Football fans: Does LSU have a shot at the National Championship?

[Brotherjohn]

Are they more/less deserving than OSU or USC (the two teams likely to be ranked ahead of them in the BCS standings released in a few minutes).

Assuming they all win out, I realize OSU will have just beaten 2 Top 10 teams, and that makes a strong case. But if LSU wins out, they will have won 4 more games, including the SEC Championship against a probable Top 10 team. That also makes a strong case. USC has already made their case, but I believe winning the rest of their games may not be enough to prevent OSU and LSU from passing them, as their remaining schedule is relatively weak. And while LSU does not have another Top 10 team on their schedule, their 3 games left against tough teams plus a likely Top 10 team for the SEC Championship makes their schedule equally tough as OSU's, I believe.

In another light, with OSU having the toughest schedule remaining as far as ranked opponents (Purdue and Mich.), they could easily lose one. The same goes for USC, with UCLA and Oregon State.

Predictions? Opinions?

[northzax]

1. er, no

nope. none. sorry. In order for this to happen, the following scenario would have to play out.

1: OU loses. twice.

2: USC loses.

3: Ohio State loses.

4: Texas loses.

5: Michigan loses.

ok, all of those things happen, and LSO might have a change. otherwise, enjoy Tempe.

[GumboYaYa]

3. MI and TX losses are not necessary.

No way a two-loss team jumps a one-loss team to get to the MNC.

Ohio State is questionable. It depends upon who LSU gets in the SEC championship game and where the two fall in the AP and Coaches poll at season end. LSU jumps USC only if USC loses.

[Brotherjohn]

4. That's what I was about to post. I don't think MI and TX losses are...

... necessary at all. If TX beats A&M and Tex Tech, and LSU wins 4 more, including the SEC championship against a Top 10 team, there's no way TX will pass LSU. MI could feasibly pass LSU is they win out and beat OSU. But remember, for that to happen, they'd have to beat OSU (which would knock them down a peg). And then there's what you point out, that it's not likely that a two loss team (OSU, MI or TX) is going to jump ahead of a one loss team.

MI will very possibly lose to OSU, anyway. If they do, that takes care of them for good. OSU could very easily lose to Purdue, and that takes care of them, IMHO. These are "ifs", but not incredibly unlikely ones. The least likely to fall will be USC, who seems to have the easiest schedule remaining.

Of course, it all comes down to winning the rest of your games, for anyone, especially LSU.

But I think people are underestimating the boost LSU would get if they were to win their last three games AND the SEC Championship game. I guess my point is: IF LSU wins out, their stock will climb dramatically and they may have a shot. Of course, if they don't, it's all academic.

[northzax]

12. if one loss teams can leap no-loss teams

then a two loss can leap a one loss, that's irrelevant.

another negative for LSU is that their quality win is against Georgia, who will drop from the BCS top ten this week, most likely (or at least to 9 or 10. LSU then can only hope that Tennessee wins out, and Georgia loses again, giving them a chance at a decent team in the SEC championship game.

either way, under the ranking released today, LSU is a full 6 points behind OSU, and 7 behind USC. They need not only help from the teams above them, but also from the teams behind them. If OSU beats purdue this weekend, and loses to Michigan, which wins out, Michigan gets number 4 in the polls, and rises to probably 4 in the BCS. giving them a likely total of about 7 points, which is exactly what LSU has. If LSU gets Florida in the SEC title game, they end up with no quality wins, and voila! gonesville.

in any rate, it isn't going to happen.

[AWD]

18. Thanks for backing me up

It's just not gonna happen. They do not control their own destiny anymore. They're too far back and they can't make up ground on their own.

It HAS to be on account of an OSU loss AND a USCloss...and Michigan may jump over them if they knock off OSU.

[northzax]

20. you mean they need a USC loss

cause the buckeyes are fixin' for one.

[GumboYaYa]

2. First, they need to win the games left.

I am trying really hard not to get my hopes up yet. As a lifelong LSU and Saints, I know the agony of defeat far better than the thrill of victory.

IF LSU wins out and beats a top ten TN or GA team in the SEC Championship there is a good chance they will still not leap USC in the BCS. To do so they probably need to be ranked number 2 in the AP and Coaches poll. To jump to #2 they need to beat the next four teams soundly and hope USC stumbles or at least has trouble with their last two games.

Of all three, USC, LSU, and OSU, Ohio State has looked the most beatable to me. I suspect they will lose at least one more game.

[Brotherjohn]

5. I agree. Still, it's hard not to start thinking about it...

... being ranked #3 for the first time in decades.

As far as the team, It seems they have their heads on straight. Alabama and Arkansas both unexpectedly beat LSU during their end-of-season collapse last years, so there's the revenge factor. And Ole Miss if the team everyone's talking about. I don't think LSU's going to come into any of these games mentally unprepared.

[GumboYaYa]

9. Agreed.

I'm just scared to get my hopes up, as you well understand.

If Ole Miss plays against LSU like they did this past Sat., LSU will run them out of the stadium.

With the way LSU is playing lately, I'm sure there is no one on their shedule who is looking foward to the game.

[AWD]

8. That won't be enough...

Ohio State has a big enough lead, they need top have the Bucks lose also.

They need 6 games to go their way. 4 wins, one USC loss, one Ohio State loss.

The BCS points can't be made up on their own...others have to fall.

[GumboYaYa]

10. Not true if you factor in an SEC Championship game

against a top ten team. Besides, Ohio State will be lucky to win another game this year. :)

[AWD]

14. No, it's true...

...they can't possibly make up 8 full BCS points without both teams losing. Doesn't matter who they play, they can't possibly do it.

And I've been hearing the doomsayers saying Ohio State won;t win for 2 years. Teams don't win 23 of 24 because they're lucky.

[northzax]

15. more games than that

they also need Tennessee to win two more. that makes 8 games.

[AWD]

6. Only if OSU and USC lose

ON EDIT - BCS standings are out - LSU does need BIG miracles...they're 7 points back of USC.

They don't have a way of passing either team without a loss.

And both teams are playing their best ball all season right now.

Winning 4 games doesn't help them, especially considering the 4 teams are not BCS ranked at all. They can't climb up any polls without teams above them losing, and the strength of schedule won't be helped, while Ohio State's is going to skyrocket.

Losses are your only hope right now.

[GumboYaYa]

7. Everything I have read says

OSU doesn't have to lose, but USC must in order for LSU to make it to the championship game. If the SEC championship game is against a top ten team (TN or GA at this point) LSU would get enough style points from a victory to pass Ohio State. USC is very unlikely, but is a remote possibility if LSU can jump them in the AP and Coaches polls by season end.

[Brotherjohn]

11. I sort of agree. USC and OSU probably both have to lose, but...

...I think an OSU loss is very possible, if not likely (of course, so is an LSU loss, but I'm thinking hypothetically). If LSU runs the table, their last win will be against a likely Top 5 team, and that will influence the voters in the AP and USAToday polls. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that they'd pass USC in those polls by winning 4 more games, including the SEC championship.

Strength of schedule, and apparently, the way the individual computer polls rank LSU, are an obstacle, though. I don't see why they consistently have LSU much lower than the voter polls. One can complain all they want about the SEC being underrated by the voters, but they've got LSU at 3 in both polls, whereas the computer polls rank LSU an average of 6.5 (and most are 8 or 9). THAT's primarily what's hurting LSU in the BCS the most, ore than schedule strength (from a points standpoint, anyway). If they had LSU rated the same as AP and USAToday, LSU would pick up almost 4 points right there.

I wonder if the 7 computer polls BCS uses consider margin of victory, etc.?

[northzax]

13. no more margin of victory

in the BCS.

Remember, Quality Wins only matters where the team ends up at the end of the season. And while LSU will get a top 8 team to play (assuming either Georgia or Tennessee wins out, otherwise they get Florida if they win out) so will Ohio State likely meet Michigan, both top-5 in the polls in three weeks (if everyone wins, the scenario we're playing with) so it'll be a toss-up there.

[AWD]

17. Not possible..

If LSU runs the table, their last win will be against a likely Top 5 team, and that will influence the voters in the AP and USAToday polls.

Even if the SEC title game was aggainst another Top 5 team (and it won't be without an OSU loss and Northwestern beating Michigan), the AP poll and USA today poll already has LSU at #3. They CAN'T improve on that without an USC loss, and even with that, they'd only gain one BCS point. Impressing those voters don't mean a thing because they can't possible rise any higher.

It;s VERY simple. They can't get in on their own. It's impossible. They HAVE to have USC and OSU lose.

[AWD]

16. You're reading the wrong publications

LSU is 6 full BCS points behind Ohio State. There is NO conceivable way to make those up without Ohio State losing. Their strength of schedule (14th) is already WAY WAY higher than LSUs (65th) and it will go up with 2 Top 10 teams left on the schedule.

Even with LSUs remaining games, they won't crack the Top 40 in strength of schedule. Can't make up any points thay way.

And OSU is polling WAY higher in the computer polls, and just slightly down in the human polls.

The only possible way to make those up is for OSU to fall in the polls, and they won't do that without a loss.

And "style points" don't exist in the BCS formula. Quality points help out, but we're talking fractions of a point, and yu only get them if the team you beat is in the Top 10 AFTER you beat them. Besides, how could you think that beating one Top 10 team (if one gets there) would be worth more than Ohio State beating TWO Top 10 teams.

[donotpassgo]

19. NOT AFTER THEY GET TROUNCED AGAINST OLE MISS!!!!!

Hotty Toddy BeeeeeeeeeeeeeYatch!!!!!!!

[fishnfla]

21. Hey who dat?

who let this guy in here?

Who will LSU play in the SEC championship game? Florida? Uh-oh.

For the record: geaux tigers, but gators already beat you once.

edit punctuation

[argyl]

22. Not if they have to play OU.

xx

[PVnRT]

23. Only if USC loses

and if Ohio State loses to Michigan - even then it might be dicey. And, remember, LSU still has a conference championship game to play, and those are almost always toss-ups, regardless of who is playing.