Kat will win tonight and I'll tell you why.

[BlueJazz]

I happen to like them both, so personally I don't care who wins BUT....
I believe that A.I. has a demographical younger audience who (mostly) will
vote for someone near their own age.
If Taylor was dark-haired and younger, I think he would sweep the votes but
again, a lot of the 16-26 age group will go with Kat...

[Duer 157099]

1. Nope.

Taylor will win, because everyone who voted for Elliot will be voting for Taylor.

Taylor will win by a landslide.

Kat has a better voice, no doubt, but Taylor is a better performer.

[redqueen]

2. "everyone who voted for Elliot will be voting for Taylor"

true

:)

[BlueJazz]

3. Well...the reason I posted what I did was..

,,today I went to 5 homes (computer tech)...4 of the homes had teenagers who said
(something like) "Taylors good but he's so old!"
I could be wrong,,but young folks tend to think anybody over 35 is over the hill... :)

[Ava]

7. nah! i'm 15 and I don't think that

I also love Taylor, but all my friends like Kat. :shrug:

[BlueJazz]

9. That's cause you (obviously) have a thinking head on your shoulder

..and think like an adult.

[Ava]

15. yeah, maybe that's why i'm a "nerd"

:P ;)

[Ava]

6. kat did bad last night though

especially with her last song. it's sounded like nails on a chalk board :scared:

(and btw, before last night i thought Kat was a good singer)

[mvd]

11. I liked her second one a lot again

The first one didn't sound quite as crisp as before, and "My Destiny" is perhaps the most boring Idol song yet. I didn't think Kat did badly with what she had.

[Ava]

13. agree with ya!

[Dangerously Amused]

4. Nope, Taylor will win, and the reason you gave is exactly right!

You're right, AI has a younger audience demographic... and they want to broaden their demographic because more audience means more money from advertisers, which means more profit. Mmmmm, money... So they are thinking, okay, what segment of the population haven't we been tapping yet? Aha! Oldsters! If we can have one or two older folks win, then their demographic will get interested in the show and our Neilsen rating will skyrocket, causing manna and gold coin to rain down from the heavens. I mean seriously, how else did William Hung make it as far as he did? Anyway, that is why, IMHO, they took the scoring away from just the judges (who were scoring based (primarily) on talent) and created the fuzzy math call-in voting thing. I mean seriously, who is ever gonna know who the people really voted for? Kind of like elections 2000 and 2004.

And here we believed it was all about the talent...

[sandnsea]

14. It's always been call-in

So I don't quite know what you're basing your theory on.

Oh, and Taylor is the same age as Bo Bice, who was #2 last year too and nobody said anything about drawing an old demographic with him.

[Dangerously Amused]

16. Really?

I didn't think they did that in the very first episodes.

[sandnsea]

21. Yeah really

It's the judges until the top 10 or 12, then call-in after that.

Not that I don't think it's possible the vote gets manipulated, I just don't think they would manipulate it towards Taylow if they did. Young people spend the money on music, not us old fogeys.

[mvd]

22. Plus, Taylor's not as marketable as Kat

You would think it would be Kat if it was fixed.

[Dangerously Amused]

31. See, I think that's exactly why they WOULD rig the vote toward Taylor.

They don't really care about where the viewing audience spends their money after the show, on the winner's CDs or whatever... because that's not money that's going to go into their (AI show's) pockets anyway. That money goes to the entertainer and his/her record company, etc. All AI cares about is getting as big a percentage of the viewing audience as possible, because that DOES translate into money in their pocket via Neilsen ratings and advertising dollars.

AI knows they already have the twentysomething crowd, because that's what most of the winners to date have been. They can already count on that money in the bank. Now they've got to increase the numbers of their audience to gain a larger market share, and the best way to do that is to appeal to a different crowd... in this case, the thirty- and fortysomethings. So they need to give that group a hero and a reason to tune in. Which they did with Taylor. Now they've got to have Taylor win so he can capture the imagination of that age group.

Don't you think that would be a business savvy thing to do?

[mvd]

33. No, because I don't think they can as easily..

steer Taylor towards pop or hip hop. His niche is somewhat classic rock/soul, which might not sell as well.

[mvd]

36. That said..

Taylor has a large fan base and might even sell well with a song that doesn't fit - but I don't think the producers can know this. A big Idol audience won't automatically equal large sales.

[Dangerously Amused]

37. Hold on.

Please tell me WHY the producers would care about how well a winner will "sell" once the show is over? What is in it for them? Nothing. If the winner goes on to be popular and make millions, not a cent of it is going to the American Idol producers. They're not getting a cut. Likewise, if the winner goes on to bomb in the real world, the Idol producers won't lose money as a result. They haven't made any post-show investments in the winner.

The Idol producers' contract with the contestants ends when the contestants are booted, or - with respect to the winner - when the show is over. Whatever happens to the contestant/winner is irrelevant once the show is over. All the producers care about is their own show. And the way they make money is through advertisers and marketing. And the more people they reach - i.e., the bigger the audience, the more money they can demand from their advertisers, since the advertisers will be reaching more people with each commercial.

Thus it is in the producer's best interests to find a way to appeal to the largest demographic possible. Why be content with just the twentysomethings crowd when you can have the thirty- and fortysomethings as well? But how are you going to draw the thirty- and fortysomethings in if it's only ever the twentysomethings who win? You aren't, really. Ah - time to bring a thirty- or fourtysomething winner into the spotlight. Give the older folks someone to root for. Oh - and charge more for advertising now that there is a broader, bigger audience.

It's all about the money.

[sandnsea]

38. I'm 48, I'm rooting for the kids' dreams

Seeing kids get a chance who wouldn't have one otherwise, that's why I watch the show. It only works if it's young people. A fat old 45 year old isn't appealing to me at all. And yes, it is important that they go on to sell records because that's the premise of the show. If they don't, then kids aren't realizing their dreams so it's just a bunch of bullshit. So as to pushing Taylor to broaden the audience, I think you're all off base. If a white male was pushed at all it was because we haven't had a white male winner yet and the producers think having a white male will get more white males to watch the show. Which is ridiculous because young white males aren't going to tune in to watch Ryan Seacrest and the 3 Amigos, not in droves anyway. So maybe we're back to the favorite singer won.

[mvd]

39. There's not that much money in the older folks

AI is still a show primarily viewed by younger people. I hope he does well, as he is different, but he's a risk. It was not rigged.

As for the producers, the success of the Idol could have an impact on the ratings for the show. Not many want to see failures.

[Dangerously Amused]

40. I don't know...

I think that older folks by and large have more disposable income than the twentysomethings, who are still paying off student loans and saving up for a house. And disposable income is what the advertisers are after.


I'm not saying the show WAS rigged, but that it wouldn't surprise me if it was, since rigging it the way I described would both increase the show's ratings and bring in a boatload of cash... and be awfully difficult to prove.


I'll concede that the success of Idol winners could have some impact on the show's ratings, but again, the success or failure of a contestant once off the show is really out of the producer's hands; there are too many intervening factors. However, the success of one particular contestant over the others is something the producers can likely manipulate to their personal/financial benefit.

[mvd]

41. We'll just have to see it differently, then

I don't think there was any way they could have forseen Taylor's success with the younger crowd. And they could have made Bo win over Carrie last year - Bo appealed to the adult audience and had enough younger votes to make it close. And the automatic contracts given might stop if Idols keep failing - that would be trouble for the show.

[Ava]

5. i'm afraid Kat will win

but Taylor should win.

but i think that taylor's hair has nothing to do with it. i think it's just because she's a pretty young girl who will sweep the votes with the teen and young adult females.

[Duer 157099]

8. Kat has been in the bottom (?) 2 or 3 before; has Taylor?

I don't recall him ever being in the bottom segment, but maybe he has.

But Kat has, and fairly recently too.

That plus the gender thing (Elliot voters go to Taylor) means Taylor will win.

[mvd]

10. I'm pretty confident Taylor will win

Even if Kat has a text messaging advantage, I don't think it can make up an 8.5 point lead for Taylor at dialidol.com. Taylor has won over the hearts of a lot of the audience, and I don't think young people have quite the connection with Kat that they did with Carrie.

I want Kat to win, but also like Taylor, so I don't mind.

[johnnie]

12. Stick to Jazz dude

:P


Kidding. :hi:

[L A Woman]

17. It was so pre-planned who was going to win....unreal

From the beginning, they were pushing a white male to win because they have covered every other demographic but that. Chris was the front-runner to win, but the band Fuel wanted him to be their lead singer. Had he won, he would have been contractually unable to be Fuel's lead singer. He was let "off the hook," not voted off.

Keep in mind, up to this point, Simon was very honest about Taylor - "you sound karioke" and those sorts of comments. (he was right - taylor is a bad joe cocker imitation) Suddenly, once Chris was gone, Simon was all about Taylor even when Taylor's performances sucked ass. Give me a break. They decide who they want to win and make comments that they think will sway the American people. And as we know, the American people are very easily swayed.

i am never watching that dumb show again! (i say that every year!)

[mvd]

18. I disagree - I think he held his own

I can't say he didn't deserve it. I'm a Kat fan, but she was a bit more inconsistent near the end.

[johnnie]

20. .

:tinfoilhat:

[L A Woman]

26. ARE YOU KIDDING?

There is no tin foil hat here, just a knowledge of the scummy business of show. They parade these poor, pathetic dreamers out to audition for American Idol, when the majority of the people who end up on the show already have agents and other connections (that we generally find out about much later). Kelly Clarkson was portrayed as the small town girl from Texas, which she was, but she also had already lived in L.A. and had an agent and even made a record - long before Idol. Mandisa from this year was a backup singer for Shania Twain. Paris Bennett's grandmother is Ann Nesby of Sounds of Blackness! Ace Young already had an agent and performed in clubs in L.A. Almost every single one of them have connections.

Every year there is a nerd. Every year there is a dumb blonde. Every year there is a bad boy. Every year there is a long shot that they pretend to break down and then build back up. It is such basic casting. I guess middle America just isn't that aware of how the business works. Politics OR entertainment.

[johnnie]

27. Sorry

I was just playin.

I agree with a lot of that. Even "stars" that seem to come from nowhere, you usually find out later that their father was this person or their uncle was that person. I know what you are talking about, I know about the business a bit.

[mvd]

28. I see what you mean there

It's a popular show in a big money business, so stuff like that will go on. I just am not convinced it was fixed.

[ronnykmarshall]

25. Oh LA woman ...

you know WE don't matter.

People can post and give away who won. But us out in the west coast don't matter.


Fuck this shit.

[johnnie]

29. I'm sorry Ronny

I wasn't thinking.

[ronnykmarshall]

30. Wasn't you babe

and I can't blame the person I was talking about, either.

I was a bit harsh about it, and I'm sorry for that.

But I would think the mods would have a bit of respect for us "Valley Girls".

[El Fuego]

19. But she lost and I will tell you why.

Last week Taylor got about 34% of the vote, and Elliot and Kat each got about 32%. All of Elliot's voters went for Taylor.

[Name removed]

23. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[El Fuego]

32. Dang. It's not like it was Clay Aiken or anything.

[KittyWampus]

34. I can't believe there are deleted posts on a thread about American Idol

[Mutley]

35. I was just thinking the same thing.

:eyes: