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I wrote to Krugman on 10/23 at 8:01. I notice some similar ideas in his recent column on 10/31.
I wrote: (also as a DU post that no one answered) "My point is that this is not the first time the economy has shown a one month gain. Every time it does Bush is quick to say "we have rounded the corner, my policies are working". Since I have complete confidence in the stupidity of his policies, my prediction is that this will once again be a mere one or two month bump and the economy will continue to stumble along instead of taking flight. We can see that his policies are working by the increases in poverty and income inequality. Funny how those stories do not get much airtime. Any candidates out there wanna pound at that in your speeches?"
Krugman wrote: "The Commerce Department announces very good growth during the previous quarter. Many observers declare the economy's troubles over. And the administration's supporters claim that the economy's turnaround validates its policies. That's what happened 18 months ago, when a preliminary estimate put first-quarter 2002 growth at 5.8 percent. That was later revised down to 5.0. More important, growth in the next quarter slumped to 1.3 percent, and we now know that the economy wasn't really on the mend: after that brief spurt, the nation proceeded to lose another 600,000 jobs.
The same story unfolded in the third quarter of 2002, when growth rose to 4 percent, and the economy actually gained 200,000 jobs. But growth slipped back down to 1.4 percent, and job losses resumed."
I also wrote: "I also note that the provisional job numbers run consistently high, but I am not sure about later adjustments. Why does February's number go from 130,520 to 130,235 and January's from 130,873 to 130,356? (nb these numbers are "thousands of jobs" so 130,520 is really 130,520,000) Anyway, in Feb, Mar, and Apr of this year the provisional estimate was high by almost 300,000 jobs each month."
Krugman also wrote: "(By the way, for the last month there's been a peculiar pattern: each week, headlines declare that new claims fell from the previous week; a week later, the past week's number is revised upward, and the apparent decline disappears.)"
My tinfoil hat fell off so I think it is probably just two great minds seeing the same truths. Yes, it is true, my greatness is only surpassed by my modesty.
I try to help when I can.
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