Hurricane models put Katrina entering south of New Orleans.

[Maddy McCall]

Latest run computer models put Katrina making landfall south of New Orleans, which would be catastrophic for the Big Easy.

I'm 100 miles north of New Orleans. I've put my studies on hold today so that I can go get necessities. DUers in New Orleans and surrounding area, please go ahead and make reservations at a hotel. Hotels in the nearby city here area already booked solid.

I expect New Orleans to issue mandatory evacuation orders tomorrow morning. My DU friends in NO, please get out before the mandatory orders are issued.

Here are the latest models:

[jim3775]

1. If it stalls it could gain stregnth to a cat 4 or 5

VERY bad news for NOLA.

[Maddy McCall]

2. Last info I have puts it at definitely a Cat 4.

It is stalling right now.

I hope NO never sees a dead-on hit from a Cat 5.

[CitrusLib]

25. I can't even comprehend that.

Having gone through Frances and Jeanne last year and seeing what that wrought, I can't even imagine a Cat 5 striking a below sea level urban area. *shudder*

[Fenris]

3. That's not good.

Good luck, Maddy. Hope you don't get hit too hard. :hug:

[XNASA]

4. Who is "XTRP"?

I like their style.

[Maddy McCall]

6. That stands for extrapolation. It isn't a model...

it shows the tangent for the track.

[XNASA]

8. Damn.

[spinbaby]

5. That would be very bad

New Orleans barely ducked a disaster last year when that one hit just east of the city. Don't remember which hurricane that was--they all run together.

[cyr330]

7. wow

I lived in New Orleans for years. They have said that should a hurricane make a direct hit and travel up the Mississippi River and across Lake Ponchartrain, there could conceivably be a 30-40 foot storm surge. I wouldn't want to be around for that. Imagine all the dead rats, snakes, garbage, bodies, and the heat with no electricity. Furthermore, there would be nowhere for the water to drain with the pumps overwhelmed, so it could be weeks before they could even start making repairs. Yuck. Get out of there!

[Maddy McCall]

12. Read this. It says everything you say, and more.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=105x3923297

http://www.nola.com/washingaway/thebigone_1.html

[trof]

28. N.O. C. of C. has plans for "Venice of the South".

Not really funny, I guess.
:-(

[Zuni]

9. I find hurricanes and storms so fascinating

I hate that they will ruin so much, however and I hope all DUers will take these storms seriously and protect themselves and their families

[merh]

10. I just looked at NOAA

Son of a gun - it is headed towards me right now - Have to see what the 5:00 readings show - it keeps moving westerly - what the hell happened to those systems keeping it going easterly?


Don't you have a pmail or two to answer! x(

:hug:

[Maddy McCall]

15. I'm glad you still have the plywood up.

Go check NOAA now. :scared:

My friend at the university just called. Everyone there is freaking out. She said that NOAA puts the track straight through Biloxi.

Merh, if it looks like it's coming there, you need to get out.

[merh]

20. I'm okay Maddy - I have the ply wood up and it doesn't take anything

to leave.

I did check NOAA and corrected my post accordingly - I have to see what the 5:00 reading shows - it is moving to the west faster than expected. Odd little storm that it is.

:hi:

[Maddy McCall]

21. Well, hon, I'm off to the big department store (:grin:) right now...

to buy supplies.

You have my phone number, and I have yours. If I'm not on DU, let's stay in touch. If you have to evacuate, you know where I am.

[merh]

22. You don't answer your damned phone.

I have tried both lines - :hi:

:loveya:

[Maddy McCall]

24. I'll put the sucker on the charger right now.

:hi: :loveya:

[merh]

27. Good idea!

:hi: :rofl: :pals:

Go shopping and then respond to the pmails you have waiting on you!

Pretty please! :hug:

[trof]

11. Kay-rap. New map:

That little red Monday dot puts me on the bad side of it.
I'm on Wolf Bay, about 25 miles east of Mobile Bay.
This shit is getting OLD.

[GoddessOfGuinness]

14. Oh man!

I hope it changes course!

[trof]

19. Would you believe the insurance adjuster was here just 3 days ago?

From Ivan?
A couple of repair costs came in way over what the previous adjuster had allowed us. They sent another guy to "re-evaluate" the situation.
:-(

[GoddessOfGuinness]

26. There are people in southern MD who still live in temp

buildings 2 years after Isabel hit. Something has got to be done about the insurance industry. By the time you get a decent adjustment allotted, the gas prices will have hike the cost up further!

[Maddy McCall]

18. Trof, I expect another track shift at the next update.

Look for NHC to follow ALL of the models and put the track center through New Orleans.

[trof]

23. I'm tired of runnin'.

Screw it.

[merh]

30. SwampRat won't leave NO

He said he cannot - but he is ready to take to the attic! :scared:

[jim3775]

13. It has stalled

Im looking at the radar and its not going anywhere.

[GOPisEvil]

16. Maybe it's lost, like the caravan of freepers heading to Crawford.

:shrug:

[jim3775]

17. 5pm update WSW

Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 14

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005

...Katrina continuing to move west-southwestward away from the
Florida Keys...
...Watches and warnings discontinued for Mainland Florida...


at 5 PM EDT...2100z...all warnings and watches for peninsular
Florida have been discontinued.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay from Key Largo south and westward to Key West and
the Dry Tortugas.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 24.8 north... longitude 82.9 west or about 70
miles... west-northwest of Key West Florida.


Katrina is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph. This motion
is forecast to continue this evening...with a gradual turn toward
the west expected on Saturday.


Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph...
with higher gusts. Katrina is a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours...and Katrina is forecast to become a category three
...Major... hurricane today and on Saturday.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85
miles. During the past hour...a sustained wind of 81 mph with a
gust to 105 mph was reported at Dry Tortugas C-man station located
in the southern eyewall. Sustained winds of tropical storm-force
are still occurring across the lower Florida Keys...while wind
gusts to tropical storm-force are occurring across the middle to
upper Florida Keys.


The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 965 mb...28.50 inches.


Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
can be expected along the southwest coast of Florida in areas of
onshore flow east of Cape Sable... and in Florida Bay. Storm surge
will gradually subside tonight.

Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 8 inches
over the lower Florida Keys...with isolated storm total amounts of
15 to 20 inches. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected
over northwestern Cuba...and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected
over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.


Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight over the
Florida Keys.


Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...24.8 N... 82.9 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.


Forecaster Stewart


$$

[markus]

29. That is one ugly map

I know that the NOAA Mariner's Map (123 Rule) was a flat circle late this morning, indicating that to some extent it could go just about anywhere.

Better call MaMere and Ant Pam and see if they have plans to get outta town yet.

[Flaxbee]

31. uh, what happens to the animals in New Orleans?

Is there a zoo? Animal shelters? I hope there are alternates for them... anyone know?

And people who leave their animals tied to trees during evacuations should be fucking shot.

[pitohui]

36. animals are not allowed in shelters

there is a world class zoo, aquarium, endangered species breeding complex, i'm sure they are professionals & have an emergency plan

pets are not allowed in shelters, ppl w. pets often refuse to evacuate for this reason

[pitohui]

32. people need to evacuate in turn

low-lying parishes first

last time chaos came w. upper jeff parish evac. in advance of low-lying parishes, if the dennis had hit, ppl would have been trapped in cars, much loss in life

not much time to work w. so ppl at higher elevations should be prepared to shelter in place, canned food, water, etc. rather than clogging the highways

my two cents

[cmf]

33. Not good at all.

They usually manage to dodge these storms when they veer at the last minute. Hopefully that happens once again. I'm not wishing anything on Alabama or Mississippi, but New Orleans would be a death trap with a strong hurricane.

My mom lives in SW La, and last year when it looked like Ivan was heading toward NO, she ended up with 12 houseguests. :wow:

[Deja Q]

34. I'd normally make a prostitute joke...

But not in this case.

Good luck y'all who live in that region. Even the freepers who live there and that's 90% of the state, I suspect.

[pitohui]

35. as an fyi

new orleans parish was a strong kerry area

the true freep or fundy is at best 20% of the pop. in my estimation

[merh]

37. Shit Maddy - they now predict it going into Bay St. Louis, that is

just a tad west of where Camille went in (Pass Christian), that means I'll get the ass kicking waters in the Bay and the bad winds.

Keep moving west :scared:

[markus]

38. I can't see her graphic anymore, and want to badly

or at least know it's source.

I sent it to my sister and mother back in Nw'awlins, but they can't open a PNG file.

I did just check NHC and the 123 Rule Mariner's Map put the damn thing bouncing of Plaquemines and up the Pearl River.

Extremely not Good. The only worse thing it could do is veer NNW and follow the river into town.

[merh]

41. It is not good - I hope your family leaves the city

They are predicting it as a Category 4 when it makes land fall and they say it will probably go in at the river (latest prdictions)

[pitohui]

42. bay st louis, crap!

getting too close for comfort as far as i'm concerned

haven't seen this projection

i hope it's just a rumor!

on edit-- nola.com says it will hit at pascagoula, considerably east of bay st. louis

[merh]

43. The models that they are showing on MS Gulf Coast news

have it hitting Bay St. Louis, the MS river.

I pray it keeps going west to the swamps.

[tedoll78]

39. I called my Mom tonight..

and pleaded with her to take Dad & Maw-Maw to flee inland to Mississippi. They should be leaving tomorrow.

I'm sorry, but I don't trust the forecasters. This thing was supposed to hit the Florida panhandle, and now they have it moving farther and farther West?! Nope.. no trust here..

[mvd]

40. Stay safe, everyone!

I think Florida got taken a little by surprise. They are really used to tropical storms and even minimal hurricanes, and it formed just off the coast.

[Akoto]

45. We did!

I didn't even know about Katrina until two days or so before she was coming inland!

[sasquatch]

44. I hope they don't confuse it for the damned drink

x(