-----

on edit - these are not guesses, by the way...I've taken actual polls and trends, added in strength of schedule including this week, and calculated Quality Points for beating BCS-ranked opponents.

[joeybee12]

1. Your predictions are probably accurate, BUT that proves the BSC is a joke!

Come on, no way should Florida State or OSU be in a position to play for the championship this year--both are vastly over-rated.

[VermontDem2004]

3. Both are one less teams?

Would you rather have 2 loss team Michigan up in the top 5 or two loss team Iowa or Georgia in the top 5? Hell why not throw 5 loss Arizona State in the top 5. And if both are overrated OSU will lose to either Michigan or Michigan State and FSU will lose to N.C. State or Florida.

[joeybee12]

4. It means a two-loss team with a better schedule can handle a one-loss

team playing high school teams.

They need a play-off system---that's the only way the best team will come out on top.

[VermontDem2004]

5. Let me say this again if Ohio State and Florida State are overrated

Then Ohio State will lose to Michigan State or Michigan not necessarily high school teams and Florida State will lose to N.C. State or Florida or both teams will probaly lose to both teams. A playoff system would ruin college football plus a playoff system would require two teams to possible play 18 games and the playoff games would be played in December when alot of schools are having their mid-term or final exams, you would much rather have student athletes focuse on that rather then putting all their focus on winning the national championship. Plus the regular season is the national championship, you lose two games and your out, it sounds reasonable to me. You go undefeated and you won't have to worry about polls, computers, etc. College Teams control their own destiny.

[joeybee12]

9. An 8-team or 16-team will not ruin college football

Come on, it's not like the guys who play these days are so into their studies anyway. College has become a training ground for professional players, not a place for these guys to get anything close to an education.

Anyway, it's academic (hee-hee) for a while, because the schools get so much damn money from the bowls, they ain't gonna change any time soon. That's what's really keeping a playoff system dormant.

[VermontDem2004]

12. Many are

They do have an academic all-american team and alot of those guys are star athletes with 3.8 GPA but that wasn't my point. It is physically enduring to the players who aren't professionals and less then 5% of the players get drafted next year anyways and many of them don't make their team. My point is this you would rather have the players focus on their education much rather then winning a few playoff games to get in the national title. So who would get into this 8 or 16 team playoff system? How would you design in to where the right teams get in? You know there is going to be some contreversy in that because their will be arguments saying that 5 other teams should of gone instead of this team, anyways like I said the regular season is the playoffs, you lose 2 and your out. It puts added importance on the regular season games that aren't there in alot of sports. Plus don't lose any games and your team will get in.

[joeybee12]

14. Too many times in the short BCS life has a team been left out of the

title game, and there's been controversy. Number three usually has a well-merited beef that they should have been chosen.

Even if you have 8 teams, number nine might have a beef, but it won't be as legit as number three's.

Eight teams means three games more--at most for the teams. They'll only play 10 in the regualr season--13 total--not a drain at all, and is very feasible. It'll put an end to the controvesry once and for all.

[VermontDem2004]

16. Most teams play atleast 12 I challenge you to find me a team that only

plays 10. But if you were to add a playoff system you would atleast have to have a winner of every conference and a few extra spots for team who done exceptionally well and if you didn't that system would be critized as well. So OSU and Miami were undefeated and #3 shouldn't of been there, and only 1 team since the BCS has been introduced a undefeated team didn't win the national championship. Plus the #3 team who had a beef wasn't well=merited, the #2 team either played in a tougher schedule, had a better record, or more quality wins, or the #3 team lost to a much worse team then the #2 team lost too.

[democrat in Tallahassee]

18. Noles will NOT lose any more games and would have beaten

Miami on a dry field. By the way our schedule was the second hardest in the county. Who else plays Miami, florida, Colorado and Notre Dame? Then add in strong Virginia and NC State teams.

[VermontDem2004]

19. I agree

My point is if FSU is overrated they will lose to NC State or Florida and yes they do have a tough schedule, they weren't necessarily playing "high school" teams.

[AWD]

10. I don;t think they're overrated...

Florida State has played the 26th toughest schedule and has dominated every team except two (a squeaker over Ga Tech and a loss to Miami)

Ohio state has knocked off two teams currently ranked in the Top 15, has played one of the 20 toughest schedules...and has consistently won their games, with one slip up.

LSU's defeat was decisive (12 points) to a 3-loss team
Miami's loss was by more than 3 touchdowns
Virginia Tech got buried by a below-.500 team
Georgia has 2 losses and won't win their conference without help.
Iowa lost twice, including to Ohio State
Michigan lost twice, including an embarrassment to Oregon, struggling to even make a bowl game

None of the teams below Ohio State and Florida State can lay claim to earning the spot better than they can....excpet Miami, who beat FSU. But I did mention that will adjust itself out as the season plays out.

[VermontDem2004]

13. Good points

If FSU and OSU are overrated then so is LSU, V tech, Miami, Michigan, Georgia, and Iowa.

[joeybee12]

15. Yeah, but even the definition of "strength of schedule" is subjective

A play-off system is the only way, but I doubt we'll see it any time soon.

[VermontDem2004]

17. You read one sentence and ignore the rest

Ok look at these points Florida State's only lost came to at that time #2 Miami, Georgia lost to Florida and LSU, Virginia Tech lost to a 2-4 West Virginia Team, Miami lost to #11 Virginia Tech, USC lost the unranked California Golden Bears. My message to the college football teams, go undefeated so you don't have to worry about polls, computer rankings or whatever.

[Scottie72]

20. Very good points...

I agree with you 100%.

As a FSU fan I am greatly looking forward to the expansion of the ACC. (Though it will not change a thing about the YEARLY FSU v. Miami game.) I look forward to FSU playing BC and V. Tech on a regular basis. It looks like the ACC is headed to become a very good division. Thus finally there will be an ACC championship game.

[VermontDem2004]

21. I am excited about the ACC expansion

I am also excited about some non bcs teams joining the Big East but I can't wait for the ACC to be powerhouse in both basketball and football.

[VermontDem2004]

2. USC will be #2

They are ranked #2 in both polls and came off a win against the #6 team in the nation.

[AWD]

6. Computer rankings hurt them...

Prior to this weekend, the computers had this....
USC was ranked at 5.67
Ohio State was ranked at 3.50
Florida State was ranked at 3.50

That hurts USC at this point.

But also notice that FSU and USC are only separated by 0.1 point in my numbers for the week. The margin or error puts 2nd place up for grabs.

[sasquatch]

7. Tresell OWNS Michigan and the Wolverines know it

"Bow to me you dirty dogs or DIE!!"



:evilgrin:

[VermontDem2004]

8. bzzzzzzt.... wrong

Get used to seeing him in the endzone

[AWD]

11. I watched all last year...

...and saw NO Michigan players in the end zone.

[sasquatch]

22. I doubt that

The Buckeyes have beat teams that "the team up north" have lost to. The only thing he's going to find is AJ Hawk's face mask.




This what the Wolverine quaterbacks have to look forward for 48 minutes.

[AWD]

23. And....

This what the Wolverine quaterbacks have to look forward for 48 minutes.

What about the other 12 minutes, sas????

[sasquatch]

27. Ooop!! I forgot that High School has 48 minutes and College has 60

My mistake I'll just say they'll forfiet that twelve minutes for mercy;):evilgrin:

[Ohio Dem]

24. College BCS. com predictions for Monday:

1. Oklahoma 2.24
2. Southern Cal 6.02
3. Florida State 9.85
4. Miami 10.92
5. Ohio State 11.47
6. Virginia Tech 12.73
7. LSU 14.32
8. michigan 20.79
9. Georgia 24.99
10. Iowa 25.43

Southern Cal gets a boost in the computers this week.

[AWD]

25. That'd ruin my ego....

...where did I mess this one up?

I gotta check my numbers again.

[Ohio Dem]

26. Oh, you might still be right.

These numbers are based on what the guy who runs the website thinks the computers will do tomorrow.